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 Post subject: Re: The 45th POTUS - Donald J. Trump
PostPosted: Wed March 13, 2019 4:48 pm 
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 Post subject: Re: The 45th POTUS - Donald J. Trump
PostPosted: Wed March 13, 2019 6:10 pm 
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“Who,” Donald Trump quietly asked the leaves that swirled across the lawn before his window, “breaks a butterfly like Paulie upon a wheel?”

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 Post subject: Re: The 45th POTUS - Donald J. Trump
PostPosted: Wed March 13, 2019 6:17 pm 
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McParadigm wrote:



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 Post subject: Re: The 45th POTUS - Donald J. Trump
PostPosted: Wed March 13, 2019 6:43 pm 
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theplatypus wrote:
E.H. Ruddock wrote:
B wrote:
McParadigm wrote:
Good to have a president in your pocket

I'm going to be sad when one of those crashes, but I'm sure Trump will bring the country together after that tragedy.

I usually don't get paranoid or worked up about flying as I do it all the time, but I have 4 trips coming up in the next month and I just went through and double checked my planes as I usually fly American.

3 flights between today and tomorrow! First one went well; I'll keep you posted unless I die

Update:


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 Post subject: Re: The 45th POTUS - Donald J. Trump
PostPosted: Wed March 13, 2019 6:49 pm 
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Slightly OT but it might tickle you. Our Half Indian half irish Gay Taoiseach (Prime minister) is in Washington for the annual Patrick’s day visit to the White House. He’s brought his boyfriend with him. And this :)



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 Post subject: Re: The 45th POTUS - Donald J. Trump
PostPosted: Thu March 14, 2019 3:14 pm 
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I’m already tired of Beto talk. I’ll just check in with the White Hou-

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 Post subject: Re: The 45th POTUS - Donald J. Trump
PostPosted: Thu March 14, 2019 3:18 pm 
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McParadigm wrote:
I’m already tired of Beto talk. I’ll just check in with the White Hou-

I hadn't thought of that. Holy shit balls! :shock:

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 Post subject: Re: The 45th POTUS - Donald J. Trump
PostPosted: Thu March 14, 2019 3:49 pm 
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Stuff like this makes me think that, once the Democratic primary is over, the best thing Democrats will have going for them in the presidential race is Donald Trump talking about them.

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 Post subject: Re: The 45th POTUS - Donald J. Trump
PostPosted: Thu March 14, 2019 4:13 pm 
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McParadigm wrote:
Stuff like this makes me think that, once the Democratic primary is over, the best thing Democrats will have going for them in the presidential race is Donald Trump talking about them.


His idiot base will eat up every word. It's a good strategy if you think about it, win over the "crooked Hillary/Pocahontas" crowd while more moderate types just poo-poo it as "Trump being Trump," but still voting for him. Democrats better have a strategy other than letting Trump be himself, because that will backfire spectacularly and we'll have four more years of this nonsense.

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 Post subject: Re: The 45th POTUS - Donald J. Trump
PostPosted: Thu March 14, 2019 4:30 pm 
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There’s our guy sticking it to Pence in his own house (that’s him with Trump too.)



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 Post subject: Re: The 45th POTUS - Donald J. Trump
PostPosted: Thu March 14, 2019 4:38 pm 
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meatwad wrote:
McParadigm wrote:
Stuff like this makes me think that, once the Democratic primary is over, the best thing Democrats will have going for them in the presidential race is Donald Trump talking about them.


His idiot base will eat up every word. It's a good strategy if you think about it, win over the "crooked Hillary/Pocahontas" crowd while more moderate types just poo-poo it as "Trump being Trump," but still voting for him. Democrats better have a strategy other than letting Trump be himself, because that will backfire spectacularly and we'll have four more years of this nonsense.

I don’t agree with any of this, and I don’t know that there’s any evidence for it. He’s been underwater with moderates by 30 points for an eternity, and every topic he’s jumped in to message on as president (immigration, ACA, transgender rights, environmental legislation, gun control) has seen an immediate subsequent opposite reaction among unaffiliated voters as a result. The more he pushes against something, the more popular it becomes.

He’s at 90% favorability with Republicans, but you can’t win anything with just Republicans. He crashed with indies early on and his insults haven’t helped him with them on any topic or person, yet.

But then, I don’t know what the impetus for an “if that’s what Dems are counting on” statement is, either, since this has been one of the most policy-centered primaries in a decade.

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 Post subject: Re: The 45th POTUS - Donald J. Trump
PostPosted: Thu March 14, 2019 4:54 pm 
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McParadigm wrote:
meatwad wrote:
McParadigm wrote:
Stuff like this makes me think that, once the Democratic primary is over, the best thing Democrats will have going for them in the presidential race is Donald Trump talking about them.


His idiot base will eat up every word. It's a good strategy if you think about it, win over the "crooked Hillary/Pocahontas" crowd while more moderate types just poo-poo it as "Trump being Trump," but still voting for him. Democrats better have a strategy other than letting Trump be himself, because that will backfire spectacularly and we'll have four more years of this nonsense.

I don’t agree with any of this, and I don’t know that there’s any evidence for it. He’s been underwater with moderates by 30 points for an eternity, and every topic he’s jumped in to message on as president (immigration, ACA, transgender rights, environmental legislation, gun control) has seen an immediate subsequent opposite reaction among unaffiliated voters as a result. The more he pushes against something, the more popular it becomes.

He’s at 90% favorability with Republicans, but you can’t win anything with just Republicans. He crashed with indies early on and his insults haven’t helped him with them on any topic or person, yet.

But then, I don’t know what the impetus for an “if that’s what Dems are counting on” statement is, either, since this has been one of the most policy-centered primaries in a decade.


Look it's really all up in the air at this point. I can understand wanting to start the narrative now that he's going to lose, but I personally don't have much hope of that yet (and granted we really haven't even started the campaign yet). The reason is that I don't see the person in the Democratic field--at this point--who is going to generate the kind of excitement and turnout needed to defeat a sitting president.

In just looking at the elections of my lifetime, it seems the one-term presidents faced an opponent (Reagan, Clinton) who presented a very clear message that a majority of the country could get behind. Bush was hugely unpopular in 2004, but Kerry couldn't sell it to the American people that a change of president was necessary. I think 2020 is going to be the same sort of scenario, so Democrats will really need to put a candidate forward who can not just go head-to-head with Trump, but generate more media coverage (we should already know this is impossible), reach those working-class and rural voters in key Midwestern states, and present a stark contrast to what we currently have.

It seems like it should be pretty easy to beat Trump in 2020, but I think it would be a grave mistake to underestimate him.

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 Post subject: Re: The 45th POTUS - Donald J. Trump
PostPosted: Thu March 14, 2019 5:18 pm 
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meatwad wrote:
It seems like it should be pretty easy to beat Trump in 2020, but I think it would be a grave mistake to underestimate him.

Step 1: Don't nominate a self-proclaimed socialist.

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 Post subject: Re: The 45th POTUS - Donald J. Trump
PostPosted: Thu March 14, 2019 6:40 pm 
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4/5 wrote:
meatwad wrote:
It seems like it should be pretty easy to beat Trump in 2020, but I think it would be a grave mistake to underestimate him.

Step 1: Don't nominate a self-proclaimed socialist.


I don't know why this argument is taken for granted. In the '16 primary there was a self-proclaimed socialist running, and he did better than the establishment moderate among independent and younger voters (which seems to be the growing affiliation/generation). He won WI & MI, which are crucial moving forward. His loss was due to actual (and older) Democrats preferring Hillary. Bernie gets accused of "playing to the base" with pure arguments, but the Dem base prefers candidates like Gore, Kerry, Hillary and now Biden (many were forced to come around to Obama after that primary). Those people don't win. The most unrealistic idea in the entire 2016 season was that Clinton could gain support from anyone on the right, even the republicans close to center. They'd never be elected again; that was a nonsense argument to make and still is. Someone who can cut into some of Trump's margins in Red America, and fire up Millennials and left leaning indies seems like as good as choice as any. One candidate has proven he can do these things. Pete Buttigieg and possibly Beto (never been sold on him) good potential candidates too, tho the former may be too young still. Klobuchar a solid moderate who seems to have a 'down to Earth" quality about her, also a good candidate.


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 Post subject: Re: The 45th POTUS - Donald J. Trump
PostPosted: Thu March 14, 2019 6:43 pm 
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OK, Bro.

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 Post subject: Re: The 45th POTUS - Donald J. Trump
PostPosted: Thu March 14, 2019 6:48 pm 
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No, that's Rob. jeez.

And Klobuchar needs to get over the comb issue for me. I don't care if she's got great ideas, she's got issues too.


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 Post subject: Re: The 45th POTUS - Donald J. Trump
PostPosted: Thu March 14, 2019 7:33 pm 
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I'm a fan of Bernie, but I'm no Bernie Bro. I assume that's the charge. He's got his flaws - not necessarily age, but temperament I think. Actually hoping someone in the 40-50 year old range takes his mantle, but will root for Bernie too. I just am not someone who sees the word "socialism" and runs away. If the word socialism itself is enough to truly frighten you, then certain candidates will always be out of bounds I guess. I look forward to the future when "capitalism versus socialism" is one about the balance between the two major systems that have always existed in America, and not about an extreme hypothetical where America is taken over by radical socialists who destroy our way of life. Public schools, public roads, medicare, yadda yadda... The left can't properly defend these institutions if they can't admit what they are - the collective serving the collective. That is not capitalism. It is socialism. I think the left needs to own it, like it did in our past.

As an edit:

I agree with those who say "the socialist will end up running out of other people's money to spend. I do. Those old socialist countries people fear relied solely on it (also without rights or democracy). No one is arguing for that. Capitalism will endure (it's basically taking over the world), as it should. But it needs a counter-force, and Dems over the last 40 years have abandoned that responsibility.


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 Post subject: Re: The 45th POTUS - Donald J. Trump
PostPosted: Thu March 14, 2019 7:56 pm 
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Trump officially endorses a Democratic candidate for President, but his spelling woes continue:


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 Post subject: Re: The 45th POTUS - Donald J. Trump
PostPosted: Thu March 14, 2019 8:11 pm 
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Isn’t Beto just the feel good Obama MKII?

Wouldn’t it be better to put someone against trump who can be proper attack dog without resorting to his insult and appeal to the stupidity approach?
Someone who can take him apart aggressively in debates and not be seen as some dem Ivy League elite ?


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 Post subject: Re: The 45th POTUS - Donald J. Trump
PostPosted: Thu March 14, 2019 8:36 pm 
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I don’t know what the right formula is for defeating a Trump. I think the points made about the independents not supporting him since he took office (and the resulting response in 2018) mean mostly that it appears he could be an underdog for reelection.

However, in the end the real reason I think he loses in 2020 has to do with turnout. I don’t think Democrats and independents this time around need some inspirational force to get to the voting booth because I think we live in a fundamentally changes society where political apathy is quickly becoming a thing of the past in favor of extreme division and constant outrage. I have no doubt that turnout for 2020 will eclipse the last 3 presidential elections, which were all anecdotally impressive as compared to the ones that came before it.

Also, with Clinton in ‘92, he did not stand for anything and had anything but a clear message. He was frankly guided by getting nothing more than his expected share of the vote while Bush lost a tremendous number of voters to Ross Perot (19%). He was a victor of circumstance.


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