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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Midterms
PostPosted: Tue June 06, 2017 12:21 am 
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I have no confidence that any Democrat is going to win in 2018 in this state. They'll lose their Senate seat. There's a rumor Carl Freakin' Edwards is going to challenge McCaskill's seat.


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Midterms
PostPosted: Tue June 06, 2017 1:58 am 
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B wrote:
Fuck, this is going to drive me bonkers for 18 months.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/co ... lot-polls/
Gerrymandering screws this up a bit though. Dems won a majority of votes for House candidates in 2012 but only gained 8 seats and thus didn't even make a dent in the GOP seat majority.


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Midterms
PostPosted: Tue June 06, 2017 1:59 am 
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Monkey_Driven wrote:
I have no confidence that any Democrat is going to win in 2018 in this state. They'll lose their Senate seat. There's a rumor Carl Freakin' Edwards is going to challenge McCaskill's seat.
For decades Missouri once went the same way as the winner of the presidency. That state took a real hard turn to the right.


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Midterms
PostPosted: Tue June 06, 2017 3:55 am 
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Green Habit wrote:
Monkey_Driven wrote:
I have no confidence that any Democrat is going to win in 2018 in this state. They'll lose their Senate seat. There's a rumor Carl Freakin' Edwards is going to challenge McCaskill's seat.
For decades Missouri once went the same way as the winner of the presidency. That state took a real hard turn to the right.


That's what happens when all the Bible Belt thumpers have eight kids.


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Midterms
PostPosted: Tue June 06, 2017 4:34 am 
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Monkey_Driven wrote:
Green Habit wrote:
Monkey_Driven wrote:
I have no confidence that any Democrat is going to win in 2018 in this state. They'll lose their Senate seat. There's a rumor Carl Freakin' Edwards is going to challenge McCaskill's seat.
For decades Missouri once went the same way as the winner of the presidency. That state took a real hard turn to the right.


That's what happens when all the Bible Belt thumpers have eight kids.

and the lefty birth rate drops below replacement.
Image

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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Midterms
PostPosted: Wed June 21, 2017 1:39 am 
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Looks like the GOP will hold serve in Georgia and South Carolina.

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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Midterms
PostPosted: Wed June 21, 2017 2:41 am 
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That was an expensive loss

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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Midterms
PostPosted: Wed June 21, 2017 2:44 am 
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Yeah, Dems are going to try and spin this using the progress against previous elections that they've made, but good luck trying to rake in this much cash again.

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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Midterms
PostPosted: Wed June 21, 2017 3:07 am 
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dear celebrities: stop "helping"

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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Midterms
PostPosted: Wed June 21, 2017 5:17 am 
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Simple Torture wrote:
Yeah, Dems are going to try and spin this using the progress against previous elections that they've made, but good luck trying to rake in this much cash again.

Thanks for summing this whole thing up for me in a single sentence. Think I' can skip the nat'l post-game that will trickle out over the next 48 hours.


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Midterms
PostPosted: Wed June 21, 2017 1:23 pm 
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The worst part will be all the navel gazing by Dems and "what the left needs to change" articles. It's a seat in Georgia guys.

I can understand the public simplifying this down to a binary "the left or right won" storyline. But it drives me crazy to see pundits play to that and politicians buy in. In every elective event since Trump took office, Democrats have performed an average of about +7 on their market share. That would be enough, if they held it up in 2018 when many seats up for grabs are in more moderate locales, to be a game changer. All this "what I think we need to change about ourselves" fretting is just creating bad press for yourselves, demotivating your base by playing to a misplaced, misinterpreted sense of hopelessness.

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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Midterms
PostPosted: Wed June 21, 2017 1:28 pm 
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I was close.


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Midterms
PostPosted: Thu June 22, 2017 4:37 pm 
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So what? The real analysis needs to be on how the Republicans did comparatively. The Dems doing better is a 'duh' at this point but if the Republicans are making the same gains...what's that net you? If the Republicans are coming out in stronger droves because Trump is galvanizing them, then bully for them.

If they really feel that strongly about guns and abortion that they would vote strongly for the "I don't believe in a livable wage" lady, then fucking give it to them. Dems should just walk away. Let the government turn into what these people truly want and see what happens. Maybe with the Dems out of the way trickle down economics will finally start working and we can truly make America great again.

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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Midterms
PostPosted: Thu June 22, 2017 9:49 pm 
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I'm sure democrats will still do well in midterms, I just hope they aren't still rambling about secret Russian spies behind everything. Just be patient.

One thing that I find interesting is that money seems to be less and less of a factor. Lots of money went in to stopping Trump in the primaries. Hillary outspent Trump nearly 2 to 1. Dems spent a fortune on the Georgia race. It had no effect. Maybe they just haven't figured out how to spend the money wisely. You can't just bombard network TV with ads anymore.

Probably a good thing.

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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Midterms
PostPosted: Thu June 22, 2017 10:05 pm 
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it doesn't help that the dems are still hitching their wagon to pelosi. like her or not, the fact is that she's a polarizing talking point, and a lot of voters will rally against her.


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Midterms
PostPosted: Thu June 22, 2017 10:17 pm 
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Chris_H_2 wrote:
it doesn't help that the dems are still hitching their wagon to pelosi. like her or not, the fact is that she's a polarizing talking point, and a lot of voters will rally against her.

It's not just her. The Dem party has doubled down on backing their establishment since the election.

I expect a Trump-like slaughter of establishment candidates next presidential primaries, even with superdelegates trying to stop them. Voters won't make the Hillary mistake again.

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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Midterms
PostPosted: Fri July 14, 2017 6:11 pm 
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This is more a general Congress comment, but at least the House and Senate, as much as they hate each other, have yet to devolve into this, of which I've seen in other foreign legislatures before.



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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Midterms
PostPosted: Fri July 14, 2017 6:16 pm 
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It's been over 150 years since the last good caning in the US Congress.

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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Midterms
PostPosted: Fri July 14, 2017 6:19 pm 
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Simple Torture wrote:
It's been over 150 years since the last good caning in the US Congress.
Looks like the last duel was in 1859!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_C._Broderick


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Midterms
PostPosted: Thu August 24, 2017 7:10 pm 
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Brutal forecast for Dems: winning the generic ballot by over 54% but still coming up 13 seats short.

https://decisiondeskhq.com/data-dives/d ... -forecast/


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