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Yeah, and I should add that the other thing that still bothers me about 538 (and we have covered this ad nauseam), is how their 2016 data showed Hillary with a win by a fair margin (less than other popular outlets, yes, I know). I'm convinced the polls directly contributed to voter apathy in that race, and had people opened their fucking EYEBALLS in their COMMUNITIES, rather than relying on the polls, perhaps they would have gotten more people out on election day. The numbers created a false sense of security for many, and while 538 was certainly more conservative than all the other outlets, they were wrong all the same.
You're gonna make 4/5's head explode.
Quite possibly.
I agree completely about other outlets, but not 538 in this case. Some had Hillary at >99% which was just moronic and should have been disregarded ex ante.
538 ended with her at 71%, him at 29%. That's not nothing. A couple weeks before the election it had her down to about 55% but then polling turned in her favor up until the Comey stuff 4 days before the election which wasn't fully baked into the polling by election day. Even still, 538's model gave Trump the same chance as a .290 hitter coming to bat has of a getting a hit. And their model was very clear that if polls were off in Pennsylvania (in Trump's favor) that it would quite likely mean that they were similarly off throughout the rust belt and that their models were quite possibly underselling Trump's true chance of victory. Again, their output can only be based on the inputs they receive through polling.
And yeah, it's probably true that if people could have voted again on Wednesday realizing that Trump could actually win that Hillary probably would have won. But it's not 538's fault people don't understand percentages. I suspect that's why they switched to 1-in-4 type of stuff for this cycle.
I'd argue that people who read 538 should have been less confident in a Clinton victory and more inspired to go vote for her (if that was their preferred outcome) than if you looked only at the polls or read most other predictive models.
Joined: Tue September 24, 2013 5:56 pm Posts: 47248 Location: In the oatmeal aisle wearing a Shellac shirt
AP calling it for Tester and Gianforte here in MT. Still lots of blue precincts to report, and the available votes are there, so I suppose it could change for Williams, but I doubt it. Starting to feel really really really fucking sad.
Joined: Tue January 01, 2013 9:55 pm Posts: 13819 Location: An office full of assholes
by the way, nancy pelosi couldn't wait 24 hours before throwing her hat in the ring for house speaker and reminding a lot of people that may have voted democrat this time around why they voted for trump in 2016. nice job.
Don't be disrespectful of King Silver's image. RM will have your head.
If you don't put more meaning into his particular election model/commentary, you're an idiot.
See, was that so hard? Just prostrate yourself before His Infallibility and now we're good.
_________________ "I want to see the whole picture--as nearly as I can. I don't want to put on the blinders of 'good and bad,' and limit my vision."-- In Dubious Battle
Joined: Wed December 12, 2012 10:33 pm Posts: 6932
Chris_H_2 wrote:
by the way, nancy pelosi couldn't wait 24 hours before throwing her hat in the ring for house speaker and reminding a lot of people that may have voted democrat this time around why they voted for trump in 2016. nice job.
Republicans are going to demonize whoever they choose as Speaker. The question is whether Pelosi is still an effective party leader in Congress, and I personally have no clue whether she is or not.
Don't be disrespectful of King Silver's image. RM will have your head.
If you don't put more meaning into his particular election model/commentary, you're an idiot.
See, was that so hard? Just prostrate yourself before His Infallibility and now we're good.
Well, his election models are certainly better than your NBA predictions.
Sick burn.
_________________ "I want to see the whole picture--as nearly as I can. I don't want to put on the blinders of 'good and bad,' and limit my vision."-- In Dubious Battle
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