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 Post subject: Re: The 45th POTUS - Donald J. Trump
PostPosted: Sat June 02, 2018 11:39 pm 
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McParadigm wrote:

Jordan P: Life is actually about crustaceans fighting for power

Burt: It feels true to me so it is!


This sounds made up. Who did you survey?

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 Post subject: Re: The 45th POTUS - Donald J. Trump
PostPosted: Sun June 03, 2018 12:05 am 
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BurtReynolds wrote:
I am 99% sure that I have between eight and eight million dollars based on a survey of the girl at the McDonald's drive thru and the barista at Starbucks, but fuck it: Let's just call it four million and run it in national newspapers as if it's a fact.

Nope, again, this is not how it works. The number that’s being used in headlines was determined by applying the mortality rate increase in their sample population to the population of the entire island. It is not merely the mid range of an estimate. The confidence interval, in this case 95%, is determined based in part on the results and the sampling size.

So a more accurate analogy would be: I gathered data of 10,000 Washington state McDonald’s customers today and found that 700 of these customers ordered a Big Mac. If this data is representative of the entire population of Washington state McDonald’s customers for that day, then X is my estimate of how many Big Macs were sold that day and my confidence interval is dependent on what percent of the total population that 10,000 people represents.

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To call this fuzzy math is an insult to fuzzy math.

Your understanding is certainly fuzzy. This exact type of population sampling technique has played a major role in research of all manner for a long time, including the development of holocaust victim estimates (misunderstanding/misrepresenting how it achieves its figures is a common sticking point among deniers). What’s triggering you is probably the media representation that the number is a known, exact fact, which is not what the study says or what the purpose of such an experiment is. Instead, what it represents currently is the best sourced estimate over the longest time frame that we currently have available to us, and its disproportionately high number exists as a reason to investigate further, not as a final determination...which is how research works.

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Last edited by McParadigm on Sun June 03, 2018 12:08 am, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: The 45th POTUS - Donald J. Trump
PostPosted: Sun June 03, 2018 12:07 am 
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Stickman wrote:
Image


I don’t understand this meme format.

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 Post subject: Re: The 45th POTUS - Donald J. Trump
PostPosted: Sun June 03, 2018 12:09 am 
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McParadigm wrote:
Bi_3 wrote:
BurtReynolds wrote:
McParadigm wrote:
This should be getting far more attention and discussion than either Trump’s bullshit tweets or Roseanne’s....I guess bullshit tweets.


Apparently this number was pulled directly out of someone's ass.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fac ... 6749bc66d2


The day I believe someone who actually read the study over someone who skimmed the abstract but has a verified Twitter account is never.

Yes, the original study surveyed over 3,000 households to determine a mortality rate for that population of 14.3 per thousand people. They then compared that mortality rate to historical mortality data on the island, and applied the increase to the total population. This yielded an increase of 4645 deaths.

Because of their sample size, the 95% CI they provide is a broad range, from roughly 800 to 8,000 additional deaths...all within the range of scandalous and tragic. This does represent a notable increase over previous estimates, but all of those studies fall within the confidence interval provided here. This alone is remarkable, because previous studies examined mortality figures over shorter time frames. The New York Times study which indicated over 1000 additional deaths covered a timeline barely half as long as this study...thus excluding an extended period when the island’s infrastructure and medical care capacity was in tatters...and depended on government-provided data.

So the study does determine that if the observed mortality rates in their data are representative of the island entire, it would mean in excess of 4,000 deaths. The authors do provide a 95% confidence interval based on that data and sampling size, which is between roughly 800 and 8,000 deaths. And it isthe largest population sampled study to be conducted on the issue to date. And the fact check article has already had to be updated because the author doesn’t understand confidence intervals. Maybe smarm over having read an article instead of a tweet should be replaced by reading the study instead of the article.


You’re so sexy when you post for real

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 Post subject: Re: The 45th POTUS - Donald J. Trump
PostPosted: Sun June 03, 2018 12:27 am 
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Yea Burt even strat understands that this is basica Statistics methodology. Its why I fucking hated Statistics in college so goddamn much. Then I had to re-learn basic methods for my current job and this is why im miserable all day every day.


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 Post subject: Re: The 45th POTUS - Donald J. Trump
PostPosted: Sun June 03, 2018 1:20 am 
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McParadigm wrote:
BurtReynolds wrote:
I am 99% sure that I have between eight and eight million dollars based on a survey of the girl at the McDonald's drive thru and the barista at Starbucks, but fuck it: Let's just call it four million and run it in national newspapers as if it's a fact.

Nope, again, this is not how it works. The number that’s being used in headlines was determined by applying the mortality rate increase in their sample population to the population of the entire island. It is not merely the mid range of an estimate. The confidence interval, in this case 95%, is determined based in part on the results and the sampling size.

So a more accurate analogy would be: I gathered data of 10,000 Washington state McDonald’s customers today and found that 700 of these customers ordered a Big Mac. If this data is representative of the entire population of Washington state McDonald’s customers for that day, then X is my estimate of how many Big Macs were sold that day and my confidence interval is dependent on what percent of the total population that 10,000 people represents.

Quote:
To call this fuzzy math is an insult to fuzzy math.

Your understanding is certainly fuzzy. This exact type of population sampling technique has played a major role in research of all manner for a long time, including the development of holocaust victim estimates (misunderstanding/misrepresenting how it achieves its figures is a common sticking point among deniers). What’s triggering you is probably the media representation that the number is a known, exact fact, which is not what the study says or what the purpose of such an experiment is. Instead, what it represents currently is the best sourced estimate over the longest time frame that we currently have available to us, and its disproportionately high number exists as a reason to investigate further, not as a final determination...which is how research works.

It was a joking comparison. Mostly. Partly. A little. Obviously 3000 respondents is going to yield slightly more accurate results than 2. The question is: Are these results accurate enough to determine more than "more investigation required"? Doubtful. And the other estimates already show the official number is likely way too low, so that isn't news either.

But yes! That is what is triggering me. The fact that newspapers ran with this ridiculous number. It's fuzzy math with respect to how it is interpreted (and sorry, but 800 to 8000 deaths is the definition of fuzzy). The fact that there is little else to corroborate. The fact that the range is so absurdly broad that it shouldn't be taken as any sort of authoritative estimate on its own without the studies coming out soon.

I am wary of these surveys, though, not the math. That McD's example above is far more likely to give accurate results than this one, and there are dozens of reasons why. I need to see the specifics of it myself to be sure, though, which I haven't read yet.

From an anecdotal standpoint, the gossip during and in the immediate aftermath of Katrina would have you thinking former friends and neighbors were having pitched gun battles in the street over water. Forgive me if I don't think people are always truthful in these situations.

The fact that it is supposedly the best estimate (I'm doubtful that it is) does not make it valid. i get that these preliminary studies are the best we can do, but it isn't very much.

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Last edited by BurtReynolds on Sun June 03, 2018 1:24 am, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: The 45th POTUS - Donald J. Trump
PostPosted: Sun June 03, 2018 1:21 am 
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what about the missing children tho


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 Post subject: Re: The 45th POTUS - Donald J. Trump
PostPosted: Sun June 03, 2018 1:22 am 
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 Post subject: Re: The 45th POTUS - Donald J. Trump
PostPosted: Sun June 03, 2018 1:23 am 
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Strat wrote:
what about the missing children tho

Hopefully they can give me advice on how to disappear off the government's radar. They make it look so easy.

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 Post subject: Re: The 45th POTUS - Donald J. Trump
PostPosted: Mon June 04, 2018 1:11 am 
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The herd that insisted Obama needed to be impeached and thrown in jail for abuse of power now thoroughly supports a president whose lawyer is actually saying he could physically murder someone without any legal consequences.

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 Post subject: Re: The 45th POTUS - Donald J. Trump
PostPosted: Mon June 04, 2018 10:49 am 
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what on earth am I talking about
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 Post subject: Re: The 45th POTUS - Donald J. Trump
PostPosted: Mon June 04, 2018 10:53 am 
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96583UP wrote:
Image


I met this guy a few times when he was running for office in MD.

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 Post subject: Re: The 45th POTUS - Donald J. Trump
PostPosted: Mon June 04, 2018 12:58 pm 
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Under what circumstances does any person read this and say “that dude is innocent”

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 Post subject: Re: The 45th POTUS - Donald J. Trump
PostPosted: Mon June 04, 2018 1:11 pm 
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I’m going to mass email that first line to my coworkers if I ever audibly fart in an open office environment.

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 Post subject: Re: The 45th POTUS - Donald J. Trump
PostPosted: Mon June 04, 2018 6:25 pm 
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Talking Points Memo:
Quote:
Early on the morning of Friday, July 7th, 2017, The New York Times contacted the White House about a story it was preparing on the June 2016 Trump Tower meeting. The President was in Europe en route to the G20 Summit in Hamburg, Germany. The White House/President asked for more time to respond given that the President was in the midst of a visit to Europe and because of the difference in time zones. The Times appeared to offer some accommodation: a conference call was scheduled for the next morning, July 8th. But that call never happened. After the White House canceled, the Times followed up with a list of 14 questions which it sent over on the 8th.

During the day Trump had his first meeting as President (and apparently ever) with Vladimir Putin. They discussed various issues including U.S. charges of Russian interference in the 2016 election. As is normally the case, they were accompanied by key aides on both sides. But the two men met a second time that evening during a gala dinner for the heads of state at the summit. This meeting was unplanned and reportedly included only Trump, Putin and Putin’s translator. No Americans. (This left everyone gobsmacked last year. But it was before these other details and thus the full context of the meeting became clear.) There were different accounts of the meeting. The President later said it was only about 15 minutes. A senior White House officials told CNN it lasted as long as an hour.

The following day, Saturday, with the conference call with the Times canceled, the Times sends Team Trump a list of 14 questions about the meeting. It’s that afternoon, on board Air Force One returning to the United States, that President Trump dictates his son’s statement.

Here’s the statement.

“I asked Jared and Paul to stop by. We primarily discussed a program about the adoption of Russian children that was active and popular with American families years ago and was since ended by the Russian government, but it was not a campaign issue at the time and there was no follow up. I was asked to attend the meeting by an acquaintance, but was not told the name of the person I would be meeting with beforehand.”

So the President learns news of the 2016 Trump Tower meeting is going to break. His staff is chattering and brainstorming about it all day. He seeks out President Putin and has a highly irregular private meeting with Putin with no other Americans. He discusses Russian adoptions. The next day he takes over the press response and personally dictates a statement which is false and makes Russian adoptions the centerpiece of the meeting

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 Post subject: Re: The 45th POTUS - Donald J. Trump
PostPosted: Mon June 04, 2018 9:05 pm 
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Yeah nothing strange about all that. :gomez:

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 Post subject: Re: The 45th POTUS - Donald J. Trump
PostPosted: Tue June 05, 2018 12:55 am 
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 Post subject: Re: The 45th POTUS - Donald J. Trump
PostPosted: Tue June 05, 2018 1:05 am 
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i just came here to post that


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 Post subject: Re: The 45th POTUS - Donald J. Trump
PostPosted: Tue June 05, 2018 1:09 am 
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Sounds like he sent texts to former employees, directing them to tell lies about his work in the Ukraine if interviewed?

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 Post subject: Re: The 45th POTUS - Donald J. Trump
PostPosted: Tue June 05, 2018 1:27 am 
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*downloads WhatsApp*

*glances over shoulder at FBI*

*Grinchgrins*

*texts*

“This is Paul.”

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