The War on Terror /Central Asia/Mid East/Africa thread

[epilogue]

You guys don't find it problematic that it was a Ukrainian airline shot down by weapons the Russians provided to Iran?

I FIND EVERYTHING PROBLEMATIC

[Chris_H_2]

You guys don't find it problematic that it was a Ukrainian airline shot down by weapons the Russians provided to Iran?

i don't think that's anything more than a bad coincidence

[epilogue]

You guys don't find it problematic that it was a Ukrainian airline shot down by weapons the Russians provided to Iran?

i don't think that's anything more than a bad coincidence

"US Officials" disagree

[verb_to_trust]

Trump saying right away it could have been an accident seems suspicious.

[Chris_H_2]

You guys don't find it problematic that it was a Ukrainian airline shot down by weapons the Russians provided to Iran?

i don't think that's anything more than a bad coincidence

"US Officials" disagree

i would be shocked to learn at this stage that us officials think that this was part of a larger operation that specifically targeted the airliner because it was ukrainian

[BurtReynolds]

Ukrainians can't catch a break

[McParadigm]

Russia has its hands in literally every facet of middle eastern geopolitical struggle. It would be hard to find a situation where one group in the region targets another for aggression and neither is in some way backed by Russia. Sometimes, both are. It doesn’t mean they’re pushing events at that granular a level.

This seems like exactly the kind of scenario people have in mind when they talk about the importance of communicating with ally states and pre-planning minor scale operations.

[Bi_3]

just trying to think through the end game of such a play...Would the goal be to put Ukraine into a position where they need military aid? Thereby forcing a showdown between US and Russia on that front?

To remind US military leaders and US regional allies just how vulnerable civilians are by proving they can do it and to appease Russia (and it’s interest in dominating EU energy supplies) by picking a Ukrainian jet. An intentional miss at Erbil demonstrates tactical precision, the plan shoot down shows a willingness to martyr for the cause. Iran killed over 1500 of its citizens during protests last fall so they have no issue slaughtering their own.

[tragabigzanda]

just trying to think through the end game of such a play...Would the goal be to put Ukraine into a position where they need military aid? Thereby forcing a showdown between US and Russia on that front?

To remind US military leaders and US regional allies just how vulnerable civilians are by proving they can do it and to appease Russia (and it’s interest in dominating EU energy supplies) by picking a Ukrainian jet. An intentional miss at Erbil demonstrates tactical precision, the plan shoot down shows a willingness to martyr for the cause. Iran killed over 1500 of its citizens during protests last fall so they have no issue slaughtering their own.

shit this sounds right. Thanks Bi3

[96583UP]

WWIII body count so far:

US: 1 contractor

Iran: 1 General + 50 people trampled at his funeral + another 82 shot
down by their own military bc it is either incompetent or making a statement so complex only about 8 heads of state worldwide will understand what it means = 133 people

[96583UP]

seriously though - I bet Iran are planning a hard surge by their proxy militias at some point. This is a deliberate de-escalation on the surface but I doubt they are ready to call off the milita dogs quite yet. Maybe they want to lull people to sleep and then strike when everyone has let their guard down. Or maybe sanctions have crippled them and they are a failed state and their inability to manage a funeral and an air defense system without killing their own people serves as evidence of that.

[96583UP]

some tidbits from everybody’s favorite american:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-politics-of-killing-soleimani-11578528322?mod=mhp

The massive crowds for his funeral were partly generated by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’s pressure.

The Iraqi Parliament voted Sunday 170-0 for a nonbinding resolution calling on the government “to work towards ending the presence of all foreign troops on Iraqi soil,” but more than 150 legislators abstained, including all the Kurds, many Sunnis and even some Shiites. Many Iraqi leaders and ordinary Iraqis, a great number of whom took to the streets recently to protest Iranian meddling, desperately want America to stay. The alternative—Iraq as a Persian satrapy—is anathema, and Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi knows it.

[McParadigm]

Shot: “we don’t know any details about the supposed imminent threat. Including if it was imminent.”

Chaser:

[96583UP]

the prospect of certain GOP senators (i.e. their billionaire constituents) pushing Trump toward war and using the impeachment trial as leverage over him is way more scary to me than an unhinged Trump firing missiles at people for nanny nanny poo poo reasons

that said - if Iran doesn’t meaningfully retaliate and the GOP doesn’t escalate - then nate dogg and warren g don’t need to regulate

[Anders]

The highly respected and peaceful Sultan of Oman is dead.

[Bi_3]

It would be ironic if killing global terrorist mastermind Soleimani united Shiite muslims only to have the subsequent plane shoot down redirect the fury to finally oust the ayatollahs

You know Trump will claim credit

[verb_to_trust]

It would be ironic if killing global terrorist mastermind Soleimani united Shiite muslims only to have the subsequent plane shoot down redirect the fury to finally oust the ayatollahs

You know Trump will claim credit

Why would Trump claim the credit when guys like you will do it for him?

[96583UP]

feel so bad for the Iranian people

they don’t deserve a shithead theocrat ruining their society

a very intelligent people capable of much more

[verb_to_trust]

feel so bad for the Iranian people

they don’t deserve a shithead theocrat ruining their society

a very intelligent people capable of much more

Sounds like we need to give them some freedom

[96583UP]

feel so bad for the Iranian people

they don’t deserve a shithead theocrat ruining their society

a very intelligent people capable of much more

Sounds like we need to give them some freedom

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