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 Post subject: Re: Does anyone care about the economy?
PostPosted: Fri June 12, 2020 2:14 am 
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2008 was about CDOs, no? My impression is that that's why CLOs have flown under the radar. Anyway, yeah, it's clear commercial real estate is in dire straits from covid but this was the article I read which added a nice little shit flavored cherry on top


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 Post subject: Re: Does anyone care about the economy?
PostPosted: Fri June 12, 2020 2:32 am 
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right - the bottom layers (which pay the most)

this kind of financial engineering with layers of implied leverage breaks when there are defaults

much like no doc / no money-down mortgages

'covenant-lite' corp lending is essentially backed by nothing

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 Post subject: Re: Does anyone care about the economy?
PostPosted: Tue June 30, 2020 9:23 pm 
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Things are going to get very interesting here very soon, says fringe economist *checks hand* Robert Reich


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 Post subject: Re: Does anyone care about the economy?
PostPosted: Tue June 30, 2020 9:59 pm 
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Count me as *highly* skeptical of the hunger component. The amount of grocery store waste alone is just astronomically huge, and I have enough faith in non-profits and local government to rise to the occasion and allocate food resources as needed.

I’m totally ready for the foreclosure stuff though.


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 Post subject: Re: Does anyone care about the economy?
PostPosted: Tue June 30, 2020 10:10 pm 
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tragabigzanda wrote:
Count me as *highly* skeptical of the hunger component. The amount of grocery store waste alone is just astronomically huge, and I have enough faith in non-profits and local government to rise to the occasion and allocate food resources as needed.

I’m totally ready for the foreclosure stuff though.


I think that second part of your first sentence massively depends on where you are (what grocery store waste when you live in a food desert) but sure, it's a little sky-is-falling. But yes, I don't think he's wrong about housing. We've seen a number of properties listed for sale with outstanding rental contracts. Really only one reason for that.

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 Post subject: Re: Does anyone care about the economy?
PostPosted: Tue June 30, 2020 10:12 pm 
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Just gimme my trump bucks. I'm still waiting on the first one. Should get it next week.

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 Post subject: Re: Does anyone care about the economy?
PostPosted: Tue June 30, 2020 10:14 pm 
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tragabigzanda wrote:
Count me as *highly* skeptical of the hunger component. The amount of grocery store waste alone is just astronomically huge, and I have enough faith in non-profits and local government to rise to the occasion and allocate food resources as needed.

I’m totally ready for the foreclosure stuff though.

Yeah, "unparalleled hunger" is such an absurd claim on its face that it doesn't need to be taken seriously. It's so over the top that it casts doubts on the more reasonable claims he made in the sentence before.

I'm still cautiously optimistic that whether it's because of government policy, pressure, or fear of being public shamed that we won't see evictions and foreclosures as badly as raw unemployment data would indicate.

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 Post subject: Re: Does anyone care about the economy?
PostPosted: Tue June 30, 2020 10:17 pm 
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Virginia just extended unemployment benefits, so you might be right. On the other hand everyone's operating as if this is just going to need one more month or so, when really we're not going "back to normal" until probably next summer.

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 Post subject: Re: Does anyone care about the economy?
PostPosted: Tue June 30, 2020 10:19 pm 
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Mickey wrote:
Virginia just extended unemployment benefits, so you might be right. On the other hand everyone's operating as if this is just going to need one more month or so, when really we're not going "back to normal" until probably next summer.

Florida and Ron mini-me Trump DiSantis did also. We still have tons of local government food distributions taking place in addition to the charity stuff.

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 Post subject: Re: Does anyone care about the economy?
PostPosted: Tue June 30, 2020 10:22 pm 
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4/5 wrote:
Mickey wrote:
Virginia just extended unemployment benefits, so you might be right. On the other hand everyone's operating as if this is just going to need one more month or so, when really we're not going "back to normal" until probably next summer.

Florida and Ron mini-me Trump DiSantis did also. We still have tons of local government food distributions taking place in addition to the charity stuff.


Yeah I mean like I said, I do think it's an extreme claim, but I don't necessarily think it's entirely baseless. I can think of two places right off the top of my head near where I've lived--the Mississippi delta and central Nevada--where I can guarantee you there are not robust charity networks to support folks. Those might be smallish populations relative to the country at large but the idea that local government is going to sufficiently plug the whole seems totalizing.

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 Post subject: Re: Does anyone care about the economy?
PostPosted: Tue June 30, 2020 10:42 pm 
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Mickey wrote:
Yeah I mean like I said, I do think it's an extreme claim, but I don't necessarily think it's entirely baseless. I can think of two places right off the top of my head near where I've lived--the Mississippi delta and central Nevada--where I can guarantee you there are not robust charity networks to support folks. Those might be smallish populations relative to the country at large but the idea that local government is going to sufficiently plug the whole seems totalizing.

You're probably right about that. The point that hunger and food insecurity will/could become much larger than most Americans have seen in this country in their lifetimes is a legitimate point. "Unparalleled hunger" just rubs me the wrong way as an argument to be taken seriously. I get it, he's on Twitter and you get attention by being dramatic. If he's right it would be a shame for his message to get drowned out by focusing on the absurdity of part of his claim rather than his point: this isn't over, things are going to get very difficult for a lot of people, and there probably needs to be policy initiatives to prepare for this now.

It's just too sky-is-falling for me. I think it does more harm than good for his message.

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 Post subject: Re: Does anyone care about the economy?
PostPosted: Tue June 30, 2020 11:22 pm 
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tragabigzanda wrote:
Count me as *highly* skeptical of the hunger component. The amount of grocery store waste alone is just astronomically huge, and I have enough faith in non-profits and local government to rise to the occasion and allocate food resources as needed.


dude

check your privilege

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 Post subject: Re: Does anyone care about the economy?
PostPosted: Tue June 30, 2020 11:38 pm 
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When you guys say Virginia & Florida extended UI benefits, you just mean they extended how long you can apply for state benefits, right? Because that extra $600 is running out in 4 weeks, from what we've heard. Most unemployed will be back to taking in 40-60% of their normal paycheck rather than the extra they've been taking in.


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 Post subject: Re: Does anyone care about the economy?
PostPosted: Tue June 30, 2020 11:46 pm 
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96583UP wrote:
tragabigzanda wrote:
Count me as *highly* skeptical of the hunger component. The amount of grocery store waste alone is just astronomically huge, and I have enough faith in non-profits and local government to rise to the occasion and allocate food resources as needed.


dude

check your privilege

Well aware of food deserts and food swamps. There are still thousands of grocery stores and restaurants throwing away — literally — hundreds of billions of pounds of food per year.


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 Post subject: Re: Does anyone care about the economy?
PostPosted: Wed July 01, 2020 12:00 am 
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Rob wrote:
When you guys say Virginia & Florida extended UI benefits, you just mean they extended how long you can apply for state benefits, right? Because that extra $600 is running out in 4 weeks, from what we've heard. Most unemployed will be back to taking in 40-60% of their normal paycheck rather than the extra they've been taking in.

Yeah, the $600 is federal which runs out at the end of July. Florida (and I assume most, if not all states since even Florida did this) extended how long people can apply, waived work search requirements, extended eligibility to people who weren't laid off but are unable to work, contractors, etc. That kind of stuff. It's only $275 a week so I'm by no means saying that is that going to make everything okay if the federal gravy train stops running at the end of July. It's just an observation that federal relief legislation isn't the only thing standing in between the American people and "unparalleled hunger."

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 Post subject: Re: Does anyone care about the economy?
PostPosted: Wed July 01, 2020 12:04 am 
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4/5 wrote:
Rob wrote:
When you guys say Virginia & Florida extended UI benefits, you just mean they extended how long you can apply for state benefits, right? Because that extra $600 is running out in 4 weeks, from what we've heard. Most unemployed will be back to taking in 40-60% of their normal paycheck rather than the extra they've been taking in.

Yeah, the $600 is federal which runs out at the end of July. Florida (and I assume most, if not all states since even Florida did this) extended how long people can apply, waived work search requirements, extended eligibility to people who weren't laid off but are unable to work, contractors, etc. That kind of stuff. It's only $275 a week so I'm by no means saying that is that going to make everything okay if the federal gravy train stops running at the end of July. It's just an observation that federal relief legislation isn't the only thing standing in between the American people and "unparalleled hunger."


Thanks to Trump we have a shit ton of extra soybeans. And, FYI, those are vegan.

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 Post subject: Re: Does anyone care about the economy?
PostPosted: Wed July 01, 2020 12:25 am 
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tragabigzanda wrote:
96583UP wrote:
tragabigzanda wrote:
Count me as *highly* skeptical of the hunger component. The amount of grocery store waste alone is just astronomically huge, and I have enough faith in non-profits and local government to rise to the occasion and allocate food resources as needed.


dude

check your privilege

Well aware of food deserts and food swamps. There are still thousands of grocery stores and restaurants throwing away — literally — hundreds of billions of pounds of food per year.


yes and they were throwing it away when covid broke out and they will keep throwing it out

what would be the catalyst all the sudden for that to improve?

celebrity tik tok videos?

executive branch epiphany?

socialist takeover of the means of production?

Spoiler: show
the answer won’t surprise you

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 Post subject: Re: Does anyone care about the economy?
PostPosted: Wed July 01, 2020 12:28 am 
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A significant tax break or other subsidy for producers/distributors to distribute to regional hubs seems like a remarkably easy solution. I’m not saying I have faith in congress to pull it together, only that all the moving parts are readily available


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 Post subject: Re: Does anyone care about the economy?
PostPosted: Wed July 01, 2020 12:29 am 
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tragabigzanda wrote:
A significant tax break or other subsidy for producers/distributors to distribute to regional hubs seems like a remarkably easy solution. I’m not saying I have faith in congress to pull it together, only that all the moving parts are readily available


Dude you cannot be serious with this shit.

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 Post subject: Re: Does anyone care about the economy?
PostPosted: Wed July 01, 2020 12:30 am 
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trag,

no no

come now

you said faith in non profits and local governments

and how comprehensively effective are those?

look

i know you mean well

but don’t be so naive

no one cares about the poor and food insecure today

they won’t care about them 3 months from now

i hope i am wrong

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