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 Post subject: Re: Does anyone care about the economy?
PostPosted: Sat July 28, 2018 12:14 am 
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Either way I think it’s clear that the normal rules don’t apply to this guy electorally.

I don’t agree with this, either.

He remains historically popular with his own party, but not because his party can’t be drawn away from him. Instead, the Republican Party has lost 10% of its membership in the last two years. His behavior is so isolating that frustrated conservatives no longer recognize the party that some worked for, for their entire lives.

If America was 100 people, 25 of them would currently be Republicans, of which 24 would view him favorably. Of the other 75 people, only 14 or so would have a favorable opinion. Those 14 would mostly fall under “tepid support.“ Meanwhile, the entire rest of the population has a vastly disproportionate passionate dislike.

His party has suffered in every single special election since he arrived, not always losing but never managing remotely healthy numbers. Republicans in office are retiring in record numbers in part because of the internal polling they have access to. All of this in spite of a solid economy and the fact that the most watched news channel in America has openly turned itself into a propaganda machine specifically for him. Every topic he touches changes the narrative in the opposite direction. Immigration, the ACA, and abortion all have record levels of support right now, apparently resultant purely from his standing against them.

I don’t see any metric by which Donald Trump appears to be anything but a drag on his party, and his own potential for success.

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 Post subject: Re: Does anyone care about the economy?
PostPosted: Sat July 28, 2018 12:42 am 
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Thanks, 4/5 & McP, I was mostly wondering about inflation, int. rates, and jobs. The political stuff seems too early to tell, but then I realize it's practically August and we vote in about 90 days.


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 Post subject: Re: Does anyone care about the economy?
PostPosted: Sat July 28, 2018 11:35 am 
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elliseamos wrote:
Thanks, 4/5 & McP, I was mostly wondering about inflation, int. rates, and jobs. The political stuff seems too early to tell, but then I realize it's practically August and we vote in about 90 days.


Don't worry, the moment this is revised down the lamestream media will spend hours a day explaining it and how Trump had nothing to do with any positive elements of anything, anytime, anywhere.

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 Post subject: Re: Does anyone care about the economy?
PostPosted: Sat July 28, 2018 1:12 pm 
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Bi_3 wrote:
elliseamos wrote:
Thanks, 4/5 & McP, I was mostly wondering about inflation, int. rates, and jobs. The political stuff seems too early to tell, but then I realize it's practically August and we vote in about 90 days.


Don't worry, the moment this is revised down the lamestream media will spend hours a day explaining it and how Trump had nothing to do with any positive elements of anything, anytime, anywhere.

Take it to the alternate reality thread.


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 Post subject: Re: Does anyone care about the economy?
PostPosted: Sat July 28, 2018 1:15 pm 
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elliseamos wrote:
Bi_3 wrote:
elliseamos wrote:
Thanks, 4/5 & McP, I was mostly wondering about inflation, int. rates, and jobs. The political stuff seems too early to tell, but then I realize it's practically August and we vote in about 90 days.


Don't worry, the moment this is revised down the lamestream media will spend hours a day explaining it and how Trump had nothing to do with any positive elements of anything, anytime, anywhere.

Take it to the alternate reality thread.


I can select the data that confirms my biases with the best of ‘em.

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I really hope we get this figured out soon


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 Post subject: Re: Does anyone care about the economy?
PostPosted: Sat July 28, 2018 7:50 pm 
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4/5 wrote:
McParadigm wrote:
The report itself credits a lot of the change to an international trade binge ahead of tariffs. Next quarter may pay for this one’s bump.

Quote:
All I know is that this is the kind of economic performance that gets politicians re-elected.

I’m skeptical that this will help much. 2002 was a shit economy but a terrorism-centered election. Result: big incumbent party victories. 2014 had even better economic numbers than this, but a public mostly fixated on other things. Result: major incumbent party losses. This is another year where non-economic topics seem likely to be insurmountably noisier and forefront.

Also, historically the economy ranked first on voter’s polled topics. Health care replaced that, and has stayed at the top, for over a year now. Meanwhile, a lot of industries (including farmers) are sweating losses due to tariffs that a GDP figure doesn’t do anything to alleviate.

The Obama administration did a pretty awful job controlling the narrative of the economy for basically the entirety of the his term, so I don’t know how much 2014 applies to this year. A staggering amount of people still seem to think that Trump knows what he’s doing economically when all he did is inherent an economy that had finally recovered.

I’ve read the same speculation about this quarter having outsized numbers as firms tried to get stuff done before the trade war kicks in, but we’ll have to see. Either way I think it’s clear that the normal rules don’t apply to this guy electorally.


It's fairly anecdotal evidence, but Republicans seemed to have basically abandoned running on their tax cuts, and seem to be giving short shrift to the economy in general in their messaging; most special election campaigns, if they ever featured the tax cuts as a central part of of their messaging, seems to end by talking about immigration, the wall and MS-13. Maybe those candidates are getting bad information, but there does seem to be an overarching sense that the economy isn't selling as it should, or at least that it's the other stuff that's keeping people at the party.

I think one of the most common threads of Trump's presidency is that it's all about the short term political sugar rush; it shows up in his foreign policy when he decides to hold a summit before doing any of the diplomatic work that would precede it, and it's when they hype up the economic numbers for an individual quarter. I think preceding administrations would have been wary to tout an individual quarter's numbers, because they might have been worried the next quarter would make them look like chumps (it'd be interesting to see how the media and the Obama administration covered when the economy broke 4% during his term).

I think it's still not clear what happens when he keeps doing everything for short-term gain; yeah, he gets a bump from a summit with Kim Jong-Un, but as far as public perception goes, that handshake is as good as it's going to get. Now, even if the diplomatic efforts are successful, it's likely to be story after story for years to come about how North Korea is not doing what the Trump administration wants them to do. It could be similar with the economy, particularly if there is a downturn.


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 Post subject: Re: Does anyone care about the economy?
PostPosted: Sun July 29, 2018 5:54 pm 
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Bi_3 wrote:
elliseamos wrote:
Bi_3 wrote:
elliseamos wrote:
Thanks, 4/5 & McP, I was mostly wondering about inflation, int. rates, and jobs. The political stuff seems too early to tell, but then I realize it's practically August and we vote in about 90 days.


Don't worry, the moment this is revised down the lamestream media will spend hours a day explaining it and how Trump had nothing to do with any positive elements of anything, anytime, anywhere.

Take it to the alternate reality thread.


I can select the data that confirms my biases with the best of ‘em.

No, really, gtfo with nonsense, BI. "Lamestream"? I specifically said non/a-political for this reason.


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 Post subject: Re: Does anyone care about the economy?
PostPosted: Mon July 30, 2018 1:57 pm 
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McParadigm wrote:
Quote:
Either way I think it’s clear that the normal rules don’t apply to this guy electorally.

I don’t agree with this, either.

He remains historically popular with his own party, but not because his party can’t be drawn away from him. Instead, the Republican Party has lost 10% of its membership in the last two years. His behavior is so isolating that frustrated conservatives no longer recognize the party that some worked for, for their entire lives.

If America was 100 people, 25 of them would currently be Republicans, of which 24 would view him favorably. Of the other 75 people, only 14 or so would have a favorable opinion. Those 14 would mostly fall under “tepid support.“ Meanwhile, the entire rest of the population has a vastly disproportionate passionate dislike.

His party has suffered in every single special election since he arrived, not always losing but never managing remotely healthy numbers. Republicans in office are retiring in record numbers in part because of the internal polling they have access to. All of this in spite of a solid economy and the fact that the most watched news channel in America has openly turned itself into a propaganda machine specifically for him. Every topic he touches changes the narrative in the opposite direction. Immigration, the ACA, and abortion all have record levels of support right now, apparently resultant purely from his standing against them.

I don’t see any metric by which Donald Trump appears to be anything but a drag on his party, and his own potential for success.

I don't disagree with any of this. But he's a guy who won the presidency after doing about 2,500,000 things that would have ENDED any other candidate. So the normal shorthand metrics we use to predict elections like the health of the economy are far less relevant with him an office. That's really all I meant. Whether that's a good thing or a bad thing for him and the GOP this November remains to be seen.

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 Post subject: Re: Does anyone care about the economy?
PostPosted: Mon July 30, 2018 2:06 pm 
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The economy grew at 5.1 and 4.9% in the second and third quarters of 2014 and then the Democrats got waxed in the midterms. Maybe the economy-as-a-predictor thing isn't so strong after all.

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"I want to see the whole picture--as nearly as I can. I don't want to put on the blinders of 'good and bad,' and limit my vision."-- In Dubious Battle



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