Does anyone care about the economy?

[Biff Pocoroba]

I didn’t realize realize the debt ceiling was a relic from World War I.

[Rangi Guy]

I didn’t realize realize the debt ceiling was a relic from World War I.

What did you think they were fighting for?

[4/5]

I didn’t realize realize the debt ceiling was a relic from World War I.

What did you think they were fighting for?

[Bi_3]

The answer to the thread title appears to be a big, resounding "no" from the Biden nominee:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/comptroller-of-the-economy-saule-omarova-joe-biden-nominee-11632937029

The Cornell University law school professor’s radical ideas might make even Bernie Sanders blush. She graduated from Moscow State University in 1989 on the Lenin Personal Academic Scholarship. Thirty years later, she still believes the Soviet economic system was superior, and that U.S. banking should be remade in the Gosbank’s image.

“Until I came to the US, I couldn’t imagine that things like gender pay gap still existed in today’s world. Say what you will about old USSR, there was no gender pay gap there. Market doesn’t always ‘know best,’” she tweeted in 2019. After Twitter users criticized her ignorance, she added a caveat: “I never claimed women and men were treated absolutely equally in every facet of Soviet life. But people’s salaries were set (by the state) in a gender-blind manner. And all women got very generous maternity benefits. Both things are still a pipe dream in our society!”

....

In a recent paper “The People’s Ledger,” she proposed that the Federal Reserve take over consumer bank deposits, “effectively ‘end banking,’ as we know it,” and become “the ultimate public platform for generating, modulating, and allocating financial resources in a modern economy.” She’d also like the U.S. to create a central bank digital currency—as Venezuela and China are doing—to “redesign our financial system & turn Fed’s balance sheet into a true ‘People’s Ledger,’” she tweeted this summer.

How are we here?

[verb_to_trust]

You didn't graduate from Moscow State?

[Biff Pocoroba]

Gas has actually come down by a nickel here in the past week.

[McParadigm]

[4/5]

Now if only people would start taking jobs again. I admit I was wrong, I thought when the expanded unemployment benefits ran out on Labor Day that we'd see people streaming back into the labor market.

[B]

Now if only people would start taking jobs again. I admit I was wrong, I thought when the expanded unemployment benefits ran out on Labor Day that we'd see people streaming back into the labor market.

Well, shit. Didn't we all. No matter you're opinion of whether we should have offered those or not, who didn't think people with no other options would take back their shitty jobs.

Gig economy is going to be both the savior and the destroyer of all these people, I guess.

[4/5]

Now if only people would start taking jobs again. I admit I was wrong, I thought when the expanded unemployment benefits ran out on Labor Day that we'd see people streaming back into the labor market.

Well, shit. Didn't we all. No matter you're opinion of whether we should have offered those or not, who didn't think people with no other options would take back their shitty jobs.

Gig economy is going to be both the savior and the destroyer of all these people, I guess.

Maybe everybody is getting rich on crypto, selling sneakers, and selling themselves on onlyfans.

[McParadigm]

I’m not generally knowledgeable about economic measurement tools, beyond the ones used for ‘panic time clickbait’ headlines by news orgs. What’s the best metric to refer to, on the topic of people returning to work?

[4/5]

I’m not generally knowledgeable about economic measurement tools, beyond the ones used for ‘panic time clickbait’ headlines by news orgs. What’s the best metric to refer to, on the topic of people returning to work?

Good question.

Probably the best database for economic data is put out by the St. Louis Fed called FRED. There's so much info that it can be overwhelming but it's also a great place to nerd out and find economic data on virtually everything.

I don't know of a single measurement to answer your question, but some ones to consider would include the Labor Force Participation Rate, the employment rate, and all employees non-farm could each be useful.

Labor force participation rate measures the percentage of the working age population who are currently in the labor force, meaning that they are either employed or are actively seeking employment. This number was 63.3% in Feb '20 and is now 61.6% but has shown remarkably little movement since the immediate bounce back in June '20. Those numbers might not sound dramatic, but that's 1975 level participation. It could be that a lot of older people decided to retire early rather than re-enter the labor force, but either way this is definitely a number to watch. You can also explore these numbers based on age, sex, race, region, etc.

The employment rate is probably more useful than the unemployment rate for what you're asking so I included it here.

All employees is exactly what it sounds like. There were 152.5 million people employed Feb '20 and it's at 148.3 million now so that's still a sizeable gap from pre-pandemic. (Maybe for perspective, 148m was the employment number in 2018, so in some ways it's like our economy is three years behind right now.) If you click the link above you can see how far below trend this is.


BLS has a ton of data, it's not always as user friendly as FRED but a lot of the data FRED reports is BLS data in the first place, so here's another option you may prefer. And they have a measurement of Payroll Employment, which increased by 531,000 last month. That might actually be the best answer to your question. I went with numbers I knew at first, but playing around on BLS just now I found that, which might be helpful.

[McParadigm]

Thank you!

I will be bookmarking some of these links and referring to them in the future. I always prefer source data to headlines or analyses, where I can get it (though I try not to mistake data access for understanding, especially on a topic I’m not as experienced in [like this one])

[4/5]

Thank you!

I will be bookmarking some of these links and referring to them in the future. I always prefer source data to headlines or analyses, where I can get it (though I try not to mistake data access for understanding, especially on a topic I’m not as experienced in [like this one])

For sure. I actually presented at a workshop about a month ago showing teachers how to use FRED in the classroom so I can try to help if you have any questions.

[Bi_3]

Thank you!

I will be bookmarking some of these links and referring to them in the future. I always prefer source data to headlines or analyses, where I can get it (though I try not to mistake data access for understanding, especially on a topic I’m not as experienced in [like this one])

Bi_3 liked this post and wished he could be more like this sometimes

[tragabigzanda]

Congratulations everyone. We’ve created the most boring thread on the internet.

[4/5]

[Green Habit]

Congratulations everyone. We’ve created the most boring thread on the internet.

You should have seen this thread back in the heydey of thodoks and given2trade being the leaders of the discourse.

[4/5]

Congratulations everyone. We’ve created the most boring thread on the internet.

You should have seen this thread back in the heydey of thodoks and given2trade being the leaders of the discourse.

Nobody cares about inflation and shortages.

[macphisto]

Congratulations everyone. We’ve created the most boring thread on the internet.

You should have seen this thread back in the heydey of thodoks and given2trade being the leaders of the discourse.

Nobody cares about inflation and shortages.

I went to the grocery store on Wed. evening for some last minute odds n’ ends, and the spice aisle was fuuuuuuucked. Not only did I strike out on the pumpkin pie spice on my list, but at least half the dispensers were empty. Harbinger of worse times ahead I’m afraid.