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Post subject: Re: Does anyone care about the economy?
Posted: Tue August 25, 2020 3:06 pm
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Joined: Thu December 20, 2012 4:45 pm Posts: 4868
The Federal Reserve is making a massive policy shift today, replacing 'inflation targeting' with 'average inflation targeting.' Basically this signals that instead of shooting for 2% inflation (which has consistently been below target for a decade) they will now shoot for inflation above 2% for the foreseeable future to bring average inflation over the longer term up to 2%.
_________________ "I want to see the whole picture--as nearly as I can. I don't want to put on the blinders of 'good and bad,' and limit my vision."-- In Dubious Battle
Post subject: Re: Does anyone care about the economy?
Posted: Tue August 25, 2020 3:22 pm
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tragabigzanda wrote:
In English please
The Fed is promising more inflation, zero percent interest rates for a long, long time and that they won't raise them even when unemployment out output stabilize.
This is basically the inverse of what The Fed did under Paul Volker in 1980. In 1980 Volker announced the Fed's intention to bring inflation dramatically down, today the Fed is announcing the opposite. The reason is that many economists believe that if people/"the market" understand the Fed's intention AND BELIEVE THEM that it can make the adjustment much quicker than it would be otherwise. This worked very well for Volker, they rapidly brought inflation down. The hope here is the same but in the opposite direction.
Today is just talk. It's an extremely overt signal to everybody to expect inflation which should then lead to price and wage increases if people believe that there will in fact be inflation.
_________________ "I want to see the whole picture--as nearly as I can. I don't want to put on the blinders of 'good and bad,' and limit my vision."-- In Dubious Battle
Post subject: Re: Does anyone care about the economy?
Posted: Tue August 25, 2020 3:26 pm
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Strat wrote:
and when will my marcus goldman sachs savings account interest rate go back to 2% again
Nominally? It'll probably happen before too long if the Fed is successful. In real terms? A long, long, long time.
_________________ "I want to see the whole picture--as nearly as I can. I don't want to put on the blinders of 'good and bad,' and limit my vision."-- In Dubious Battle
Post subject: Re: Does anyone care about the economy?
Posted: Tue August 25, 2020 11:19 pm
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Joined: Thu December 20, 2012 4:45 pm Posts: 4868
The Fed is still paying interest on excess reserves, so I'm not sure if we should totally believe them yet.
_________________ "I want to see the whole picture--as nearly as I can. I don't want to put on the blinders of 'good and bad,' and limit my vision."-- In Dubious Battle
Post subject: Re: Does anyone care about the economy?
Posted: Tue October 06, 2020 11:50 pm
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Joined: Thu December 20, 2012 4:45 pm Posts: 4868
B wrote:
That graph is hysterically misleading. That end of times looking crash is a decrease of 1%.
(It did fall on the day closer to 1.5% but still.)
Love the all caps about it falling to a session low. *ZOOM WAY IN ON A GRAPH TO MAKE IT LOOK DRAMATIC!!
_________________ "I want to see the whole picture--as nearly as I can. I don't want to put on the blinders of 'good and bad,' and limit my vision."-- In Dubious Battle
Post subject: Re: Does anyone care about the economy?
Posted: Sat October 10, 2020 5:49 pm
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It's tough to comprehend how stupid a person would have to be to surprised that the stock market would react badly to an announcement that there will be no spending package.
_________________ "I want to see the whole picture--as nearly as I can. I don't want to put on the blinders of 'good and bad,' and limit my vision."-- In Dubious Battle
Post subject: Re: Does anyone care about the economy?
Posted: Sat October 10, 2020 6:40 pm
Mind Your Tanners
Joined: Wed April 20, 2016 7:11 pm Posts: 9019
4/5 wrote:
It's tough to comprehend how stupid a person would have to be to surprised that the stock market would react badly to an announcement that there will be no spending package.
Unless it has dawned on him that his tweets can predictably alter the stock market... which gives some in debt an interesting way out.
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