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 Post subject: Re: Does anyone care about the economy?
PostPosted: Tue November 26, 2013 7:46 pm 
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McParadigm wrote:
you are still here, and so made to figure

you are an important part of the computer

Everyone's dispensable. That's why I still update my education and skill set every year.

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 Post subject: Re: Does anyone care about the economy?
PostPosted: Tue November 26, 2013 7:51 pm 
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surfndestroy wrote:
McParadigm wrote:
Another problem with that article/book is that it makes gross assumptions about which and how many jobs computing technologies will eventually make obsolete, how soon or quickly they will do so, and how it will change the market landscape in general. Put another way: it bases its predictions about the future on today's reasonable understandings, which is a big mistake when talking about technology.

It's very likely that the next 30 years of digital discovery is going to make the last 30 years look like the stretch before the race, and I have to assume that things are going to get very, very weird as a result.[/quote]
I can only speak from my area of software but in the last ten years the advances made are pretty astonishing. We implemented software 18 months ago that automated much of the work of 4-5 well paid CPA's doing financial consolidation work. CPA level accounting was a career that was well paid and safe. It is going to be a dwindling field unless you find your niche, such as taxation consulting.
As the big platform software gets better, we're able to be more productive designing the reports and applications that drive the business. Automating processes that educated and smart people were previously doing.
I think Stip's ideal of full employment is a pipe dream. I just can't see it happening. Especially if any sort of care or concern is to be had for the environment. The earth has something like 3 billion working age people. My guess is that that many people at full employment would be disasterous for the world and environment.



I don't know that we need full employment the way we think about it today. I think we have an economy that is capable of meeting the essential needs and then some of most of the people living in it (bracket whether or not we can do this for the world). I'd like to see more people work fewer hours and rather than having the productivity bonuses benefit the few people who control an organization have them help maintain the standard of living for everyone while work is shared. Or, alternately, if we are creating an economy where there aren't enough jobs for everyone then to create much more robust social programs to compensate for this.

My core conviction is that the economy should serve the citizens who live within it, which ours is increasingly failing to do. Beyond that I'm open to anything.

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 Post subject: Re: Does anyone care about the economy?
PostPosted: Tue November 26, 2013 8:28 pm 
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That's why I still update my education and skill set every year.


It's probably good advice, but don't say it like it protects you.

People like Michael Osborne, and firms like Gartner, talk about jobs involving creativity or social intelligence like they will be safe from replacement. But ubiquitous intelligence and distance job competitiveness will make Luddites of us all, and credential inflation in the face of an increasingly hostile jobs market will keep chipping away at the perceived value of higher education and degree attainment. I'd argue that we're rapidly reaching a point where technological advancement is no longer about optimizing or expanding consumerism-based society, and is now moving towards a point where a re-imagining will be forced. Labor-for-wages can't possibly maintain, when the majority of labor is no longer human in design.

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 Post subject: Re: Does anyone care about the economy?
PostPosted: Tue November 26, 2013 8:36 pm 
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McParadigm wrote:
Quote:
That's why I still update my education and skill set every year.


It's probably good advice, but don't say it like it protects you.

People like Michael Osborne, and firms like Gartner, talk about jobs involving creativity or social intelligence like they will be safe from replacement. But ubiquitous intelligence and distance job competitiveness will make Luddites of us all, and credential inflation in the face of an increasingly hostile jobs market will keep chipping away at the perceived value of higher education and degree attainment. I'd argue that we're rapidly reaching a point where technological advancement is no longer about optimizing or expanding consumerism-based society, and is now moving towards a point where a re-imagining will be forced. Labor-for-wages can't possibly maintain, when the majority of labor is no longer human in design.

I'm just hoping to ride out the +/-15 years until I'm able to retire. The generation or two behind me, man the life boats. They're in for a hell of a ride.

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 Post subject: Re: Does anyone care about the economy?
PostPosted: Tue November 26, 2013 8:45 pm 
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surfndestroy wrote:
The generation or two behind me, man the life boats.


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 Post subject: Re: Does anyone care about the economy?
PostPosted: Wed December 04, 2013 6:11 pm 
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This is pretty interesting for anyone who still doubts where technology and the economy is going, from Oxford:

http://www.futuretech.ox.ac.uk/sites/futuretech.ox.ac.uk/files/The_Future_of_Employment_OMS_Working_Paper_1.pdf

Quote:
In health care, diagnostics tasks are already being computerised. Oncologists at Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center are, for example, using IBM’s Watson computer to provide chronic care and cancer treatment diagnostics. Knowledge from 600,000 medical evidence reports, 1.5 million patient records and clinical trials, and two million pages of text from medical journals, are used for benchmarking and pattern recognition purposes. This allows the computer to compare each patient’s individual symptoms, genetics, family and medication history, etc., to diagnose and develop a treatment plan with the highest probability of success (Cohn, 2013).

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 Post subject: Re: Does anyone care about the economy?
PostPosted: Wed December 04, 2013 6:54 pm 
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broken iris wrote:
This is pretty interesting for anyone who still doubts where technology and the economy is going, from Oxford:

http://www.futuretech.ox.ac.uk/sites/futuretech.ox.ac.uk/files/The_Future_of_Employment_OMS_Working_Paper_1.pdf

Quote:
In health care, diagnostics tasks are already being computerised. Oncologists at Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center are, for example, using IBM’s Watson computer to provide chronic care and cancer treatment diagnostics. Knowledge from 600,000 medical evidence reports, 1.5 million patient records and clinical trials, and two million pages of text from medical journals, are used for benchmarking and pattern recognition purposes. This allows the computer to compare each patient’s individual symptoms, genetics, family and medication history, etc., to diagnose and develop a treatment plan with the highest probability of success (Cohn, 2013).

Excellent article. Glad to see that my job has only a 0.0065% probability of being computerised. Safe for another week.

As for the health care blurb, big data at work. If you're good with numbers there is a huge boatload of money to be made in analyzing big data.

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 Post subject: Re: Does anyone care about the economy?
PostPosted: Wed December 04, 2013 8:30 pm 
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broken iris wrote:
This is pretty interesting for anyone who still doubts where technology and the economy is going, from Oxford:

http://www.futuretech.ox.ac.uk/sites/futuretech.ox.ac.uk/files/The_Future_of_Employment_OMS_Working_Paper_1.pdf

Quote:
In health care, diagnostics tasks are already being computerised. Oncologists at Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center are, for example, using IBM’s Watson computer to provide chronic care and cancer treatment diagnostics. Knowledge from 600,000 medical evidence reports, 1.5 million patient records and clinical trials, and two million pages of text from medical journals, are used for benchmarking and pattern recognition purposes. This allows the computer to compare each patient’s individual symptoms, genetics, family and medication history, etc., to diagnose and develop a treatment plan with the highest probability of success (Cohn, 2013).



Are we even close to 100% digitized yet though when it comes to medical records? Seems like that would be a prerequisite to this type of research.


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 Post subject: Re: Does anyone care about the economy?
PostPosted: Wed December 04, 2013 9:26 pm 
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Electromatic wrote:
broken iris wrote:
This is pretty interesting for anyone who still doubts where technology and the economy is going, from Oxford:

http://www.futuretech.ox.ac.uk/sites/futuretech.ox.ac.uk/files/The_Future_of_Employment_OMS_Working_Paper_1.pdf

Quote:
In health care, diagnostics tasks are already being computerised. Oncologists at Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center are, for example, using IBM’s Watson computer to provide chronic care and cancer treatment diagnostics. Knowledge from 600,000 medical evidence reports, 1.5 million patient records and clinical trials, and two million pages of text from medical journals, are used for benchmarking and pattern recognition purposes. This allows the computer to compare each patient’s individual symptoms, genetics, family and medication history, etc., to diagnose and develop a treatment plan with the highest probability of success (Cohn, 2013).



Are we even close to 100% digitized yet though when it comes to medical records? Seems like that would be a prerequisite to this type of research.


No idea. But the paper was about much more than that one case, for example:

Quote:
In addition, computerisation is entering the domains of legal and financial services. Sophisticated algorithms are gradually taking on a number of tasks performed by paralegals, contract and patent lawyers (Markoff, 2011). More specifically, law firms now rely on computers that can scan thousands of legal briefs and precedents to assist in pre-trial research. A frequently cited example is Symantec’s Clearwell system, which uses language analysis to identify general concepts in documents, can present the results graphically, and proved capable of analysing and sorting more than 570,000 documents in two days (Markoff, 2011).


It's long, but the first twenty-two pages or so are a fascinating insight into where employment and the economy is going. And:
Spoiler: show
It doesn't look good for people without engineering skills or high IQs or are not autodidacts




But to veer back to Stip's points, I honestly cannot foresee a future in which a significant portion of the population would (or could) have the skill set to share what jobs will be left. As for how the lowly 85% will respond to this, well I guess that depends on what they are willing to give up in order to derive benefit from what the technocrats are offering. The cynic in me thinks that sugary food, cheap booze, public schools and housing, playstations, smartphones, legalized weed, porn, cheap abortions, voting machines, and a check from the government every two weeks will keep most of us pacified.

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 Post subject: Re: Does anyone care about the economy?
PostPosted: Wed December 04, 2013 9:40 pm 
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broken iris wrote:
But to veer back to Stip's points, I honestly cannot foresee a future in which a significant portion of the population would (or could) have the skill set to share what jobs will be left. As for how the lowly 85% will respond to this, well I guess that depends on what they are willing to give up in order to derive benefit from what the technocrats are offering. The cynic in me thinks that sugary food, cheap booze, public schools and housing, playstations, smartphones, legalized weed, porn, cheap abortions, voting machines, and a check from the government every two weeks will keep most of us pacified.

It's been working so far.

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 Post subject: Re: Does anyone care about the economy?
PostPosted: Wed December 04, 2013 10:19 pm 
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surfndestroy wrote:
broken iris wrote:
But to veer back to Stip's points, I honestly cannot foresee a future in which a significant portion of the population would (or could) have the skill set to share what jobs will be left. As for how the lowly 85% will respond to this, well I guess that depends on what they are willing to give up in order to derive benefit from what the technocrats are offering. The cynic in me thinks that sugary food, cheap booze, public schools and housing, playstations, smartphones, legalized weed, porn, cheap abortions, voting machines, and a check from the government every two weeks will keep most of us pacified.

It's been working so far.

I'd be fine with that.

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 Post subject: Re: Does anyone care about the economy?
PostPosted: Wed December 04, 2013 11:48 pm 
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surfndestroy wrote:
If you're good with numbers there is a huge boatload of money to be made in analyzing big data.

i can confirm this


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 Post subject: Re: Does anyone care about the economy?
PostPosted: Thu December 05, 2013 4:18 pm 
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--- wrote:
surfndestroy wrote:
If you're good with numbers there is a huge boatload of money to be made in analyzing big data.

i can confirm this
What do you make of this, numbercruncher?

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 Post subject: Re: Does anyone care about the economy?
PostPosted: Fri December 06, 2013 1:57 pm 
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stip wrote:
McP and I have (and probably others but these were two recent cases) both argued somewhere that we're entering into a world where people just simply don't need to work anymore. Not as much. We have fewer things that require bodies to do them, and a much larger population.


But some still have to work to support the lives of the others, and in the case of the US presently, it's mostly knowledge workers who do tasks that cannot be done by those aren't currently doing them. We are dependent on them for food, shelter, and clothing.

stip wrote:
There is going to be a long period of adjustment when we start learning how to live with abundance. Eventually (and sooner than we might think, but not immediately) the population is going to sever the labor/wage connection since it will no longer make sense. At that point we'll figure out if the United States is going to be a police state enforcing a rigid feudal caste system, or a social democracy. But what it currently is will probably cease to exist.


We only have abundance in the context of recent history and our abundance is far from sustainable in the US and impossible to implement on a global scale, we don't have enough hydrocarbon energy or rare-earth metals for everyone to live people in the West do. Which brings us back to those that have the capacity to work in the future. What makes you think that they will while everyone else does not? A majority of voters telling them that they have to (which is no different than a gun to their head)?

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 Post subject: Re: Does anyone care about the economy?
PostPosted: Fri December 06, 2013 3:22 pm 
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broken iris wrote:
stip wrote:
McP and I have (and probably others but these were two recent cases) both argued somewhere that we're entering into a world where people just simply don't need to work anymore. Not as much. We have fewer things that require bodies to do them, and a much larger population.


But some still have to work to support the lives of the others, and in the case of the US presently, it's mostly knowledge workers who do tasks that cannot be done by those aren't currently doing them. We are dependent on them for food, shelter, and clothing.

stip wrote:
There is going to be a long period of adjustment when we start learning how to live with abundance. Eventually (and sooner than we might think, but not immediately) the population is going to sever the labor/wage connection since it will no longer make sense. At that point we'll figure out if the United States is going to be a police state enforcing a rigid feudal caste system, or a social democracy. But what it currently is will probably cease to exist.


We only have abundance in the context of recent history and our abundance is far from sustainable in the US and impossible to implement on a global scale, we don't have enough hydrocarbon energy or rare-earth metals for everyone to live people in the West do. Which brings us back to those that have the capacity to work in the future. What makes you think that they will while everyone else does not? A majority of voters telling them that they have to (which is no different than a gun to their head)?



The sustainability question is vital, and so is its feasibility on a global scale. But I'm sure most of us can pretty easily envision a level that lets people lead decent lives without the excess that categorizes what we do now.

And some people will no doubt still be paid more for what they do, especially if it is truly difficult work only a few are capable of. And more work will be shared out. If there are fewer jobs and we want people working then perhaps people will work fewer hours.

What this really comes down to, in large part, is how we want the benefits of productivity and technological development distributed. Do we want them belonging exclusively to the people who have legally positioned themselves to be able to control them, or do we want them spread throughout society?

Our historical answer has been the former, but we accepted that because we believed that someday we could be the person in that position, and that advancement was commensurate with hard work, that opportunity existed for everyone. As more and more people come to see this is as no longer true (bracketing how true it ever really was) we're likely to call more and more of this into question. And the commitment of younger people to capitalism and markets as a method of distribution is weaker than it has ever been, and it is hard to blame them for feeling that way

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 Post subject: Re: Does anyone care about the economy?
PostPosted: Sat December 07, 2013 7:54 pm 
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Bob Loblaw wrote:
--- wrote:
surfndestroy wrote:
If you're good with numbers there is a huge boatload of money to be made in analyzing big data.

i can confirm this
What do you make of this, numbercruncher?

as matters financial and monetary are not my bailiwick, i am reluctant to proffer much of an opinion


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 Post subject: Re: Does anyone care about the economy?
PostPosted: Sat December 07, 2013 7:55 pm 
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i am sorry to disappoint :(


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 Post subject: Re: Does anyone care about the economy?
PostPosted: Sun December 08, 2013 3:10 pm 
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Love this series so much. Follow the link to see how everything libs hate (technology, globalization, GMOs, markets, decentralization, commerce in general) makes the lives of all - and especially the lives of the world's poorest - better.

http://apps.npr.org/tshirt/#/title


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 Post subject: Re: Does anyone care about the economy?
PostPosted: Sun December 08, 2013 3:15 pm 
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http://www.jasoncollins.org/six-signs-y ... economics/

Quote:
Six signs you’re reading good criticism of economics

28 October 2013 by Jason Collins 17 Comments

After reading Chris Auld’s 18 signs you’re reading bad criticism of economics (I agree with most, although by viewing them as “signs” with exceptions), I was thinking about what signs someone should someone look for in a decent critique. So, here are my thoughts. Some are twists on Auld’s points, or could easily be turned into additional reasons that a criticism is likely bad, but they’re a useful initial filter.

1. The criticism is by an economist

There are a lot of exceptions to this rule in both directions (see Auld’s sign #18). Some of the best and most groundbreaking critiques of particular areas of economics have come from outside (just look at the list of Economics Nobel winners who aren’t economists). But as an initial sign, knowing whether the critic is an economist does a pretty good job, particularly for any screed that declares “here’s what wrong in economics”. There simply seems to be a base level of knowledge of economics required to give a decent critique. That knowledge is so rare outside of economics.

Take the common critique that all economists assume that people are self-interested rational automatons. There is a mountain of work in economics that relaxes this assumption, and most non-economists (and a few economists) have almost no awareness of it.

And sorry economists, this sign also works the other way. There have been some great economic analyses of other fields, but if you’re reading an economic critique of another academic field – “if only they were more statistically rigorous like us” – there’s a good chance it’s breaching the equivalent 18 signs for that field.

2. They know the difference between academic economists, economic consultants, business, bureaucrats and politicians

When a criticism of economics actually identifies work of an academic economist and then seeks to pull it apart, that’s normally a good sign. If they quote Alan Greenspan, Ron Paul, Ayn Rand, a random McKinsey consultant or Jamie Dimon before tearing apart the current state of economics, its unlikely they understand the current state of economics.

Of course, if the critic does follow this rule, there is a good chance that the critique is not actually of economics but rather of some hack’s use of economics for their particular means. “Our stadium will produce 20,000 jobs!” We don’t hold evolutionary biologists responsible for eugenics do we?

3. They distinguish “good for business” and “good economics”

What is good for (existing) business is not necessarily good economic policy. There aren’t many economists who are happy about how the major financial players in the GFC emerged relatively unscathed. And conversely, opposing certain types of banking regulation does not mean that an economist simply wants to protect the banks. What’s good for business and good economics may align, but sometimes it doesn’t.

When an economic critique can distinguish between the two, they tend to do a better job at addressing the underlying argument made by the economist. The assumption that the economist is a “corporate shill” is never a good start for a rational debate (even if they are a shill).

4. They criticise a particular, clearly defined area or use of economics

Economics is full of ideas and sub-fields that could do with a good beating. A critique that takes on a particular idea or field has a chance of hitting on the core issues. Believe that economists should be better macroeconomic forecasters? Take on the economists who research macroeconomic forecasting, point out what is wrong with their approach and suggest how it could be improved. Don’t expand a single issue to all of economics, unless you have a coherent reason as to why the failure of macroeconomic forecasters implies larger problems (as John Quiggin tries to do).

Similarly, there is a big difference between generally criticising economics for the use of rational actors in a model, and criticising an economist using rational actors in a particular model or context. Much of the time, a rational self-interested actor is a simple assumption that does a good job. However, there are some contexts where it is inappropriate and should be called as such.

5. They criticise a specific economist

This is a twist of sign 4. Of course, if that person happens to be Adam Smith, Friedrich Hayek or Milton Friedman, then this sign no longer applies. Chances are that they’ll go on to breach sign 4 by implying that economics is built purely on the back of the alleged problem child they have identified (and likely misinterpreted and possibly never even read).

6. They recognise that economics and values cannot be untangled, no matter who is doing the analysis

Economics draws heat as it deals with areas where people have strong opinions, regardless of whether they are an economist. And economists can be biased. We can push our favoured theories while ignoring evidence to the contrary, always supporting “our team”. But to claim that “if only evolutionary biologists or anthropologists or physicists were pulling the levers we’d hit on the rights answers” suggests a lack of self-awareness (which is unfortunately also lacking for many economists).

——–

If the above signs are present, it’s more likely to be a coherent critique that will draw an interesting response instead of turning into a higher-level flame war that these types of discussion usually trigger. And of course, there is the possibility that you’ll get a poor defence from the economist, but the signs of a poor defence will have to be the subject of another list (Unlearningecon has put together a list that could serve this purpose, of which I’d agree with around two-thirds if I read them sympathetically and as “signs”).

Having said the above, it pays to be humble. One day one of these screed writers might trigger the overthrow a dominant economic paradigm from outside, and people will laugh at what we today call economics. It’s worth looking past the signs that you are reading a bad criticism to see if there might be a charitable way of reading the argument and taking it on board.


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 Post subject: Re: Does anyone care about the economy?
PostPosted: Sun December 08, 2013 5:38 pm 
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Academic question for you, 'doks.

Quote:
Take the common critique that all economists assume that people are self-interested rational automatons. There is a mountain of work in economics that relaxes this assumption, and most non-economists (and a few economists) have almost no awareness of it.



Is this an assumption that has essentially vanished from the field of economics, or one that certain sub disciplines contest but still has a place in some (or a lot) of economic thinking?

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