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 Post subject: Re: Does anyone care about the economy?
PostPosted: Thu February 20, 2014 8:04 pm 
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 Post subject: Re: Does anyone care about the economy?
PostPosted: Sun May 04, 2014 4:40 pm 
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RIP Gary Becker.

His very last blog post was a good one--ending the stupid Cuba embargo.


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 Post subject: Re: Does anyone care about the economy?
PostPosted: Wed June 18, 2014 11:34 pm 
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Paul Krugman with an amazing article. I love pretty much every word of this.


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 Post subject: Re: Does anyone care about the economy?
PostPosted: Wed June 18, 2014 11:53 pm 
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At first I was like :search:

But then I saw it's from 1996.

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 Post subject: Re: Does anyone care about the economy?
PostPosted: Thu June 19, 2014 1:46 am 
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Bob Loblaw wrote:
At first I was like :search:

But then I saw it's from 1996.
Yeah, I knew that was going to be from 20th century Krugman.


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 Post subject: Re: Does anyone care about the economy?
PostPosted: Mon June 23, 2014 2:54 pm 
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--- wrote:
Paul Krugman with an amazing article. I love pretty much every word of this.

It's not like I was going to do anything else for the last half hour, thanks.

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 Post subject: Re: Does anyone care about the economy?
PostPosted: Fri July 11, 2014 4:08 pm 
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April 2013 letter from members of the Civil Rights Commission to the Congressional Black Caucus. More relevant today than when it was written:

Quote:
Hon. Marcia L. Fudge, Chair Congressional Black Caucus
2344 Rayburn House Office Building Washington, DC 20515

Dear Chairman Fudge:

We write in our individual capacities as three members of the eight-member U.S. Commission on Civil Rights, and not on behalf of the Commission as a whole. In light of recent debates on comprehensive immigration reform, we are writing to address a rarely-discussed effect of granting legal status or effective amnesty to illegal immigrants. Such grant of legal status will likely disproportionately harm lower-skilled African-Americans by making it more difficult for them to obtain employment and depressing their wages when they do obtain employment. The increased employment difficulties will likely have negative consequences that extend far beyond economics.
In 2008, the Commission held a briefing regarding the impact of illegal immigration on the wages and employment opportunities of African-Americans.1 The testimony at the briefing indicated that illegal immigration disproportionately impacts the wages and employment opportunities of African-American men.2

The briefing witnesses, well-regarded scholars from leading universities and independent groups, were ideologically diverse. All the witnesses acknowledged that illegal immigration has a negative impact on black employment, both in terms of employment opportunities and wages. The witnesses differed on the extent of that impact, but every witness agreed that illegal immigration has a discernible negative effect on black employment. For example, Professor Gordon Hanson’s research showed that “Immigration . . . accounts for about 40 percent of the 18 percentage point decline [from 1960-2000] in black employment rates.”3 Professor Vernon Briggs wrote that illegal immigrants and blacks (who are disproportionately likely to be low-skilled) often find themselves in competition for the same jobs, and the huge number of illegal immigrants ensures that there is a continual surplus of low-skilled labor, thus preventing wages from rising.4 Professor Gerald Jaynes’s research found that illegal immigrants had displaced U.S. citizens in industries that had traditionally employed large numbers of African-Americans, such as meatpacking.5

Illegal immigration has a disparate impact on African-American men because these men are disproportionately represented in the low-skilled labor force. The Census Bureau released a new report on educational attainment after the Commission issued its report. This report, released in February 2012, found that 50.9 percent of native-born blacks had not continued their education beyond high school.6 The same report found that 75.5 percent of foreign-born Hispanics had not been educated beyond high school, although it does not disaggregate foreign-born Hispanics who are legal immigrants from those who are illegal immigrants.7 However, Professor Briggs estimated that illegal immigrants or former illegal immigrants who received amnesty constitute a third to over a half of the total foreign-born population.8 Foreign-born Hispanics who are in the United States illegally are disproportionately male.9 African-Americans who have not pursued education beyond high school are also disproportionately male.10 These poor educational attainment levels usually relegate both African-American men and illegal immigrant men to the same low-skilled labor market, where they must compete against each other for work.11

The obvious question is whether there are sufficient jobs in the low-skilled labor market for both African-Americans and illegal immigrants. The answer is no. As Professor Briggs noted in his testimony to the Commission, “In February 2008 . . . the national unemployment rate was 4.8 percent, but the unemployment rate for adults (over 25 years old) without a high school diploma was 7.3 percent.”12 During 2007, “Black American adult workers without a high school diploma had an unemployment rate of 12.0 percent, and those with only a high school diploma had an unemployment rate of 7.3 percent.”13 These statistics suggest both that there is an overall surplus of workers in the low-skilled labor market, and that African-Americans are particularly disfavored by employers.14 More recently, Professor George Borjas of Harvard wrote:

Classifying workers by education level and age and comparing differences across groups over time shows that a 10 percent increase in the size of an education/age group due to the entry of immigrants (both legal and illegal) reduces the wage of native-born men in that group by 3.7 percent and the wage of all native-born workers by 2.5 percent. . . . The same type of education/age comparison used to measure the wage impact shows that a 10 percent increase in the size of a skill group reduced the fraction of native-born blacks in that group holding a job by 5.1 percentage points.15

Furthermore, these statistics reflect an economy that was not experiencing the persistent stagnation we are experiencing today. The country’s economic woes have disproportionately harmed African-Americans, especially those with little education. In 2011, 24.6 percent of African-Americans without a high school diploma were unemployed, as were 15.5 percent of African-Americans with only a high school diploma.16 Two and half years into the economic recovery, African-Americans face particular difficulty obtaining employment. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the seasonally adjusted January 2013 unemployment rate for all black Americans—not just those with few skills—was 13.8 percent, nearly twice the white unemployment rate of 7.0 percent.17 The economy has a glut of low-skilled workers, not a shortage.
Not only do illegal immigrants compete for jobs with African-Americans, but that competition drives down wages for the jobs that are available. Harvard professor George Borjas writes:

Illegal immigration reduces the wages of native workers by an estimated $99 to $118 billion a year . . . . A theory-based framework predicts that the immigrants who entered the country from 1990 to 2010 reduced the average annual earnings of American workers by $1,396 in the short run. Because immigration (legal and illegal) increased the supply of workers unevenly, the impact varies across skill groups, with high school dropouts being the most negatively affected group.18

Immigration, both legal and illegal, resulted in a disproportionately large increase in the number of high school dropouts in the labor pool. This caused a drop in wages among the poorest and least-educated members of the workforce.19 As discussed above, these people are disproportionately likely to be African-American men. Furthermore, there is evidence that wages for these men have not just failed to increase as much as they would have in the absence of illegal immigration. Their real wages, the number of dollars they take home at the end of the week, have actually diminished. Julie Hotchkiss, a research economist and policy advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, estimated that “as a result of this growth in the share of undocumented workers, the annual earnings of the average documented worker in Georgia in 2007 were 2.9 percent ($960) lower than they were in 2000. . . . [A]nnual earnings for the average documented worker in the leisure and hospitality sector in 2007 were 9.1 percent ($1,520) lower than they were in 2000.”20 A $960 annual decrease may not seem like much to a lawyer or a doctor. But as President Obama noted in regard to the 2012 payroll tax cut extension, an extra $80 a month makes a big difference to many families: “It means $40 extra in their paycheck, and that $40 helps to pay the rent, the groceries, the rising cost of gas . . . .”21
The consequences of illegal immigration for black men and the black community in general are not limited to wages. In another study, Borjas found that lower wages and fewer jobs also correlate with an increase in the black incarceration rate.

Our study suggests that a 10% immigrant-induced increase in the supply of a particular skill group is associated with a reduction in the black wage of 2.5%, a reduction in the black employment rate of 5.9 percentage points, and an increase in the black institutionalization rate of 1.3%. Among white men, the same 10% increase in supply reduces the wage by 3.2%, but has much weaker employment and incarceration effects: a 2.1 percentage-point reduction in the employment rate and a 0.2 percentage-point increase in the incarceration rate. It seems, therefore, that black employment and incarceration rates are more sensitive to immigration rates than those of whites.22

Both lower wages and incarceration likely contribute to one of the most serious problems facing the African-American community today: the dearth of intact nuclear families. The disintegration of the black family began to accelerate during the 1960s. It is one of the great tragedies of modern America that the disintegration of the African-American family has shown no signs of abating.23 Seventy-two percent of African-American children are born out of wedlock.24 It is now commonly recognized that children born out of wedlock are far more likely to experience a host of negative outcomes than are children raised by their own biological, married parents.25

Married men are more likely to be employed and to have higher earnings than unmarried men, although the relationship between marriage and economic success is complex. However, it is obvious that men who are unemployed or are incarcerated are far less appealing prospective spouses than men who hold down a steady job.26 Yet there are fewer and fewer jobs available—and at lower wages— for men in traditionally masculine industries.27 Giving amnesty to illegal immigrants would only exacerbate this problem facing low-skilled men, who are disproportionately African-American. The dearth of job opportunities gives these men less confidence in their ability to support a family, and gives women reason to fear that these prospective husbands will be only another mouth to feed.

Granting amnesty to illegal immigrants will only further harm African-American workers. Not only will the low-skilled labor market continue to experience a surplus of workers, making it difficult for African-Americans to find job opportunities, but African-Americans will be deprived of one of their few advantages in this market. Some states require private employers to use E-Verify to establish that their workers are in the country legally. This levels the playing field a bit for African-Americans. If illegal immigrants are granted legal status, this small advantage disappears.

Furthermore, recent history shows that granting amnesty to illegal immigrants will encourage more people to come to the United States illegally. The 1986 amnesty did not solve the illegal immigration problem. To the contrary, that amnesty established the precedent that if you come to America illegally, eventually you will obtain legal status. Thus, it is likely that if illegal immigrants are granted legal status, more people will come to America illegally and will further crowd African-American men (and other low-skilled men and women) out of the workforce.

Before the federal government decides to grant legal status to illegal immigrants, due deliberation should be given to what effect such grant will have on the employment and earnings prospects of low-skill Americans generally and black Americans specifically. We respectfully submit that granting such legal status is not without substantial costs to American workers.

Sincerely,
Abigail Thernstrom Vice Chair
Gail Heriot Commissioner
Peter Kirsanow Commissioner

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 Post subject: Re: Does anyone care about the economy?
PostPosted: Fri July 11, 2014 5:39 pm 
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I can see where that would be the case overall.

However...

...in South Dakota, the average household income has gone up quite a bit relative to the cost of living over the last 20 years, specifically because of the flood of immigrants. Some of those towns...Mitchell comes to mind, as does Yankton...look to be about 25-50% bigger than their "official" size when you visit them, and are overflowing with Latino families (and Mexican food). They go there for work in places like Trail King, which have swollen their workforce thanks to the abnormally reliable labor (the sub-college educated workforce in South Dakota is so unreliable, the populations so rapidly shrinking, and the businesses so in need of help, that when my stepson went to jail for a year his boss at Falcon Plastics told him "just let us know when you get out and we'll put you right back on the day shift"). As a result of this growth, they've had greater middle management, training dept, and human resource needs, and have been promoting those people who do have a long history with the organization.

You may have noticed South Dakota not particularly high on the poverty index on this image from the demographics thread:


Image


That would have been unheard of, as recently as the turn of the century.

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 Post subject: Re: Does anyone care about the economy?
PostPosted: Wed August 06, 2014 1:01 am 
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Image

*numbers are pre-Affordable Care Act.

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 Post subject: Re: Does anyone care about the economy?
PostPosted: Mon October 06, 2014 2:38 pm 
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Middle class Americans give more to charity as wealthy cut back

http://philanthropy.com/article/As-Weal ... re/149191/

The wealthiest Americans—those who earned $200,000 or more—reduced the share of income they gave to charity by 4.6 percent from 2006 to 2012. Meanwhile, Americans who earned less than $100,000 chipped in 4.5 percent more of their income during the same time period. Middle- and lower-income Americans increased the share of income they donated to charity, even as they earned less, on average, than they did six years earlier.

The 17 most generous states, as measured by share of income donated to charity, voted for Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney in the 2012 election. Florida, at 18, was the most generous state to vote for Barack Obama.

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 Post subject: Re: Does anyone care about the economy?
PostPosted: Mon October 06, 2014 3:16 pm 
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Not Matty. He gives more than most of us even make in a year.


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 Post subject: Re: Does anyone care about the economy?
PostPosted: Thu December 11, 2014 2:47 pm 
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This thread yearns for thodoks' return.

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 Post subject: Re: Does anyone care about the economy?
PostPosted: Thu December 11, 2014 3:05 pm 
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McParadigm wrote:
Middle class Americans give more to charity as wealthy cut back

http://philanthropy.com/article/As-Weal ... re/149191/

The wealthiest Americans—those who earned $200,000 or more—reduced the share of income they gave to charity by 4.6 percent from 2006 to 2012. Meanwhile, Americans who earned less than $100,000 chipped in 4.5 percent more of their income during the same time period. Middle- and lower-income Americans increased the share of income they donated to charity, even as they earned less, on average, than they did six years earlier.

The 17 most generous states, as measured by share of income donated to charity, voted for Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney in the 2012 election. Florida, at 18, was the most generous state to vote for Barack Obama.
I want to know if they're including religious tithes in that figure. Considering they named Utah by far the most generous, I'm going to say yes.


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 Post subject: Re: Does anyone care about the economy?
PostPosted: Fri December 12, 2014 8:33 am 
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Green Habit wrote:
McParadigm wrote:
Middle class Americans give more to charity as wealthy cut back

http://philanthropy.com/article/As-Weal ... re/149191/

The wealthiest Americans—those who earned $200,000 or more—reduced the share of income they gave to charity by 4.6 percent from 2006 to 2012. Meanwhile, Americans who earned less than $100,000 chipped in 4.5 percent more of their income during the same time period. Middle- and lower-income Americans increased the share of income they donated to charity, even as they earned less, on average, than they did six years earlier.

The 17 most generous states, as measured by share of income donated to charity, voted for Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney in the 2012 election. Florida, at 18, was the most generous state to vote for Barack Obama.
I want to know if they're including religious tithes in that figure. Considering they named Utah by far the most generous, I'm going to say yes.


I wouldn't discount religious giving entirely. Its possible that a higher percentage of tithes given to the LDS church go to actual charitable work than the American Red Cross. Sure, its unlikely, but the Red Cross does have unreasonably high overhead, and my understanding is that most administrating of the LDS church is on an unpaid basis.

My parents small church frequently is paying for people's motel rooms and things of that sort when they are transitioning between jobs. Oddly, some county social worker referred someone to them a few weeks ago. I have no idea what this costs compared to their overhead, but again, I imagine that social worker's total compensation packages is larger than most pastor's.

It would be interesting to see the breakdown of a typical church's giving for overhead/ salaries, local charitable giving, and missionary/overseas giving compares to the US budget regarding welfare spending, local state and federal payroll, and foreign aid. I don't imagine they'd line up all that closely.


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 Post subject: Re: Does anyone care about the economy?
PostPosted: Fri December 12, 2014 3:42 pm 
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simple schoolboy wrote:
I imagine that social worker's total compensation packages is larger than most pastor's.


According to glassdoor, the average compensation for both is near-equal.

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 Post subject: Re: Does anyone care about the economy?
PostPosted: Fri December 12, 2014 3:47 pm 
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simple schoolboy wrote:
Green Habit wrote:
McParadigm wrote:
Middle class Americans give more to charity as wealthy cut back

http://philanthropy.com/article/As-Weal ... re/149191/

The wealthiest Americans—those who earned $200,000 or more—reduced the share of income they gave to charity by 4.6 percent from 2006 to 2012. Meanwhile, Americans who earned less than $100,000 chipped in 4.5 percent more of their income during the same time period. Middle- and lower-income Americans increased the share of income they donated to charity, even as they earned less, on average, than they did six years earlier.

The 17 most generous states, as measured by share of income donated to charity, voted for Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney in the 2012 election. Florida, at 18, was the most generous state to vote for Barack Obama.
I want to know if they're including religious tithes in that figure. Considering they named Utah by far the most generous, I'm going to say yes.
I wouldn't discount religious giving entirely. Its possible that a higher percentage of tithes given to the LDS church go to actual charitable work than the American Red Cross. Sure, its unlikely, but the Red Cross does have unreasonably high overhead, and my understanding is that most administrating of the LDS church is on an unpaid basis.

My parents small church frequently is paying for people's motel rooms and things of that sort when they are transitioning between jobs. Oddly, some county social worker referred someone to them a few weeks ago. I have no idea what this costs compared to their overhead, but again, I imagine that social worker's total compensation packages is larger than most pastor's.

It would be interesting to see the breakdown of a typical church's giving for overhead/ salaries, local charitable giving, and missionary/overseas giving compares to the US budget regarding welfare spending, local state and federal payroll, and foreign aid. I don't imagine they'd line up all that closely.
I don't have any inherent problem with tithing. I just think it's different, and I'd like to see how the results break down when separated.


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 Post subject: Re: Does anyone care about the economy?
PostPosted: Thu February 05, 2015 4:16 pm 
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What's going on with the Canadian dollar? It wasn't that long ago that it was about the same as the US dollar but it's worth under 80 cents US now. Is it all because of oil has dropped so much?


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 Post subject: Re: Does anyone care about the economy?
PostPosted: Thu February 05, 2015 4:21 pm 
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oil and rate cuts with more to come


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 Post subject: Re: Does anyone care about the economy?
PostPosted: Thu February 05, 2015 4:23 pm 
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doug rr wrote:
oil and rate cuts with more to come

should we be worried about dev?

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 Post subject: Re: Does anyone care about the economy?
PostPosted: Thu February 05, 2015 4:32 pm 
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Alex wrote:
doug rr wrote:
oil and rate cuts with more to come

should we be worried about dev?


he can kiss his modship goodbye...we cant have the worst performing primary currency tied to the worst performing primary poster


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