There was no peace on 10/6. If there was, and Gaza was stable, the world would already have believed they were “deserving” of their own state, no? To me it’s been a 15 year period of bad conditions simply getting worse over time. There was always going to be a giant flashpoint eventually. I think the fact that Jews have, broadly speaking, been real victims in this world, time and time again, and have faced hostilities in their home, have led to unhealthy amounts of sympathy bias. That victims of a holocaust can be the aggressors only a couple generations later creates a tricky issue, given that the experience among people alive varies so much. I don’t know why, but it’s always seemed to me that Israel’s past suffering always trumps the present Palestinian suffering. We have at least 30k dead, mostly innocents. The place is destroyed. The people with the actual power bomb us away from peace every day.

There's no use arguing with bi3 about this. He basically views the Palestinians as rats.

Because Israel seems sooo upset right now about having to kill Palestinian children...

This is not an argument for peace, it is an argument for contemporary social justice, and those are not the same thing:

"Peace is defined as a social relationship where physical violence as a tool to achieve political objectives is absent among collectivities. Justice is defined as a state of affairs where actors obtain what they are entitled to."

But there's an interesting question in there: Would you view 07.Oct differently if Gaza was it's own globally recognized nation?


And as for pre-07.Oct, these look like peace to me:









I view them as victims of a broader power struggle in the region, but just because they are victims doesn't grant them the right to act without consequence. And I won't create some fantasy world were I project western value systems onto them in order to delude myself that all the violence can be excused as "resistance" and is not the result of generation after generation being manipulated and oppressed by the rest of the Arab world. There is a saying in the middle east "No Voice Stronger Than the Voice of the Intifada", meaning that there can be no criticism of Arab nations until Israel is destroyed. Ask yourself, who does that approach really help? (Hint: It's not the Palestinians)

BI, do you not see the violence against Palestinians that is their life, every day? Has israel been a non-violent occupier all these years? No back and forth skirmishes from time to time, with 15-20 Palestinians dying for every Israeli? Did these violent sentiments nurture themselves into existence, or is this the natural reaction that we see all over history? Blaming the people with no freedom or power for how they react to having no freedom or power seems wrong, given they live in horrendous conditions. People often say, in defense of Israeli action - “what if they did that to your country?” Ok, sure. But, what would Americans do if forced to live that way? What would any place look like after 75 years of deteriorating conditions? You’re asking victims to behave as you march in and wreck the place. Hamas is not 2 million Palestinians and they are not as popular there as people make them out to be. They are going after Hamas in ways that that clearly aren’t designed to differentiate between them and the general population.

And at this point, even America is calling for a ceasefire despite Hamas not having been “wiped out,” as if that was possible via airstrikes.

I mostly stay out of this issue because it's so complex and morally fraught but I don't think this is at all fair to the people of Gaza. If you replace "Gazans" with "Hamas" it's reasonable, but a very large portion of the population wasn't even alive when Hamas came to power and there's all sorts of reasons to hesitate when ascribing responsibility and agency to Gazans regarding the actions of Hamas. Even if they voted for Hamas a decade and a half ago or "support" Hamas today.



Similarly, I don't think this is fair either. Netanyahu, sure. But from what I've read and heard from Israeli citizens it seems there was obviously a demand for a strong military response to the attacks but also huge amounts of trepidation and conflict over the loss of innocent lives and an awareness and discomfort of what they're doing to the Palestinians. But at least so far many of them think they don't have an alternative as much as they dislike this one.

That's not to absolve them of responsibility, but I do think it's possible and even likely that many Israelis are simultaneously deeply uncomfortable with what they're doing but they view this as an existential crisis and so they have no other option if they want to exist as a nation. As opposed to viewing this as a genocide and taking joy in the deaths of innocents, etc.

https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/how-gaza-health-ministry-fakes-casualty-numbers?fbclid=IwAR2DKZReKMjO9EfU6c7NT2zTrDdQjVlIK0QznSvnHWN-ldNFZ_eS0ko-NhA

This was an interesting article.

That Chuck Schumer speech

Holy fuck. If they’ve lost him

To clarify a bit, I do not and have never claimed Israel as the heroes of the story. They have engaged in behavior that no other modern democracy would ever attempt and exploited their relationships with the US and EU to cover for it. That does not mean their actions are wrong in this specific case. I want to comment though on the bolded part above. I hope you didnt mean it this way, but that is a very dangerous way to think about any situation. It excuses mass murder, horrific torture and sexual violence, kidnapping, parading bodies through the streets, and terrorism like we saw on 07.Oct. It implies victims should just lay there and maybe try to enjoy the violations. It implies that the Israelis deserved it. That is never ok, no matter how big a power imbalance between groups. And remember, it was not just Hamas soldiers doing this. It was everyday Gazans flooding through the gates to enact the very violence they have been brainwashed into demanding for generations now. Israel is not the only nation oppressing the Palestinians. So maybe look not at the Gazan perspective and see the world Israel exists in:



That's over a billion people that will attack them the instant they show weakness, so what should Israel do? Well, they made peace with Egypt. They made peace with Jordan (>80% ethnic Palestinian BTW). They were made peace with UAE. They made peace with Bahrain. They were about to make peace with the Saudis and the real oppressors decided that was unacceptable and acted to create this horrible situation.

On a side note, Hamas is actually pretty popular in Palestine and reason there are not new elections is that they would win: https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas ... 3844bc4514

US politicians do not have moral epiphanies. This is to try and regain the TikTok crowd and boost Biden's poor numbers in the crucial swing state of Minnesota.

Trump should consider converting to Islam*.

*Shia of course, for the temporary marriages

I fully agreed that the political calculus here is transparent and obvious. This stuff is mostly remarkable for what it reveals about how the deep tissue polling has changed, re:Israel support.

American attitudes about Israel have changed so much during this military operation that, in an election year where independent voters are an essential “get,” Democrats increasingly see more benefit than cost to expressed opposition in their behind-the-scenes polling.

Israel’s overall favorability in the US is down to 55% in recent Gallup polling, a two decade low. But favorability is a broad topic. It’s perfectly possible to view Israel favorably, but also disapprove of (or be uncomfortable with) its current actions. Conversely, I would wager that none of the people who view Israel unfavorably support the war. So the absolute ceiling at this point for full fledged military action support is probably close to 45%.

Chuck Schumer is a man powered entirely by cynical ambition, which is why he was careful to make Netanyahu the target of his dramatic attention-getter and not the state of Israel. But the fact that the game players are beginning to see joining the Actually Angry as more poll-friendly than not means bad things for Israel’s ongoing backstage support.

We’re over 31,000 dead people killed by Israel now

And you’re talking about polling

The entire world is watching. (And not allowed do anything)

Don’t think you can trust the numbers coming out. Not saying that makes what is happening in Gaza any less sad. It’s a tragedy no matter what.

Consequences
For us all. Just watch

Palestinian polling changes based on the framing of the question, and a spike in support of them as the Israeli military really begins bombing seems not surprising. And Hamas isn’t only a militant terrorist group. When you say Hamas would win, who are they competing against? They need to be allowed to sort themselves out. I’ve heard enough opinions that suggest what we all kind of know - it’s complicated. There seems to be a general sentiment all across the Middle East among the younger crowd that political violence needs to end. Hamas’ tactics don’t seem all that popular, and if it’s higher than it should be, there’s plenty of history to explain it. Which gets to that other point - my “people with no power” comment wasn’t scary thinking, to me it’s a glaring detail that people must not be taking into account. No one deserves to die, and in this situation the people with no power are dying in record numbers these days. Do they deserve this for what happened on 10/7? The thinking obviously goes both ways , and I would suggest a bit of “Palestinians deserve it” has been present for a long, long time.

Your argument about all those other countries isn’t really something I find relevant. Those are governments who act according to their will. Gaza is no such thing, and Israel is, by all means, been the occupying force. I don’t think you need to complicate it further. We still have the same 3 basic options here - give Palestinians their state, let Israel rule over them completely, go back to the status quo. The first option would require an interim period but otherwise, I’m not sure what other outcomes are possible. I feel like anyone thinking Hamas will give up in any way has not been watching the Middle East these last 20 years, and I know you have, BI. It was explained to us a ton how they built their network to essentially be shielded by the public. A military incursion would bring severe civilian casualties. We all knew this. So if the mission is to destroy Hamas or bludgeon it until it surrenders, logic follows that you’ve considered the toll on the public and gone ahead. Again, a decision that would seem to make it less likely that militants who are ready to die for the cause would do so, given that they’re watching the world turn against Israel.

Also, BI - the first couple sentences in your reply acknowledge Israel engaging in exploitative behavior that no other modern democracy would attempt. And then “but here, they are right.” I don’t understand this way of thinking, as if this is a separate event. I don’t see it that way. It’s ongoing. I hate that we have to put a disclaimer on a post to say “no one deserves a 10/7” because only the worst among us feel otherwise, but I do think we need to consider Israel’s very big role in the decay of Gaza and the general consequences that resulted.

Rob, I appreciate that back and forth here and it's clear you have thought this through and I have respect for the empathy you have for their cause. No bullshit, I really do. BUT I do not see this conversation going in a healthy direction and I'd like to just pause it for a bit and hopefully this conflict will be over soon and we can pick this up then.

Just different vantage points, and I respect views from both sides (most, anyway), but ok. Not much else to say anyway.