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Post subject: Re: Extreme Makeover: Post-Globalization Edition
Posted: Thu February 09, 2023 1:15 pm
Production Police
Joined: Tue September 24, 2013 5:56 pm Posts: 47174 Location: In the oatmeal aisle wearing a Shellac shirt
simple schoolboy wrote:
tragabigzanda wrote:
Ah. Yeah, I hadn’t seen those recent claims but in the book he discusses the inherent difficulties in piping oil/NG through thousands of miles of sub-zero temps.
Yeah, he seems to claim too much niche knowledge in too many domains. And then he turns around and gives paid speeches at obscure state schools. He's somewhere on the under appreciated polymath to talking out of his ass spectrum is all I can figure.
That his outlook generally flatters his audience might indicate which way his bias operates.
Yeah I’ve definitely thought about this. Yet at the same time, he uses a small mountain of maps, graphs, and other data to support his conclusions. Assuming his editors did their job, I’d really have to squint to not see a lot of things turning out the way he suggests.
Post subject: Re: Extreme Makeover: Post-Globalization Edition
Posted: Thu February 09, 2023 4:48 pm
The Master
Joined: Wed January 02, 2013 4:18 am Posts: 28187
simple schoolboy wrote:
He's made some pretty recent claims about Russian Nat Gas/ Oil well heads/pipes freezing up due to condensate. Might be specific enough to be falsifiable.
Post subject: Re: Extreme Makeover: Post-Globalization Edition
Posted: Thu February 09, 2023 7:53 pm
Misplaced My Sponge
Joined: Wed January 02, 2013 3:41 am Posts: 5599
spike wrote:
simple schoolboy wrote:
He's made some pretty recent claims about Russian Nat Gas/ Oil well heads/pipes freezing up due to condensate. Might be specific enough to be falsifiable.
I was like Bama students ain’t that smart!
Not to cast shade at state schools. His whole talk is about how (insert your state name*) is uniquely positioned to thrive in the coming economic upheaval while the europoors freeze in their hovels and the Chicoms cease to exist as a nation.
*I would be surprised if he hasn't done this at least once in every state outside of the Northeast.
Post subject: Re: Extreme Makeover: Post-Globalization Edition
Posted: Tue February 14, 2023 7:39 pm
Production Police
Joined: Tue September 24, 2013 5:56 pm Posts: 47174 Location: In the oatmeal aisle wearing a Shellac shirt
Politico: Taiwan’s Tech King to Nancy Pelosi: U.S. Is in Over Its Head “Fifty billion dollars – well, that’s a good start,” quipped the 91-year-old Morris Chang, warning that Washington’s new bipartisan industrial policy may not add up. https://www.politico.com/news/2023/02/1 ... y-00082646
Zeihan makes it clear that China will see a significant decline in their capacity to finish microchip production, so this all makes sense.
Post subject: Re: Extreme Makeover: Post-Globalization Edition
Posted: Mon February 20, 2023 6:47 am
Misplaced My Sponge
Joined: Wed January 02, 2013 3:41 am Posts: 5599
tragabigzanda wrote:
Politico: Taiwan’s Tech King to Nancy Pelosi: U.S. Is in Over Its Head “Fifty billion dollars – well, that’s a good start,” quipped the 91-year-old Morris Chang, warning that Washington’s new bipartisan industrial policy may not add up. https://www.politico.com/news/2023/02/1 ... y-00082646
Zeihan makes it clear that China will see a significant decline in their capacity to finish microchip production, so this all makes sense.
It's still not clear that Taiwan has the will to stay independent. Enough of their population might just want to be Chinese.
If not a full on invasion, China could pull off a blockade ala cuban missile crisis and we would have limited recourses. If they capture those fabs intact and there's nothing stood up in the US that can make equivalent chips how could we compel the Dutch to go along with us?
Post subject: Re: Extreme Makeover: Post-Globalization Edition
Posted: Tue February 21, 2023 2:05 am
Production Police
Joined: Tue September 24, 2013 5:56 pm Posts: 47174 Location: In the oatmeal aisle wearing a Shellac shirt
simple schoolboy wrote:
tragabigzanda wrote:
Politico: Taiwan’s Tech King to Nancy Pelosi: U.S. Is in Over Its Head “Fifty billion dollars – well, that’s a good start,” quipped the 91-year-old Morris Chang, warning that Washington’s new bipartisan industrial policy may not add up. https://www.politico.com/news/2023/02/1 ... y-00082646
Zeihan makes it clear that China will see a significant decline in their capacity to finish microchip production, so this all makes sense.
It's still not clear that Taiwan has the will to stay independent. Enough of their population might just want to be Chinese.
If not a full on invasion, China could pull off a blockade ala cuban missile crisis and we would have limited recourses. If they capture those fabs intact and there's nothing stood up in the US that can make equivalent chips how could we compel the Dutch to go along with us?
Update on this:
Quote:
Rattled by China, U.S. and allies are beefing up defenses in the Pacific But ‘everything needs to go faster,’ says Indo-Pacific command’s top admiral
Zeihan suggests that a Dutch/UK economic partnership makes a lot of sense for both parties, and that a UK/North America partnership makes a lot of sense too… UK is completely screwed on their own, but could leverage their military forces for safeguarding trade, and their tech workforce to stay in the game where they can.
As for your Q: re: US chip manufacturing, he’d say that the future is:
1. America continues to buy what it wants in the open marketplace because it can
2. Upstream manufacturing gets done in Mexico, and some in Colombia (with lots of raw inputs from Brazil), as downstream chip manufacturing gets relocated to US and Canada. And I don’t think it’s crazy at all: the entire stretch of Colorado > Montana is starting to see new chip production, and there are well established producers in the Boston area too. But the real opportunity is in TX, where the Dallas - Houston - Austin triangle provides soup-to-nuts production opps for half-finished products that will cross the border.
The shift won’t happen over night. Taiwan will continue to lead in high-value production of chips, Korean robotics tech, and high quality monitors WITH the requisite trade support. The US can buy Taiwan’s loyalty with energy inputs, then protect their cargo from point A to point Z.
Post subject: Re: Extreme Makeover: Post-Globalization Edition
Posted: Tue February 21, 2023 5:37 am
Misplaced My Sponge
Joined: Wed January 02, 2013 3:41 am Posts: 5599
tragabigzanda wrote:
simple schoolboy wrote:
tragabigzanda wrote:
Politico: Taiwan’s Tech King to Nancy Pelosi: U.S. Is in Over Its Head “Fifty billion dollars – well, that’s a good start,” quipped the 91-year-old Morris Chang, warning that Washington’s new bipartisan industrial policy may not add up. https://www.politico.com/news/2023/02/1 ... y-00082646
Zeihan makes it clear that China will see a significant decline in their capacity to finish microchip production, so this all makes sense.
It's still not clear that Taiwan has the will to stay independent. Enough of their population might just want to be Chinese.
If not a full on invasion, China could pull off a blockade ala cuban missile crisis and we would have limited recourses. If they capture those fabs intact and there's nothing stood up in the US that can make equivalent chips how could we compel the Dutch to go along with us?
Update on this:
Quote:
Rattled by China, U.S. and allies are beefing up defenses in the Pacific But ‘everything needs to go faster,’ says Indo-Pacific command’s top admiral
Zeihan suggests that a Dutch/UK economic partnership makes a lot of sense for both parties, and that a UK/North America partnership makes a lot of sense too… UK is completely screwed on their own, but could leverage their military forces for safeguarding trade, and their tech workforce to stay in the game where they can.
As for your Q: re: US chip manufacturing, he’d say that the future is:
1. America continues to buy what it wants in the open marketplace because it can
2. Upstream manufacturing gets done in Mexico, and some in Colombia (with lots of raw inputs from Brazil), as downstream chip manufacturing gets relocated to US and Canada. And I don’t think it’s crazy at all: the entire stretch of Colorado > Montana is starting to see new chip production, and there are well established producers in the Boston area too. But the real opportunity is in TX, where the Dallas - Houston - Austin triangle provides soup-to-nuts production opps for half-finished products that will cross the border.
The shift won’t happen over night. Taiwan will continue to lead in high-value production of chips, Korean robotics tech, and high quality monitors WITH the requisite trade support. The US can buy Taiwan’s loyalty with energy inputs, then protect their cargo from point A to point Z.
I eagerly await him unpacking the Colorado Montana vs Boston vs Dallas Houston Austin triangle.
Yeah, dunno, kind of over it until any of his various predictions come true-ish. Wonder what his take is on the ANC signing a new deal with their sponsor I mean the CCP.
Post subject: Re: Extreme Makeover: Post-Globalization Edition
Posted: Tue February 21, 2023 11:50 am
Production Police
Joined: Tue September 24, 2013 5:56 pm Posts: 47174 Location: In the oatmeal aisle wearing a Shellac shirt
simple schoolboy wrote:
tragabigzanda wrote:
simple schoolboy wrote:
tragabigzanda wrote:
Politico: Taiwan’s Tech King to Nancy Pelosi: U.S. Is in Over Its Head “Fifty billion dollars – well, that’s a good start,” quipped the 91-year-old Morris Chang, warning that Washington’s new bipartisan industrial policy may not add up. https://www.politico.com/news/2023/02/1 ... y-00082646
Zeihan makes it clear that China will see a significant decline in their capacity to finish microchip production, so this all makes sense.
It's still not clear that Taiwan has the will to stay independent. Enough of their population might just want to be Chinese.
If not a full on invasion, China could pull off a blockade ala cuban missile crisis and we would have limited recourses. If they capture those fabs intact and there's nothing stood up in the US that can make equivalent chips how could we compel the Dutch to go along with us?
Update on this:
Quote:
Rattled by China, U.S. and allies are beefing up defenses in the Pacific But ‘everything needs to go faster,’ says Indo-Pacific command’s top admiral
Zeihan suggests that a Dutch/UK economic partnership makes a lot of sense for both parties, and that a UK/North America partnership makes a lot of sense too… UK is completely screwed on their own, but could leverage their military forces for safeguarding trade, and their tech workforce to stay in the game where they can.
As for your Q: re: US chip manufacturing, he’d say that the future is:
1. America continues to buy what it wants in the open marketplace because it can
2. Upstream manufacturing gets done in Mexico, and some in Colombia (with lots of raw inputs from Brazil), as downstream chip manufacturing gets relocated to US and Canada. And I don’t think it’s crazy at all: the entire stretch of Colorado > Montana is starting to see new chip production, and there are well established producers in the Boston area too. But the real opportunity is in TX, where the Dallas - Houston - Austin triangle provides soup-to-nuts production opps for half-finished products that will cross the border.
The shift won’t happen over night. Taiwan will continue to lead in high-value production of chips, Korean robotics tech, and high quality monitors WITH the requisite trade support. The US can buy Taiwan’s loyalty with energy inputs, then protect their cargo from point A to point Z.
I eagerly await him unpacking the Colorado Montana vs Boston vs Dallas Houston Austin triangle.
Pretty simple: rail and highway access are a key determinant of any locality’s ability to produce and sell.
Post subject: Re: Extreme Makeover: Post-Globalization Edition
Posted: Mon May 01, 2023 2:47 pm
Production Police
Joined: Tue September 24, 2013 5:56 pm Posts: 47174 Location: In the oatmeal aisle wearing a Shellac shirt
Zeihan 101:
On frontier of new ‘gold rush,’ quest for coveted EV metals yields misery Soaring demand for electric vehicles is fueling dramatic changes in Guinea, home to the world’s largest bauxite reserves https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/in ... _p001_f005
TLDR:
Quote:
And over the current decade, when experts expect global sales of EVs to increase almost ninefold, demand for aluminum will jump nearly 40 percent, to 119 million tons annually, industry analysts say.
Guinea is already seeing an unprecedented boom in its bauxite exports, which increased almost fivefold from 2015 to 2020 [...] But across Boké, thousands of villagers are paying a steep price, according to dozens of interviews with residents of six villages in the region, nonprofit monitoring groups and industry experts. The Guinean government has reported that hundreds of square miles once used for farming have been acquired by mining companies for their operations and associated roads, railways and ports. Villagers have received little or no compensation, rights activists and locals say. [...] Without a full accounting, the green-energy transition risks repeating the cruel history of previous industrial revolutions.
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