Election 2020

[Simple Torture]

Can we open up the Election 2020 thread? The first non-Trump candidate is officially in the running:

Rep. John Delaney of Maryland to run for president

Rep. John Delaney of Maryland says he's running for president, instead of governor or reelection, in 2018.

Delaney, a Democrat, announced his plans in a statement Friday.

The politically moderate banking entrepreneur is in his third term in Maryland's 6th Congressional District, which includes western Maryland and a large section of Montgomery County, the state's largest county.

The 54-year-old is worth roughly $90 million and is one of the House's wealthiest members. He spent about $2 million to help finance his first House race in 2012.

His consideration of a possible Maryland gubernatorial bid months ago quickly drew interest in his House seat. Several candidates already have expressed interest in running for the seat.

http://www.latimes.com/politics/washing ... story.html

[The Argonaut]

but that guy is a loser

[Bi_3]

but that guy is a loser

That's one of my reps, yo.

[BurtReynolds]

with this look?



not a chance

[bune]

I feel like a pithy Arrested Development narrator quote would work well in this situation.

Narrator: Jessie had gone too far, and she had best watch her mouth

[tragabigzanda]

He looks like the foul mouthed congressman from Veep.

[Green Habit]

You gotta think that this is going to be the first election since 1980 that a sitting President gets challenged for his own party's nomination. Evan McMullin seems like the natural early favorite to do so.

[Norris]

When was the last time a sitting President lost in a primary election?

[Strat]

When was the last time a sitting President lost in a primary election?

When was the last time, if ever, that a sitting president was not nominated by his party for a second term?
It only happened once to an elected president. That was Franklin Pierce, the 14th president, who was elected as a Democrat in 1852. His pro-Southern sentiments and his policy of failing to lead on the divisive issue of slavery badly hurt his standing with the voters. Especially damaging was his support for the pro-slavery Kansas-Nebraska Act of 1854, which backfired on him as Kansas was overrun by pro-slavery forces, mostly from the slave state of Missouri. The events angered Northerners everywhere and helped lead to the creation of the Republican Party. When Democratic delegates gathered in Cincinnati for their convention in 1856, it was clear that they had had enough of Pierce. James Buchanan, who had been defeated by Pierce for the nomination four years earlier, won the nomination on the 17th ballot.

[Simple Torture]

I just drove by Pierce's homestead on Saturday and laughed at how awful he was.

[Anders]

Someone wrote this on reddit:

"In 1844, John Tyler, a Southern conservative who succeeded W. H. Harrison, was expelled from the Whig Party rather unceremoniously, which nominated founder Henry Clay unanimously.

In 1848, James Polk declined to seek re-election to a second term in accordance with his campaign promise of not seeking re-election to a second term.

In 1852, Millard Fillmore sought election to a full term after the death of Zachary Taylor. Fillmore supported Henry Clay's Compromise of 1850, which divided their fellow Whigs. After Democrats nominated northern Franklin Pierce, some "Free Soil" Whigs believed the way to victory was to nominate an anti-slavery candidate, and so of course, supported General Winfield Scott, who was neither northern nor anti-slavery, and reacted to their advances a bit like that girl I asked to prom junior year.

In 1856, Pierce's policy of failing to lead on slavery badly hurt his national standing. Especially damaging was his support for the Kansas-Nebraska Act, which backfired on him as Kansas was overrun by pro-slavery forces from the slave state of Missouri. The events angered Northerners everywhere and helped lead to the creation of the Republican Party.

Pierce lost re-nomination to James Buchanan, the runner up for the 1852 nomination, after losing 75 House seats in the '54 midterms. It's worth noting that Buchanan was essentially as much of a failure as Pierce, but had the added bonus of paving the way for secession. Franklin Pierce remains the only elected President to lose nomination for a second term.

In 1868, Andrew Johnson was impeached and nearly convicted, which was quite an embarrassing experience for everyone involved. Democrats nominated Horatio Seymour instead.

In 1884, Chester Arthur lost favor among Republicans for pursuing reforms to the patronage system. Arthur, who was seen as corrupt, had been Vice President under James Garfield as a compromise candidate to curry favor with party bosses.

Arthur lost nomination to James Blaine, much to the dismay of Republican reformists known as "mugwumps," who vowed to support the Democratic candidate based on his integrity – it would up being Grover Cleveland, considered a man of great political integrity.

In 1920, Woodrow Wilson hoped to be re-nominated despite his having had a stroke, but was never asked and did not receive a single vote at the convention. How sad.

In 1940, Franklin Roosevelt intended to honor the "two-term" tradition and retire to a career as a columnist for Collier's, but changed his mind when Nazi Germany defeated France. Roosevelt believed he was the only Democrat who could win the election, win the war, and preserve the New Deal — all things that Harry Truman wound up doing instead.

With party opposition growing to include his own Vice President and having yet to declare his campaign, Roosevelt staged a stunt on the day of the convention, dictating a statement to Sen. Alben Barkley that suggested Roosevelt might not run. With crowds shouting "We want Roosevelt!", FDR announced and won 86.32% of the delegation.

In 1952, Truman declined to seek renomination after polls showed his dismal approval ratings led him to lose New Hampshire to Sen. Estes Kefauver (TN). In probably history's most obvious case of sour grapes, Truman later "revealed" he had decided to retire before his loss in New Hampshire. The eventual nominee was Adlai Stevenson of Illinois.

In 1968, President Lyndon Johnson narrowly won the New Hampshire primary over Eugene McCarthy 49-42%. Days later, Sen. Robert Kennedy entered the race and Johnson, sensing his party needed to move beyond his unpopular policies in Vietnam, resigned.

It should be noted that this was the last election in which the delegates were not primarily selected by state primaries. The eventual nominee was Vice President Hubert Humphrey, in what was seen as a maintenance of LBJ's control over the party. This lead to the McGovern reforms in 1972, which transferred control of the nomination process to state contests and paved the way for the nomination of — you guessed it — Sen. George McGovern.

In 1976, President Gerald Ford and Ronald Reagan battled it out all the way to the floor of the convention. Some credit Reagan's loss to his decision to choose centrist Richard Schweiker as running mate during the convention.

In 1980, Jimmy Carter faced serious competition from Senator Ted Kennedy. This is the last instance of an incumbent President losing a state primary. In modern times, we pledge fealty to the Gods of our party and don't ask questions, rather than support scrappy underdogs like the Kennedy family."

https://www.reddit.com/r/PoliticalDiscussion/comments/3vibgo/has_an_incumbent_president_ever_not_won_the/

[Green Habit]

You gotta think that this is going to be the first election since 1980 that a sitting President gets challenged for his own party's nomination.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/05/us/p ... pence.html

Senators Tom Cotton and Ben Sasse have already been to Iowa this year, Gov. John Kasich is eyeing a return visit to New Hampshire, and Mike Pence’s schedule is so full of political events that Republicans joke that he is acting more like a second-term vice president hoping to clear the field than a No. 2 sworn in a little over six months ago.

President Trump’s first term is ostensibly just warming up, but luminaries in his own party have begun what amounts to a shadow campaign for 2020 — as if the current occupant of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue weren’t involved.

The would-be candidates are cultivating some of the party’s most prominent donors, courting conservative interest groups and carefully enhancing their profiles. Mr. Trump has given no indication that he will decline to seek a second term.

But the sheer disarray surrounding this presidency — the intensifying investigation by the special counsel Robert S. Mueller III and the plain uncertainty about what Mr. Trump will do in the next week, let alone in the next election — have prompted Republican officeholders to take political steps unheard-of so soon into a new administration.

[run2death]

Rumor has it ESPN may be shutting down or drastically changing FiveThirtyEight.

You Nate Silver sycophants may have to find a new site to suck his c*ck.

[Green Habit]

Rumor has it ESPN may be shutting down or drastically changing FiveThirtyEight.

You Nate Silver sycophants may have to find a new site to suck his c*ck.

Link? Not seeing it on Google or Twitter.

[run2death]

Rumor has it ESPN may be shutting down or drastically changing FiveThirtyEight.

You Nate Silver sycophants may have to find a new site to suck his c*ck.

Link? Not seeing it on Google or Twitter.

It's literally a rumor floating around ESPN's NYC offices.

[Norris]

so where did you hear it?

[Jorge]

ESPN'S NYC OFFICES

[Norris]

oh

[Green Habit]

So is there anything online about this? I'm still drawing nothing.

But even if it's true, I doubt the central concept of FiveThirtyEight will go dark any time soon. Silver's been pretty sharp about keeping rights to his project no matter where he's been writing from.

[run2death]

I have an old j-school buddy who worked in the marketing department there.

Sounds like ESPN wants to turn it into strictly a "sports science" and "advanced stats" site and leave all the election stuff behind.

Hypothetically that would mean saying goodbye to NS.

I was sorta shocked.

I believe 538 was a top 100 site (in the U.S.) around election time, but then the bottom fell out. Seems like they would have been prepared for that.