The board's server will undergo upgrade maintenance tonight, Nov 5, 2014, beginning approximately around 10 PM ET. Prepare for some possible down time during this process.
FAQ    Search

Board index » Word on the Street » News & Debate




Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 69 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1, 2, 3, 4  Next
Author Message
 Post subject: Re: Official Prediction Thread
PostPosted: Wed November 07, 2018 6:23 pm 
Offline
User avatar
Future Drummer
 Profile

Joined: Tue February 12, 2013 5:03 pm
Posts: 3315
chud will not drive into a house in 2019


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: Official Prediction Thread
PostPosted: Wed November 07, 2018 6:24 pm 
Offline
User avatar
Future Drummer
 Profile

Joined: Thu December 20, 2012 4:45 pm
Posts: 3409
run2death wrote:
Dems win 2020 because of the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact.

GOP sues.

Case eventually goes to the Supreme Court.

Kavanaugh is the deciding vote and the WH is awarded to Trump.

Now THAT is a prediction! That's how it's done, folks.

_________________
"I want to see the whole picture--as nearly as I can. I don't want to put on the blinders of 'good and bad,' and limit my vision."-- In Dubious Battle



Top
 
 Post subject: Re: Official Prediction Thread
PostPosted: Wed November 07, 2018 6:25 pm 
Offline
User avatar
Site Admin
 Profile

Joined: Wed December 12, 2012 10:33 pm
Posts: 5648
4/5 wrote:
There will be a government shutdown of 14+ days at some point during the 2019-20 session of Congress.
Rank and file Dems are going to get irritated if there's a shutdown this long. Republicans generally don't care if government operations get jammed up, but Democrats do. I think Pelosi's going to have a difficult time getting her caucus to hold firm on that.

What do you think would trigger such a gov't shutdown?


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: Official Prediction Thread
PostPosted: Wed November 07, 2018 6:28 pm 
Offline
User avatar
Site Admin
 Profile

Joined: Wed December 12, 2012 10:33 pm
Posts: 5648
run2death wrote:
Dems win 2020 because of the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact.

GOP sues.

Case eventually goes to the Supreme Court.

Kavanaugh is the deciding vote and the WH is awarded to Trump.
I don't see any way the Compact gets put into effect before 2020. Dems don't control enough state legislatures and foolishly didn't get it put on enough ballot initiatives.

I do agree that this SCOTUS could very well strike it down as unconstitutional if it got to that point, though.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: Official Prediction Thread
PostPosted: Wed November 07, 2018 6:30 pm 
Offline
User avatar
Future Drummer
 Profile

Joined: Thu December 20, 2012 4:45 pm
Posts: 3409
Green Habit wrote:
4/5 wrote:
There will be a government shutdown of 14+ days at some point during the 2019-20 session of Congress.
Rank and file Dems are going to get irritated if there's a shutdown this long. Republicans generally don't care if government operations get jammed up, but Democrats do. I think Pelosi's going to have a difficult time getting her caucus to hold firm on that.

What do you think would trigger such a gov't shutdown?

Yeah, that's true. I immediately want to take it back. I had my impeachment prediction typed up, and thought "what else could happen in the House?" Didn't really give it the proper thought that this sacred exercise deserves.

New prediction: GH will be right about me being wrong about a government shutdown.

_________________
"I want to see the whole picture--as nearly as I can. I don't want to put on the blinders of 'good and bad,' and limit my vision."-- In Dubious Battle



Top
 
 Post subject: Re: Official Prediction Thread
PostPosted: Wed November 07, 2018 6:36 pm 
Offline
User avatar
Rank This Poster
 Profile

Joined: Mon March 18, 2013 11:48 pm
Posts: 4651
Green Habit wrote:
run2death wrote:
Dems win 2020 because of the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact.

GOP sues.

Case eventually goes to the Supreme Court.

Kavanaugh is the deciding vote and the WH is awarded to Trump.
I don't see any way the Compact gets put into effect before 2020. Dems don't control enough state legislatures and foolishly didn't get it put on enough ballot initiatives.

I do agree that this SCOTUS could very well strike it down as unconstitutional if it got to that point, though.

It's just another wildly inaccurate election prediction!

Spoiler: show
Image


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: Official Prediction Thread
PostPosted: Wed November 07, 2018 6:38 pm 
Offline
User avatar
Future Drummer
 Profile

Joined: Thu December 20, 2012 4:45 pm
Posts: 3409
run2death wrote:
Green Habit wrote:
run2death wrote:
Dems win 2020 because of the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact.

GOP sues.

Case eventually goes to the Supreme Court.

Kavanaugh is the deciding vote and the WH is awarded to Trump.
I don't see any way the Compact gets put into effect before 2020. Dems don't control enough state legislatures and foolishly didn't get it put on enough ballot initiatives.

I do agree that this SCOTUS could very well strike it down as unconstitutional if it got to that point, though.

It's that just another wildly inaccurate election prediction!

Spoiler: show
Image

I do resent him for his apparently complete and total lack of care about his appearance.

_________________
"I want to see the whole picture--as nearly as I can. I don't want to put on the blinders of 'good and bad,' and limit my vision."-- In Dubious Battle



Top
 
 Post subject: Re: Official Prediction Thread
PostPosted: Wed November 07, 2018 6:40 pm 
Offline
User avatar
Site Admin
 Profile

Joined: Wed December 12, 2012 10:33 pm
Posts: 5648
4/5 wrote:
I do resent him for his apparently complete and total lack of care about his appearance.
That just makes me like him more.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: Official Prediction Thread
PostPosted: Wed November 07, 2018 6:42 pm 
Offline
User avatar
Site Admin
 Profile

Joined: Wed December 12, 2012 10:33 pm
Posts: 5648
I'm too wimpy to actually put down "X will happen" predictions on most things. I'm much more inclined to instead set odds, like "X is more likely than not to happen", even if I think the "not" has decent odds to happen.

But here's one I have high confidence in, even if it's not 100% confidence:

--The Supreme Court declares partisan gerrymandering to be a nonjusticiable political question, with no exceptions.

What this means is that the practice will continue unabated for years to come, and the courts won't be allowed to do anything about it.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: Official Prediction Thread
PostPosted: Wed November 07, 2018 6:43 pm 
Offline
User avatar
Future Drummer
 Profile

Joined: Tue February 12, 2013 5:03 pm
Posts: 3315
4/5 wrote:
run2death wrote:
Green Habit wrote:
run2death wrote:
Dems win 2020 because of the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact.

GOP sues.

Case eventually goes to the Supreme Court.

Kavanaugh is the deciding vote and the WH is awarded to Trump.
I don't see any way the Compact gets put into effect before 2020. Dems don't control enough state legislatures and foolishly didn't get it put on enough ballot initiatives.

I do agree that this SCOTUS could very well strike it down as unconstitutional if it got to that point, though.

It's that just another wildly inaccurate election prediction!

Spoiler: show
Image

I do resent him for his apparently complete and total lack of care about his appearance.

His clothes fit better than Ted Cruz's.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: Official Prediction Thread
PostPosted: Wed November 07, 2018 6:46 pm 
Offline
User avatar
Rank This Poster
 Profile

Joined: Mon March 18, 2013 11:48 pm
Posts: 4651
--- wrote:
chud will not drive into a house in 2019



What a meaningful contribution to this thread.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: Official Prediction Thread
PostPosted: Wed November 07, 2018 6:46 pm 
Offline
User avatar
Future Drummer
 Profile

Joined: Tue February 12, 2013 5:03 pm
Posts: 3315
run2death wrote:
--- wrote:
chud will not drive into a house in 2019



What a meaningful contribution to this thread.

i exhausted my real talk quota in the midterm thread


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: Official Prediction Thread
PostPosted: Wed November 07, 2018 6:48 pm 
Offline
User avatar
Future Drummer
 Profile

Joined: Thu December 20, 2012 4:45 pm
Posts: 3409
Green Habit wrote:
I'm too wimpy to actually put down "X will happen" predictions on most things. I'm much more inclined to instead set odds, like "X is more likely than not to happen", even if I think the "not" has decent odds to happen.

But here's one I have high confidence in, even if it's not 100% confidence:

--The Supreme Court declares partisan gerrymandering to be a nonjusticiable political question, with no exceptions.

What this means is that the practice will continue unabated for years to come, and the courts won't be allowed to do anything about it.

:thumbsup:
I'm a fan of nuance, so I won't object.

Regarding your prediction, why didn't the Court do that when they were just given the chance to do just that last term? If my memory serves me, they ruled that the appellants lacked standing to bring the case forward, is that right?

_________________
"I want to see the whole picture--as nearly as I can. I don't want to put on the blinders of 'good and bad,' and limit my vision."-- In Dubious Battle



Top
 
 Post subject: Re: Official Prediction Thread
PostPosted: Wed November 07, 2018 6:58 pm 
Offline
User avatar
Site Admin
 Profile

Joined: Wed December 12, 2012 10:33 pm
Posts: 5648
4/5 wrote:
Green Habit wrote:
I'm too wimpy to actually put down "X will happen" predictions on most things. I'm much more inclined to instead set odds, like "X is more likely than not to happen", even if I think the "not" has decent odds to happen.

But here's one I have high confidence in, even if it's not 100% confidence:

--The Supreme Court declares partisan gerrymandering to be a nonjusticiable political question, with no exceptions.

What this means is that the practice will continue unabated for years to come, and the courts won't be allowed to do anything about it.

:thumbsup:
I'm a fan of nuance, so I won't object.

Regarding your prediction, why didn't the Court do that when they were just given the chance to do just that last term? If my memory serves me, they ruled that the appellants lacked standing to bring the case forward, is that right?
Because Kennedy wasn't willing to say that there's never a case in which it could be justiciable. He did the same thing in 2004, and that was one of the instances where O'Connor was decidedly to his right. Now that he's out and Kavanaugh's in, I think SCOTUS has five votes to do it now. I also think this is something the GOP will highly prioritize the next time their redistricting gets a court challenge.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: Official Prediction Thread
PostPosted: Wed November 07, 2018 7:02 pm 
Offline
User avatar
Future Drummer
 Profile

Joined: Thu December 20, 2012 4:45 pm
Posts: 3409
Green Habit wrote:
4/5 wrote:
Green Habit wrote:
I'm too wimpy to actually put down "X will happen" predictions on most things. I'm much more inclined to instead set odds, like "X is more likely than not to happen", even if I think the "not" has decent odds to happen.

But here's one I have high confidence in, even if it's not 100% confidence:

--The Supreme Court declares partisan gerrymandering to be a nonjusticiable political question, with no exceptions.

What this means is that the practice will continue unabated for years to come, and the courts won't be allowed to do anything about it.

:thumbsup:
I'm a fan of nuance, so I won't object.

Regarding your prediction, why didn't the Court do that when they were just given the chance to do just that last term? If my memory serves me, they ruled that the appellants lacked standing to bring the case forward, is that right?
Because Kennedy wasn't willing to say that there's never a case in which it could be justiciable. He did the same thing in 2004, and that was one of the instances where O'Connor was decidedly to his right. Now that he's out and Kavanaugh's in, I think SCOTUS has five votes to do it now. I also think this is something the GOP will highly prioritize the next time their redistricting gets a court challenge.

True. I really thought the whole wasted votes/surplus votes formula thing would have sufficiently appealed to Kennedy. At the very least, it seemed to be presented with him specifically in mind.

_________________
"I want to see the whole picture--as nearly as I can. I don't want to put on the blinders of 'good and bad,' and limit my vision."-- In Dubious Battle



Top
 
 Post subject: Re: Official Prediction Thread
PostPosted: Wed November 07, 2018 8:07 pm 
Offline
NEVER STOP JAMMING!
 Profile

Joined: Tue January 01, 2013 3:45 pm
Posts: 22148
Location: the beach
4/5 wrote:
doug rr wrote:
civil war

:cop:

Gonna need a time and date on that, sir.


soon


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: Official Prediction Thread
PostPosted: Wed November 07, 2018 8:29 pm 
Offline
User avatar
Site Admin
 Profile

Joined: Wed December 12, 2012 10:33 pm
Posts: 5648
Someone could have already made a killing in this thread by firing Sessions. That one now seemed like a no brainer.

Anyone dare to set an O/U on when Mueller gets axed?


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: Official Prediction Thread
PostPosted: Wed November 07, 2018 9:17 pm 
Offline
User avatar
The Master
 Profile

Joined: Tue January 01, 2013 2:04 pm
Posts: 51826
Location: Sector 7-G
Green Habit wrote:
Anyone dare to set an O/U on when Mueller gets axed?

Thanksgiving


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: Official Prediction Thread
PostPosted: Wed November 07, 2018 9:37 pm 
Offline
User avatar
An enigma of a man shaped hole in the wall between reality and the soul of the devil.
 Profile

Joined: Tue January 01, 2013 5:13 pm
Posts: 34582
Location: Donkeys live a long time.
I have no idea what will happen. This is exciting!

_________________
Death is coming. Eat trash. Be free.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: Official Prediction Thread
PostPosted: Wed November 07, 2018 9:58 pm 
Offline
User avatar
AnalLog
 Profile

Joined: Tue January 08, 2013 10:23 pm
Posts: 1870
The Wall will be funded by 2020.


Top
 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 69 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1, 2, 3, 4  Next

Board index » Word on the Street » News & Debate


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: bune, McParadigm, Rangi Guy and 2 guests


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum

Search for:
Jump to:  
It is currently Thu November 15, 2018 5:03 pm