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Official Prediction Thread http://forums.theskyiscrape.com/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=12928 |
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Author: | 4/5 [ Wed November 07, 2018 5:29 pm ] |
Post subject: | Official Prediction Thread |
This seems like as a good a time as any. We're essentially equidistant from the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. This is the thread where you can boldly go on record to make predictions. You're more than welcome to include a confidence indicator of your choice if you'd like, but certainly don't have to. You can also feel free to make tempered predictions of unlikely events, but to spell out the means by which they might be more probable than people would currently expect. It should probably be things that are quantifiable. I'm thinking things like elections, policies, and the economy, but by no means limited to those things. The more creative the better. If you're predicting something that could potentially be open ended, then include a time frame. For example, "Unemployment will be over 5% by the end of 2019" is good, "there will be another recession" not so much. "Trump will divide the country further" isn't great but "Trump will win over 80% of rural voters in 2020" is much better. I'll update the header post with your predictions, so over time if this catches on you'll be able to come back to this post and it'll be organized by each participant with their prediction and the date of that prediction. This will allow you to change your prediction over time. I'll keep a record of your original, but as we get new information it'd be perfectly reasonable to update/change what you think. Red = Missed predictions Green = Successful predictions Predictions Simple Torture
tragabigzanda
The Argonaut
4/5
run2death
Green Habit
cutuphalfdead
bart
96583UP
Bammer
simple schoolboy
McParadigm
Mickey
dscans
dimejinky99
superbloodwolfmoon
doug rr
verb_to_trust
E.H. Ruddock
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Author: | Simple Torture [ Wed November 07, 2018 5:33 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Official Prediction Thread |
Donald Trump will be re-elected in 2020. |
Author: | tragabigzanda [ Wed November 07, 2018 5:37 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Official Prediction Thread |
There will be: a 10% jump in mass shootings before 2020 one massive environmental catastrophe (100K+ dead or displaced) one historic cyber attack on a US utility or other core system (banking, etc) |
Author: | doug rr [ Wed November 07, 2018 5:38 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Official Prediction Thread |
civil war |
Author: | 4/5 [ Wed November 07, 2018 5:38 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Official Prediction Thread |
Simple Torture wrote: Donald Trump will be re-elected in 2020. I thought about starting there as well, but I'm not quite confident enough to do so. |
Author: | 4/5 [ Wed November 07, 2018 5:39 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Official Prediction Thread |
doug rr wrote: civil war Gonna need a time and date on that, sir. |
Author: | 4/5 [ Wed November 07, 2018 5:40 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Official Prediction Thread |
tragabigzanda wrote: There will be: a 10% jump in mass shootings before 2020 one massive environmental catastrophe (100K+ dead or displaced) one historic cyber attack on a US utility or other core system (banking, etc) Are the second and third before 2020 as well? |
Author: | tragabigzanda [ Wed November 07, 2018 5:42 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Official Prediction Thread |
4/5 wrote: tragabigzanda wrote: There will be: a 10% jump in mass shootings before 2020 one massive environmental catastrophe (100K+ dead or displaced) one historic cyber attack on a US utility or other core system (banking, etc) Are the second and third before 2020 as well? Yes |
Author: | tragabigzanda [ Wed November 07, 2018 5:43 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Official Prediction Thread |
tragabigzanda wrote: 4/5 wrote: tragabigzanda wrote: There will be: a 10% jump in mass shootings before 2020 one massive environmental catastrophe (100K+ dead or displaced) one historic cyber attack on a US utility or other core system (banking, etc) Are the second and third before 2020 as well? Yes Now going to add another prediction: One giant RM sleepover at Ruddo's prepper cave |
Author: | Simple Torture [ Wed November 07, 2018 5:45 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Official Prediction Thread |
4/5 wrote: Simple Torture wrote: Donald Trump will be re-elected in 2020. I thought about starting there as well, but I'm not quite confident enough to do so. Only 3 pure 1-term presidents in the past 100 years. Basically everything would have to "break right" for Democrats: a huge downturn in the economy (this would qualify as good for election chances, but obviously not ideal), an extremely popular candidate who can rally the base and independents and casual voters, and some extremely unpopular policy decision by the Trump administration (a war?). I would add "a scandal" to the list, but, you know, Trump. |
Author: | The Argonaut [ Wed November 07, 2018 5:45 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Official Prediction Thread |
Harris-Klobuchar defeats Trump-Pence in 2020. It's a long, ugly, embarrassing campaign season, and the final result is way too close. Florida, Georgia, Texas, NC, and Arizona stay red, but the formerly blue Midwest states and PA return to blue. |
Author: | digster [ Wed November 07, 2018 5:55 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Official Prediction Thread |
Simple Torture wrote: 4/5 wrote: Simple Torture wrote: Donald Trump will be re-elected in 2020. I thought about starting there as well, but I'm not quite confident enough to do so. Only 3 pure 1-term presidents in the past 100 years. Basically everything would have to "break right" for Democrats: a huge downturn in the economy (this would qualify as good for election chances, but obviously not ideal), an extremely popular candidate who can rally the base and independents and casual voters, and some extremely unpopular policy decision by the Trump administration (a war?). I would add "a scandal" to the list, but, you know, Trump. I lean this way as well, but Trump's unconventionality may go both ways; he should be far more popular than he is right now. Obama had a higher approval rating at his 2010 Midterms in the midst of a recession and the backlash to Obamacare. Trump was handed a country reaching the height of economic recovery, and he can't seem to improve his numbers. I don't know what that means for 2020, but it seems notable. I will predict that no matter who wins (Trump or the Democrats), the Dem candidate's popular vote win over Trump will be notably higher than Clinton's in 2016. |
Author: | Strat [ Wed November 07, 2018 6:01 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Official Prediction Thread |
digster wrote: Simple Torture wrote: 4/5 wrote: Simple Torture wrote: Donald Trump will be re-elected in 2020. I thought about starting there as well, but I'm not quite confident enough to do so. Only 3 pure 1-term presidents in the past 100 years. Basically everything would have to "break right" for Democrats: a huge downturn in the economy (this would qualify as good for election chances, but obviously not ideal), an extremely popular candidate who can rally the base and independents and casual voters, and some extremely unpopular policy decision by the Trump administration (a war?). I would add "a scandal" to the list, but, you know, Trump. I lean this way as well, but Trump's unconventionality may go both ways; he should be far more popular than he is right now. Obama had a higher approval rating at his 2010 Midterms in the midst of a recession and the backlash to Obamacare. Trump was handed a country reaching the height of economic recovery, and he can't seem to improve his numbers. I don't know what that means for 2020, but it seems notable. I will predict that no matter who wins (Trump or the Democrats), the Dem candidate's popular vote win over Trump will be notably higher than Clinton's in 2016. I think only the Dem's can fuck it up. Trump has lost and/or not gained independents and has continually lost support of women and suburban/urban areas. His base will always be his base but im not sure that can carry him through an election, unless the Dem's run Hillary again. |
Author: | The Argonaut [ Wed November 07, 2018 6:04 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Official Prediction Thread |
Whichever Democrat wins the SC primary will eventually win the nomination |
Author: | 4/5 [ Wed November 07, 2018 6:14 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Official Prediction Thread |
digster wrote: Simple Torture wrote: 4/5 wrote: Simple Torture wrote: Donald Trump will be re-elected in 2020. I thought about starting there as well, but I'm not quite confident enough to do so. Only 3 pure 1-term presidents in the past 100 years. Basically everything would have to "break right" for Democrats: a huge downturn in the economy (this would qualify as good for election chances, but obviously not ideal), an extremely popular candidate who can rally the base and independents and casual voters, and some extremely unpopular policy decision by the Trump administration (a war?). I would add "a scandal" to the list, but, you know, Trump. I lean this way as well, but Trump's unconventionality may go both ways; he should be far more popular than he is right now. Obama had a higher approval rating at his 2010 Midterms in the midst of a recession and the backlash to Obamacare. Trump was handed a country reaching the height of economic recovery, and he can't seem to improve his numbers. I don't know what that means for 2020, but it seems notable. I will predict that no matter who wins (Trump or the Democrats), the Dem candidate's popular vote win over Trump will be notably higher than Clinton's in 2016. Yeah, history is tough here. You could go through and have very simple and specific explanations for this phenomena: Obama was uniquely popular/skilled at GOTV/GOP voter suppression attempts backfired spectacularly Bush--war time president/Kerry was an awful candidate Clinton--strong economy/was Dole still alive in 1996? Reagan--good economic recovery/grandpa/bipartisan appeal Nixon--this one's kinda odd. Southern strategy/law and order guy/way-too-liberal opponent Ike--war hero/strong economy Idk. There is a part of me that fears he could actually win in 2020. My takeaway from last night was that 2016 was not a fluke and that his supporters are mostly doubling and tripling down on him. But he can definitely be beat. His opponent will matter, though. |
Author: | Strat [ Wed November 07, 2018 6:17 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Official Prediction Thread |
4/5 wrote: digster wrote: Simple Torture wrote: 4/5 wrote: Simple Torture wrote: Donald Trump will be re-elected in 2020. I thought about starting there as well, but I'm not quite confident enough to do so. Only 3 pure 1-term presidents in the past 100 years. Basically everything would have to "break right" for Democrats: a huge downturn in the economy (this would qualify as good for election chances, but obviously not ideal), an extremely popular candidate who can rally the base and independents and casual voters, and some extremely unpopular policy decision by the Trump administration (a war?). I would add "a scandal" to the list, but, you know, Trump. I lean this way as well, but Trump's unconventionality may go both ways; he should be far more popular than he is right now. Obama had a higher approval rating at his 2010 Midterms in the midst of a recession and the backlash to Obamacare. Trump was handed a country reaching the height of economic recovery, and he can't seem to improve his numbers. I don't know what that means for 2020, but it seems notable. I will predict that no matter who wins (Trump or the Democrats), the Dem candidate's popular vote win over Trump will be notably higher than Clinton's in 2016. Yeah, history is tough here. You could go through and have very simple and specific explanations for this phenomena: Obama was uniquely popular/skilled at GOTV/GOP voter suppression attempts backfired spectacularly Bush--war time president/Kerry was an awful candidate Clinton--strong economy/was Dole still alive in 1996? Reagan--good economic recovery/grandpa/bipartisan appeal Nixon--this one's kinda odd. Southern strategy/law and order guy/way-too-liberal opponent Ike--war hero/strong economy Idk. There is a part of me that fears he could actually win in 2020. My takeaway from last night was that 2016 was not a fluke and that his supporters are mostly doubling and tripling down on him. But he can definitely be beat. His opponent will matter, though. I think last night was the final nail in the coffin for what we once knew the republican party to be. Trump supporters came out to vote, as you stated, and candidates that were full on trumpy won. |
Author: | Green Habit [ Wed November 07, 2018 6:18 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Official Prediction Thread |
Trump absolutely could be reelected, but we should remember that he went against an equally unpopular opponent in Hillary Clinton, and even then, won by a hair on the chin with the correct states in the EC math all going his way. If the Dems nominate even a marginally better candidate than Clinton, Trump could be in trouble, and if there's a recession his ass could be grass. |
Author: | 4/5 [ Wed November 07, 2018 6:19 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Official Prediction Thread |
The House will not open articles of impeachment against Trump during the 2019-20 session of Congress. There will be a government shutdown of 14+ days at some point during the 2019-20 session of Congress. |
Author: | 4/5 [ Wed November 07, 2018 6:20 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Official Prediction Thread |
Green Habit wrote: Trump absolutely could be reelected, but we should remember that he went against an equally unpopular opponent in Hillary Clinton, and even then, won by a hair on the chin with the correct states in the EC math all going his way. If the Dems nominate even a marginally better candidate than Clinton, Trump could be in trouble, and if there's a recession his ass could be grass. Agreed on all counts. |
Author: | run2death [ Wed November 07, 2018 6:22 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Official Prediction Thread |
Dems win 2020 because of the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact. GOP sues. Case eventually goes to the Supreme Court. Kavanaugh is the deciding vote and the WH is awarded to Trump. |
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