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 Post subject: Official Prediction Thread
PostPosted: Wed November 07, 2018 5:29 pm 
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This seems like as a good a time as any. We're essentially equidistant from the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections.

This is the thread where you can boldly go on record to make predictions. You're more than welcome to include a confidence indicator of your choice if you'd like, but certainly don't have to. You can also feel free to make tempered predictions of unlikely events, but to spell out the means by which they might be more probable than people would currently expect.

It should probably be things that are quantifiable. I'm thinking things like elections, policies, and the economy, but by no means limited to those things. The more creative the better.

If you're predicting something that could potentially be open ended, then include a time frame. For example, "Unemployment will be over 5% by the end of 2019" is good, "there will be another recession" not so much. "Trump will divide the country further" isn't great but "Trump will win over 80% of rural voters in 2020" is much better.

I'll update the header post with your predictions, so over time if this catches on you'll be able to come back to this post and it'll be organized by each participant with their prediction and the date of that prediction. This will allow you to change your prediction over time. I'll keep a record of your original, but as we get new information it'd be perfectly reasonable to update/change what you think.

Red = Missed predictions
Green = Successful predictions

Predictions

Simple Torture
Spoiler: show
(11/7/18) Donald Trump will be re-elected in 2020.
(1/16/19) No woman will be elected to the U.S. presidency until both of the major parties nominate women as their candidates in the same year...and that first female president will be a Republican.
(11/24/19)RBG will die on 2/13/20, exactly four years after Scalia. A replacement will be confirmed by the Senate before the Ides of March.
(2/11/19) There will be no general election debates between Donald Trump and his Democratic challenger.


tragabigzanda
Spoiler: show
(11/7/18) a 10% jump in mass shootings before 2020
(11/7/18) one massive environmental catastrophe (100K+ dead or displaced) before 2020
(11/7/18) one historic cyber attack on a US utility or other core system (banking, etc) before 2020
(11/8/18) there will be a political assassination of some sort, of a US political/judicial figure
(10/2/19) Trump survives impeachment in the Senate and ekes out a narrow victory in 2020, despite TX flipping blue. Just after he renews his oath of office, and as civil war in China takes hold, a new bombshell scandal involving Kushner and the Saudis comes to light, as the market simultaneously crashes into full-on recession.

Trump dies of stress-related causes; the Newsweek photo shows Melania and Pence standing over the flag-draped casket with the headline “Now What?”.

Also we find out Baron is a robot sent back from the future to kill Adam Schiff.
(5/5/19) Trump will win reelection, but he'll lose the senate as economic anxiety gets shifted to down-ballot races. He'll be impeached, and we'll welcome our new President Nikki Haley
(5/5/19) Once Biden announces Warren, Pence’s days are numbered
(5/12/19) States will reopen out of economic necessity/lack of Federal support. Distancing and the ability to work from home will become a pleasure of the haves, while illness and death will become the reality for have-nots (and the ignorant and stupid).
(8/23/19) Haley/Scott 2024


The Argonaut
Spoiler: show
(11/7/18) Harris-Klobuchar defeats Trump-Pence in 2020. It's a long, ugly, embarrassing campaign season, and the final result is way too close.
(11/7/18) Florida, Georgia, Texas, NC, and Arizona stay red, but the formerly blue Midwest states and PA return to blue
(11/7/18) Whichever Democrat wins the SC primary will eventually win the nomination


4/5
Spoiler: show
(11/7/18) The House will not open articles on impeachment against Trump in the 2019-20 session of Congress.
(11/7/18) There will be a 14+ day government shutdown during the 2019-20 session of Congress.
(11/8/18) Clarence Thomas will shuffle off this mortal coil before Ruth Bader Ginsburg.
(6/25/19) No candidate will win the nomination on the first ballot at the DNC.
(11/6/19) If Trump is on the ballot in 2020, he will lose the popular vote by more than 8 million votes.


run2death
Spoiler: show
(11/7/18) Dems win 2020 because of the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact.
GOP sues.
Case eventually goes to the Supreme Court.
Kavanaugh is the deciding vote and the WH is awarded to Trump.

(11/8/18) Hillary will die 10-plus years before Bill.


Green Habit
Spoiler: show
(11/7/18) The Supreme Court declares partisan gerrymandering to be a nonjusticiable political question, with no exceptions.


cutuphalfdead
Spoiler: show
(11/7/18) Mueller will be fired by Thanksgiving.


bart
Spoiler: show
(11/7/18) The wall will be funded by 2020.


96583UP
Spoiler: show
(11/7/18) By November 2019, NY AG charges Trump Organization with Money Laundering and Tax Fraud
(12/19/19) By November 2023, NY AG charges Trump Organization with Money Laundering and Tax Fraud
(5/5/19) Biden will wait a while to announce his VP because he has little to gain by identifying them early
(6/30/19) A mass exodus of americans from northern states to southern states will occur after winter arrives and covid spreads and people can’t dine or do things outside in the north anymore


Bammer
Spoiler: show
(11/8/18) Trump dies of heart attack prior to 2020 election night.


simple schoolboy
Spoiler: show
(11/8/18) Kevin DeLeon continues to sponsor ineffectual gun control measures in the California Senate.


McParadigm
Spoiler: show
(11/8/18) Any possible future that does not involve a completed and thorough investigation made public is likely also one in which we see coalitions of major cities and/or states withholding funding from the federal government. Places like California, where more money is sent out than is returned via federal aid.
(12/19/19) Someday we will learn what was behind this cluster of resignations, and be amazed at the scope of impeachable behavior he was engaging in even while he was being impeached.
(5/6/19) Donald Trump will definitely not win re-election without some extreme and unexpected circumstantial change.


Mickey
Spoiler: show
(3/8/19)It's definitely Bernie.
(11/24/19)Bloomberg won't drop out for a long time--maybe not until the convention itself--but he also won't win a single primary state.
(4/8/20) Biden is going to lose by more than 77 electoral college votes.
(some time after 4/8/20) I'm definitely going to eat shit on this one.


dscans
Spoiler: show
(3/11/19)The child of Jon and Daenerys will sit on the Iron Throne.
(3/31/19) Trump will give pete buttigieg a stupid nickname, like "buttman." He won't apologize for it, but will later tweet "Gay people love me!"
(8/21/19)Within the next two presidential elections Texas will flip blue.


dimejinky99
Spoiler: show
(3/12/19)Trump is gonna get caught cheating cheating with Melania’s stand in.


superbloodwolfmoon
Spoiler: show
(10/2/19) I'd be really surprised if Trump serves out the remainder of 2019.I believe Trump is finished at this point.


doug rr
Spoiler: show
(5/6/19)civil war after the election...doug and the mrs move to vancouver sooner than planned
(5/12/19)Fauci will be fired no later than tomorrow night.


verb_to_trust
Spoiler: show
(5/15/19) WFH as a broad based way forward for the American workforce is a myth. It'll be like 10 people, tops with the rest of the jobs put in the wood chipper.


E.H. Ruddock
Spoiler: show
(5/18/19) If Trump wins the election this year, he will absolutely try to get rid of term limits in four years

_________________
"I want to see the whole picture--as nearly as I can. I don't want to put on the blinders of 'good and bad,' and limit my vision."-- In Dubious Battle



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 Post subject: Re: Official Prediction Thread
PostPosted: Wed November 07, 2018 5:33 pm 
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Donald Trump will be re-elected in 2020.

_________________
McParadigm wrote:
lol


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 Post subject: Re: Official Prediction Thread
PostPosted: Wed November 07, 2018 5:37 pm 
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The Master
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There will be:

a 10% jump in mass shootings before 2020

one massive environmental catastrophe (100K+ dead or displaced)

one historic cyber attack on a US utility or other core system (banking, etc)


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 Post subject: Re: Official Prediction Thread
PostPosted: Wed November 07, 2018 5:38 pm 
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civil war


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 Post subject: Re: Official Prediction Thread
PostPosted: Wed November 07, 2018 5:38 pm 
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Simple Torture wrote:
Donald Trump will be re-elected in 2020.

I thought about starting there as well, but I'm not quite confident enough to do so.

_________________
"I want to see the whole picture--as nearly as I can. I don't want to put on the blinders of 'good and bad,' and limit my vision."-- In Dubious Battle



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 Post subject: Re: Official Prediction Thread
PostPosted: Wed November 07, 2018 5:39 pm 
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doug rr wrote:
civil war

:cop:

Gonna need a time and date on that, sir.

_________________
"I want to see the whole picture--as nearly as I can. I don't want to put on the blinders of 'good and bad,' and limit my vision."-- In Dubious Battle



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 Post subject: Re: Official Prediction Thread
PostPosted: Wed November 07, 2018 5:40 pm 
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tragabigzanda wrote:
There will be:

a 10% jump in mass shootings before 2020

one massive environmental catastrophe (100K+ dead or displaced)

one historic cyber attack on a US utility or other core system (banking, etc)

Are the second and third before 2020 as well?

_________________
"I want to see the whole picture--as nearly as I can. I don't want to put on the blinders of 'good and bad,' and limit my vision."-- In Dubious Battle



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 Post subject: Re: Official Prediction Thread
PostPosted: Wed November 07, 2018 5:42 pm 
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The Master
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Location: Different mountains than strat and bodysnatcher.
4/5 wrote:
tragabigzanda wrote:
There will be:

a 10% jump in mass shootings before 2020

one massive environmental catastrophe (100K+ dead or displaced)

one historic cyber attack on a US utility or other core system (banking, etc)

Are the second and third before 2020 as well?

Yes


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 Post subject: Re: Official Prediction Thread
PostPosted: Wed November 07, 2018 5:43 pm 
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tragabigzanda wrote:
4/5 wrote:
tragabigzanda wrote:
There will be:

a 10% jump in mass shootings before 2020

one massive environmental catastrophe (100K+ dead or displaced)

one historic cyber attack on a US utility or other core system (banking, etc)

Are the second and third before 2020 as well?

Yes

Now going to add another prediction: One giant RM sleepover at Ruddo's prepper cave


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 Post subject: Re: Official Prediction Thread
PostPosted: Wed November 07, 2018 5:45 pm 
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4/5 wrote:
Simple Torture wrote:
Donald Trump will be re-elected in 2020.

I thought about starting there as well, but I'm not quite confident enough to do so.


Only 3 pure 1-term presidents in the past 100 years. Basically everything would have to "break right" for Democrats: a huge downturn in the economy (this would qualify as good for election chances, but obviously not ideal), an extremely popular candidate who can rally the base and independents and casual voters, and some extremely unpopular policy decision by the Trump administration (a war?). I would add "a scandal" to the list, but, you know, Trump.

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McParadigm wrote:
lol


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 Post subject: Re: Official Prediction Thread
PostPosted: Wed November 07, 2018 5:45 pm 
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Harris-Klobuchar defeats Trump-Pence in 2020. It's a long, ugly, embarrassing campaign season, and the final result is way too close. Florida, Georgia, Texas, NC, and Arizona stay red, but the formerly blue Midwest states and PA return to blue.

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spike wrote:
argo's work here is done

off to devise the next train wreck
Dev wrote:
Argo's strategy: Placate your enemies and leave the people defending you out to dry; be alone.


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 Post subject: Re: Official Prediction Thread
PostPosted: Wed November 07, 2018 5:55 pm 
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Simple Torture wrote:
4/5 wrote:
Simple Torture wrote:
Donald Trump will be re-elected in 2020.

I thought about starting there as well, but I'm not quite confident enough to do so.


Only 3 pure 1-term presidents in the past 100 years. Basically everything would have to "break right" for Democrats: a huge downturn in the economy (this would qualify as good for election chances, but obviously not ideal), an extremely popular candidate who can rally the base and independents and casual voters, and some extremely unpopular policy decision by the Trump administration (a war?). I would add "a scandal" to the list, but, you know, Trump.


I lean this way as well, but Trump's unconventionality may go both ways; he should be far more popular than he is right now. Obama had a higher approval rating at his 2010 Midterms in the midst of a recession and the backlash to Obamacare. Trump was handed a country reaching the height of economic recovery, and he can't seem to improve his numbers. I don't know what that means for 2020, but it seems notable.

I will predict that no matter who wins (Trump or the Democrats), the Dem candidate's popular vote win over Trump will be notably higher than Clinton's in 2016.


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 Post subject: Re: Official Prediction Thread
PostPosted: Wed November 07, 2018 6:01 pm 
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digster wrote:
Simple Torture wrote:
4/5 wrote:
Simple Torture wrote:
Donald Trump will be re-elected in 2020.

I thought about starting there as well, but I'm not quite confident enough to do so.


Only 3 pure 1-term presidents in the past 100 years. Basically everything would have to "break right" for Democrats: a huge downturn in the economy (this would qualify as good for election chances, but obviously not ideal), an extremely popular candidate who can rally the base and independents and casual voters, and some extremely unpopular policy decision by the Trump administration (a war?). I would add "a scandal" to the list, but, you know, Trump.


I lean this way as well, but Trump's unconventionality may go both ways; he should be far more popular than he is right now. Obama had a higher approval rating at his 2010 Midterms in the midst of a recession and the backlash to Obamacare. Trump was handed a country reaching the height of economic recovery, and he can't seem to improve his numbers. I don't know what that means for 2020, but it seems notable.

I will predict that no matter who wins (Trump or the Democrats), the Dem candidate's popular vote win over Trump will be notably higher than Clinton's in 2016.

I think only the Dem's can fuck it up. Trump has lost and/or not gained independents and has continually lost support of women and suburban/urban areas. His base will always be his base but im not sure that can carry him through an election, unless the Dem's run Hillary again.


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 Post subject: Re: Official Prediction Thread
PostPosted: Wed November 07, 2018 6:04 pm 
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Whichever Democrat wins the SC primary will eventually win the nomination

_________________
spike wrote:
argo's work here is done

off to devise the next train wreck
Dev wrote:
Argo's strategy: Placate your enemies and leave the people defending you out to dry; be alone.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: Official Prediction Thread
PostPosted: Wed November 07, 2018 6:14 pm 
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digster wrote:
Simple Torture wrote:
4/5 wrote:
Simple Torture wrote:
Donald Trump will be re-elected in 2020.

I thought about starting there as well, but I'm not quite confident enough to do so.


Only 3 pure 1-term presidents in the past 100 years. Basically everything would have to "break right" for Democrats: a huge downturn in the economy (this would qualify as good for election chances, but obviously not ideal), an extremely popular candidate who can rally the base and independents and casual voters, and some extremely unpopular policy decision by the Trump administration (a war?). I would add "a scandal" to the list, but, you know, Trump.


I lean this way as well, but Trump's unconventionality may go both ways; he should be far more popular than he is right now. Obama had a higher approval rating at his 2010 Midterms in the midst of a recession and the backlash to Obamacare. Trump was handed a country reaching the height of economic recovery, and he can't seem to improve his numbers. I don't know what that means for 2020, but it seems notable.

I will predict that no matter who wins (Trump or the Democrats), the Dem candidate's popular vote win over Trump will be notably higher than Clinton's in 2016.

Yeah, history is tough here. You could go through and have very simple and specific explanations for this phenomena:
Obama was uniquely popular/skilled at GOTV/GOP voter suppression attempts backfired spectacularly
Bush--war time president/Kerry was an awful candidate
Clinton--strong economy/was Dole still alive in 1996?
Reagan--good economic recovery/grandpa/bipartisan appeal
Nixon--this one's kinda odd. Southern strategy/law and order guy/way-too-liberal opponent
Ike--war hero/strong economy

Idk. There is a part of me that fears he could actually win in 2020. My takeaway from last night was that 2016 was not a fluke and that his supporters are mostly doubling and tripling down on him. But he can definitely be beat. His opponent will matter, though.

_________________
"I want to see the whole picture--as nearly as I can. I don't want to put on the blinders of 'good and bad,' and limit my vision."-- In Dubious Battle



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 Post subject: Re: Official Prediction Thread
PostPosted: Wed November 07, 2018 6:17 pm 
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4/5 wrote:
digster wrote:
Simple Torture wrote:
4/5 wrote:
Simple Torture wrote:
Donald Trump will be re-elected in 2020.

I thought about starting there as well, but I'm not quite confident enough to do so.


Only 3 pure 1-term presidents in the past 100 years. Basically everything would have to "break right" for Democrats: a huge downturn in the economy (this would qualify as good for election chances, but obviously not ideal), an extremely popular candidate who can rally the base and independents and casual voters, and some extremely unpopular policy decision by the Trump administration (a war?). I would add "a scandal" to the list, but, you know, Trump.


I lean this way as well, but Trump's unconventionality may go both ways; he should be far more popular than he is right now. Obama had a higher approval rating at his 2010 Midterms in the midst of a recession and the backlash to Obamacare. Trump was handed a country reaching the height of economic recovery, and he can't seem to improve his numbers. I don't know what that means for 2020, but it seems notable.

I will predict that no matter who wins (Trump or the Democrats), the Dem candidate's popular vote win over Trump will be notably higher than Clinton's in 2016.

Yeah, history is tough here. You could go through and have very simple and specific explanations for this phenomena:
Obama was uniquely popular/skilled at GOTV/GOP voter suppression attempts backfired spectacularly
Bush--war time president/Kerry was an awful candidate
Clinton--strong economy/was Dole still alive in 1996?
Reagan--good economic recovery/grandpa/bipartisan appeal
Nixon--this one's kinda odd. Southern strategy/law and order guy/way-too-liberal opponent
Ike--war hero/strong economy

Idk. There is a part of me that fears he could actually win in 2020. My takeaway from last night was that 2016 was not a fluke and that his supporters are mostly doubling and tripling down on him. But he can definitely be beat. His opponent will matter, though.


I think last night was the final nail in the coffin for what we once knew the republican party to be. Trump supporters came out to vote, as you stated, and candidates that were full on trumpy won.


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 Post subject: Re: Official Prediction Thread
PostPosted: Wed November 07, 2018 6:18 pm 
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Trump absolutely could be reelected, but we should remember that he went against an equally unpopular opponent in Hillary Clinton, and even then, won by a hair on the chin with the correct states in the EC math all going his way. If the Dems nominate even a marginally better candidate than Clinton, Trump could be in trouble, and if there's a recession his ass could be grass.


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 Post subject: Re: Official Prediction Thread
PostPosted: Wed November 07, 2018 6:19 pm 
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The House will not open articles of impeachment against Trump during the 2019-20 session of Congress.

There will be a government shutdown of 14+ days at some point during the 2019-20 session of Congress.

_________________
"I want to see the whole picture--as nearly as I can. I don't want to put on the blinders of 'good and bad,' and limit my vision."-- In Dubious Battle



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 Post subject: Re: Official Prediction Thread
PostPosted: Wed November 07, 2018 6:20 pm 
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Green Habit wrote:
Trump absolutely could be reelected, but we should remember that he went against an equally unpopular opponent in Hillary Clinton, and even then, won by a hair on the chin with the correct states in the EC math all going his way. If the Dems nominate even a marginally better candidate than Clinton, Trump could be in trouble, and if there's a recession his ass could be grass.

Agreed on all counts.

_________________
"I want to see the whole picture--as nearly as I can. I don't want to put on the blinders of 'good and bad,' and limit my vision."-- In Dubious Battle



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 Post subject: Re: Official Prediction Thread
PostPosted: Wed November 07, 2018 6:22 pm 
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Dems win 2020 because of the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact.

GOP sues.

Case eventually goes to the Supreme Court.

Kavanaugh is the deciding vote and the WH is awarded to Trump.


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