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 Post subject: Redistricting
PostPosted: Tue August 10, 2021 11:54 am 
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This is going to be real awesome to follow:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/re ... 2022-maps/


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 Post subject: Re: The US Census / Citizenship Question
PostPosted: Thu August 12, 2021 6:06 pm 
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In purely functional immediate (redistricting) terms this is a very unexpected boon to Democrats, and in future political decision-making terms, this is it:


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 Post subject: Re: The US Census / Citizenship Question
PostPosted: Thu August 12, 2021 6:37 pm 
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I’m with you on the future plans for the GOP coalition build, but thing about the immediate impact on redistricting feels somewhat premature. As for apportionment, wouldnt the rural losses just mean that the rural areas are even further lumped together, with the potential benefit of picking up some suburban/geographically outlying urban areas to make the numbers work?


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 Post subject: Re: The US Census / Citizenship Question
PostPosted: Thu August 12, 2021 7:01 pm 
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tragabigzanda wrote:
I’m with you on the future plans for the GOP coalition build, but thing about the immediate impact on redistricting feels somewhat premature. As for apportionment, wouldnt the rural losses just mean that the rural areas are even further lumped together, with the potential benefit of picking up some suburban/geographically outlying urban areas to make the numbers work?
I feel like it doesn't matter what the numbers say, the GOP is drawing the lines in their favor regardless.


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 Post subject: Re: The US Census / Citizenship Question
PostPosted: Thu August 12, 2021 7:07 pm 
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elliseamos wrote:
tragabigzanda wrote:
I’m with you on the future plans for the GOP coalition build, but thing about the immediate impact on redistricting feels somewhat premature. As for apportionment, wouldnt the rural losses just mean that the rural areas are even further lumped together, with the potential benefit of picking up some suburban/geographically outlying urban areas to make the numbers work?
I feel like it doesn't matter what the numbers say, the GOP is drawing the lines in their favor regardless.


Is this really a thing we need to be worried about?

https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/ ... pe-2021-22

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 Post subject: Re: The US Census / Citizenship Question
PostPosted: Thu August 12, 2021 7:28 pm 
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Yeah we had a guy from the Brennan Center on our show in 2019. My key takeaway was that for states with bipartisan/nonpartisan redistricting commissions, it’s incredibly easy for just a handful of citizens to have an impact on how the lines get drawn. But for states that draw the lines through the legislature or courts, it’s much more difficult.


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 Post subject: Re: The US Census / Citizenship Question
PostPosted: Thu August 12, 2021 9:57 pm 
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Quote:
“Population gains were greatest in suburban areas and least in remote rural areas. The suburbs had both natural increase and migration gains fueled both by domestic migrants and immigration,” Johnson said.

The growth isn’t limited to suburbs: All ten of America’s largest cities added population in the last decade, including places like Chicago and New York City, which have seen net out-migration in the last few years.

But the suburbs are the areas growing the fastest. Consider King County, Seattle’s home: The city itself added 100,000 new residents over the last decade, which means 200,000 new residents moved into other towns and cities to be close to Seattle. Kent, a southern suburb just east of SeaTac Airport, was one of the fastest growing cities of the last decade.


https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watc ... sus-report


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 Post subject: Re: The US Census / Citizenship Question
PostPosted: Thu August 12, 2021 10:36 pm 
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I just don’t see these results having a real impact on the immediate districting battles. It’s still largely going to be a fight for the suburban vote, Andy I don’t see any shift in tactics prior to 2022.


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 Post subject: Re: The US Census / Citizenship Question
PostPosted: Thu August 12, 2021 10:40 pm 
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tragabigzanda wrote:
I just don’t see these results having a real impact on the immediate districting battles. It’s still largely going to be a fight for the suburban vote, Andy I don’t see any shift in tactics prior to 2022.


He would have loved that

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 Post subject: Re: Congress
PostPosted: Sat August 14, 2021 10:55 pm 
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I get that Democrats can't unilaterally disarm, but ugh gerrymandering is ugly. Proportional representation FTW.



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 Post subject: Re: The US Census / Citizenship Question
PostPosted: Mon August 16, 2021 11:43 pm 
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 Post subject: Re: The US Census / Citizenship Question
PostPosted: Mon August 16, 2021 11:52 pm 
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McParadigm wrote:

I am confused. Is gerrymandering a good thing or bad thing?

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 Post subject: Re: The US Census / Citizenship Question
PostPosted: Tue August 17, 2021 12:01 am 
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surfndestroy wrote:
I am confused. Is gerrymandering a good thing or bad thing?

Depends what state we're talking about.

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 Post subject: Re: The US Census / Citizenship Question
PostPosted: Tue August 17, 2021 12:53 am 
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surfndestroy wrote:
McParadigm wrote:

I am confused. Is gerrymandering a good thing or bad thing?

A bad thing. And also a “neither side will trust the other enough to deescalate” kind of thing

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 Post subject: Re: The US Census / Citizenship Question
PostPosted: Tue August 17, 2021 1:08 am 
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McParadigm wrote:
surfndestroy wrote:
McParadigm wrote:

I am confused. Is gerrymandering a good thing or bad thing?

A bad thing. And also a “neither side will trust the other enough to deescalate” kind of thing

It's a bad thing. But if this is how the game must be played, then played it shall be.


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 Post subject: Re: The US Census / Citizenship Question
PostPosted: Tue August 17, 2021 2:07 am 
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elliseamos wrote:
It's a bad thing. But if this is how the game must be played, then played it shall be.
I'm going to be very curious to see if Dem-dominated states that have independent redistricting commissions push to get rid of them for this reason. California is the most prominent in that regard.


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 Post subject: Re: The US Census / Citizenship Question
PostPosted: Tue August 17, 2021 2:10 am 
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Green Habit wrote:
elliseamos wrote:
It's a bad thing. But if this is how the game must be played, then played it shall be.
I'm going to be very curious to see if Dem-dominated states that have independent redistricting commissions push to get rid of them for this reason. California is the most prominent in that regard.

I'm sure independence has a price, GH. Soros is a wealthy man.


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 Post subject: Re: Redistricting
PostPosted: Tue August 17, 2021 2:19 am 
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I was thinking this would go better in the Congress thread, others were bumping the Census thread, so I thought I'd just move all these posts into a redistricting thread of its own.


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 Post subject: Re: Redistricting
PostPosted: Tue August 17, 2021 2:37 am 
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Never unilaterally disarm.

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 Post subject: Re: The US Census / Citizenship Question
PostPosted: Tue August 17, 2021 4:09 am 
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Green Habit wrote:
elliseamos wrote:
It's a bad thing. But if this is how the game must be played, then played it shall be.
I'm going to be very curious to see if Dem-dominated states that have independent redistricting commissions push to get rid of them for this reason. California is the most prominent in that regard.


Ah yes, California's famously independent in name if not in deed redistricting comission.

Its a relatively new creature, well after single party rule was established. Its not what it pretends to be.


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