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 Post subject: Re: Election 2020
PostPosted: Sun April 07, 2019 2:10 am 
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An enigma of a man shaped hole in the wall between reality and the soul of the devil.
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digster wrote:
Did we manage to find a candidate that absolutely no one seems to like in Howard Schultz?

yeah I dont know what world that guy is living in.


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 Post subject: Re: Election 2020
PostPosted: Mon April 08, 2019 5:53 pm 
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2000:
28% of Americans aged 18-30 say they identify as Republican or conservative
26% say they are Democrats, or liberal

2010:
29% of Americans 18-30 identify as Republican
40% say they are Democrats

2019:
30% identify as a Republican
59% identify as a Democrat


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 Post subject: Re: Election 2020
PostPosted: Mon April 08, 2019 5:59 pm 
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I put no faith in demographics, and I'm suspicious of anyone who does

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 Post subject: Re: Election 2020
PostPosted: Mon April 08, 2019 6:05 pm 
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digster wrote:
Did we manage to find a candidate that absolutely no one seems to like in Howard Schultz?
I certainly don't hate him, and I think I could find enough to like about him. But one can be likeable and also run a completely idiotic third party campaign that's unwilling to accept how the rules of the American system of government dramatically force voting into a two party system.


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 Post subject: Re: Election 2020
PostPosted: Mon April 08, 2019 6:07 pm 
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Green Habit wrote:
digster wrote:
Did we manage to find a candidate that absolutely no one seems to like in Howard Schultz?
I certainly don't hate him, and I think I could find enough to like about him. But one can be likeable and also run a completely idiotic third party campaign that's unwilling to accept how the rules of the American system of government dramatically force voting into a two party system.


Why don't you hate the man who thinks "billionaire" is a slur? What has gone wrong in your life that has led you to this point?

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 Post subject: Re: Election 2020
PostPosted: Mon April 08, 2019 6:07 pm 
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Or, in blunter terms:

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 Post subject: Re: Election 2020
PostPosted: Mon April 08, 2019 6:09 pm 
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Mickey wrote:
I put no faith in demographics, and I'm suspicious of anyone who does

oh no


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 Post subject: Re: Election 2020
PostPosted: Mon April 08, 2019 6:10 pm 
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McParadigm wrote:
2000:
28% of Americans aged 18-30 say they identify as Republican or conservative
26% say they are Democrats, or liberal

2010:
29% of Americans 18-30 identify as Republican
40% say they are Democrats

2019:
30% identify as a Republican
59% identify as a Democrat


I did a quick Google to try to find turnout rates for those age ranges vis-a-vis party affiliation, which I think would be helpful, too, but came up empty. Any ideas?

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lol


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 Post subject: Re: Election 2020
PostPosted: Mon April 08, 2019 6:13 pm 
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McParadigm wrote:
Mickey wrote:
I put no faith in demographics, and I'm suspicious of anyone who does

oh no


These categories shift and are shiftable. If the Republicans breed themselves out the Democrats will occupy the center-right neoliberal position the GOP vacated and towards which the Dems have been drifting since at least Carter, flanked by a true right-wing of frothing white nationalists and an emergent social democrat party. Which would be an improvement but does not mean the demographic ends of conservativism.

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 Post subject: Re: Election 2020
PostPosted: Mon April 08, 2019 6:22 pm 
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It's probably implausible to suggest that Millennials will always vote that left wing in the future, but they may very well shift the overall narrative to the left when they become even more dominant among voters. The GI Generation, who the Millennials are very likely to be historically similar to, did the same to the middle of the 20th century.


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 Post subject: Re: Election 2020
PostPosted: Mon April 08, 2019 6:23 pm 
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Green Habit wrote:
It's probably implausible to suggest that Millennials will always vote that left wing in the future, but they may very well shift the overall narrative to the left when they become even more dominant among voters. The GI Generation, who the Millennials are very likely to be historically similar to, did the same to the middle of the 20th century.


I don't disagree with this at all.

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 Post subject: Re: Election 2020
PostPosted: Mon April 08, 2019 6:33 pm 
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Simple Torture wrote:
McParadigm wrote:
2000:
28% of Americans aged 18-30 say they identify as Republican or conservative
26% say they are Democrats, or liberal

2010:
29% of Americans 18-30 identify as Republican
40% say they are Democrats

2019:
30% identify as a Republican
59% identify as a Democrat


I did a quick Google to try to find turnout rates for those age ranges vis-a-vis party affiliation, which I think would be helpful, too, but came up empty. Any ideas?

Turnout among young people? It’s always low.

Where this becomes a problem for Republicans (I actually took these numbers from a podcast conversation between two Republican strategists) is that these changes in affiliation are built on bigger societal demographic shifts that are likely to continue to spin ever more against them.

Each of these groups of young people is measurably less white, less religious, and more tolerant than the last. We’ve seen our last new voting group come of age that is more than 50% white, and that puts Republicans in a very bad spot. The party is trapped between the language of white grievance, which sustains them and brings out old voters, and the need to rebrand in a way that invites others in. Right now, the grievance team is running totally unrestrained.


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 Post subject: Re: Election 2020
PostPosted: Mon April 08, 2019 6:36 pm 
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Why aren't you happier?


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 Post subject: Re: Election 2020
PostPosted: Mon April 08, 2019 6:50 pm 
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McParadigm wrote:
Each of these groups of young people is measurably less white, less religious, and more tolerant than the last. We’ve seen our last new voting group come of age that is more than 50% white, and that puts Republicans in a very bad spot. The party is trapped between the language of white grievance, which sustains them and brings out old voters, and the need to rebrand in a way that invites others in. Right now, the grievance team is running totally unrestrained.
I'd be a little careful with this.

A century ago, people from southern and eastern Europe were not considered "white". It's entirely plausible that some group not considered "white" now will be in the future. Latinos are the likeliest group for this to happen with. And if there's massive immigration from another region (say, Asia or Africa), we can't count out the possibility that those who are so tolerant of those unlike them now will remain so to such a future group. Religion also tends to cycle too--see the four Great Awakenings this country's had in history.


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 Post subject: Re: Election 2020
PostPosted: Mon April 08, 2019 9:20 pm 
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 Post subject: Re: Election 2020
PostPosted: Mon April 08, 2019 9:28 pm 
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Green Habit wrote:
McParadigm wrote:
Each of these groups of young people is measurably less white, less religious, and more tolerant than the last. We’ve seen our last new voting group come of age that is more than 50% white, and that puts Republicans in a very bad spot. The party is trapped between the language of white grievance, which sustains them and brings out old voters, and the need to rebrand in a way that invites others in. Right now, the grievance team is running totally unrestrained.
I'd be a little careful with this.

A century ago, people from southern and eastern Europe were not considered "white". It's entirely plausible that some group not considered "white" now will be in the future. Latinos are the likeliest group for this to happen with. And if there's massive immigration from another region (say, Asia or Africa), we can't count out the possibility that those who are so tolerant of those unlike them now will remain so to such a future group. Religion also tends to cycle too--see the four Great Awakenings this country's had in history.


Don't think I could have said it better myself--the already-shifting category of whiteness, which will absolutely forestall if not outright prevent the whole threat of whites in the minority (though I'd say it's already happening with white latinos (eg Marco Rubio, among many others) and is very soon to happen with lighter-skinned Asians)--is a test case for how limited demographic trends can be when indexed to socially constructed categories.

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 Post subject: Re: Election 2020
PostPosted: Tue April 09, 2019 4:22 pm 
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 Post subject: Re: Election 2020
PostPosted: Wed April 10, 2019 5:49 pm 
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So it's come out that Bernie is officially a member of the millionaire's club.

Bernie Sanders wrote:
I wrote a best-selling book. If you write a best-selling book, you can be a millionaire, too.

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Clutch rules you dummy.


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 Post subject: Re: Election 2020
PostPosted: Wed April 10, 2019 10:54 pm 
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meatwad wrote:
So it's come out that Bernie is officially a member of the millionaire's club.

Bernie Sanders wrote:
I wrote a best-selling book. If you write a best-selling book, you can be a millionaire, too.
Yawn. This should not be a big deal at all.

And this is a good sign that the left needs to slow their roll on trying to establish a norm of making politicians make their tax returns public. They're going to end up disappointed.


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 Post subject: Re: Election 2020
PostPosted: Wed April 10, 2019 11:17 pm 
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Green Habit wrote:
meatwad wrote:
So it's come out that Bernie is officially a member of the millionaire's club.

Bernie Sanders wrote:
I wrote a best-selling book. If you write a best-selling book, you can be a millionaire, too.
Yawn. This should not be a big deal at all.

And this is a good sign that the left needs to slow their roll on trying to establish a norm of making politicians make their tax returns public. They're going to end up disappointed.

Wasn't that norm established through 40 years of precedent?


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