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Election 2020
http://forums.theskyiscrape.com/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=10072		 Page 29 of 555
Author:  Simple Torture [ Thu August 29, 2019 11:04 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Election 2020
Monkey_Driven wrote:
Would love to see the racial breakdown of those polled.

This PDF has a breakdown of these results starting on Page 6: https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/us/u ... xqk93.pdf/

Not sure about the sampling breakdown.
Author:  McParadigm [ Thu August 29, 2019 11:05 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Election 2020
Well, Republican Party registration is 88% white.
Author:  McParadigm [ Fri August 30, 2019 7:13 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Election 2020
This has been a Republican district since 1973
Author:  bune [ Fri August 30, 2019 10:38 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Election 2020


What are the odds on all of these guys/gals becoming lobbyists?
Author:  Bi_3 [ Fri August 30, 2019 11:19 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Election 2020
bune wrote:


What are the odds on all of these guys/gals becoming lobbyists?



Analysts on the cable channel Trump wanted when he instead was elected?
Author:  bune [ Tue September 03, 2019 8:39 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Election 2020
or that, yeah.

Author:  McParadigm [ Wed September 04, 2019 1:40 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Election 2020
Four Texas reps retiring. Four.
Author:  McParadigm [ Wed September 04, 2019 1:49 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Election 2020
Correction: Talking Points claims this is number five.
Author:  E.H. Ruddock [ Wed September 04, 2019 2:06 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Election 2020
McParadigm wrote:
Correction: Talking Points claims this is number five.

This is why I can't trust the news you post
Author:  Superblood Wolfmoon [ Wed September 04, 2019 3:30 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Election 2020
It's completely normal for so many from the incumbent president's party to retire in a re-election year though right? :arrow:
Author:  Mickey [ Wed September 04, 2019 4:03 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Election 2020
meatwad wrote:
It's completely normal for so many from the incumbent president's party to retire in a re-election year though right? :arrow:


I would love to see numbers on this. It feels odd to me, almost certain it didn't happen with Obama in 2012, but maybe I'm not remembering 2004 very well?
Author:  McParadigm [ Wed September 04, 2019 4:30 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Election 2020
Republican retirements have been ramping up slowly since hitting a low point in 2010, when the tea party surge gave them a 60+ seat jump in the House.

2010: 13 retirements, massively successful election
2012: 14
2014: 16
2016: 20, mostly in the aftermath of the Republican primary
2018: 26, mostly due to savage internal polling
2020: 12 already, with multiple Republican strategists suggesting many more announcements are coming. This is probably going to be the third straight election year with more than 20 “pure” (not running for other office) Republican retirements, which hasn’t happened in at least half a century and maybe ever.

For reference, in 2008 they had 27 retirements leading up to an election where Democrats gained 8 senate seats and 21 House seats. High retirement numbers usually mean bad internal polling for some, plus a handful of folks in safe seats retiring rather than waiting to become part of the minority party.
Author:  Mickey [ Wed September 04, 2019 9:31 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Election 2020
Is 20+ in a range of 13-27 statistically significant?
Author:  McParadigm [ Wed September 04, 2019 10:19 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Election 2020
Mickey wrote:
Is 20+ in a range of 13-27 statistically significant?

For any given 2 year period, 20 is a rare number to reach. But to put the impact of it happening 3 elections in a row into perspective, let’s assume that 6 more retirements are announced in the coming months:

1974-1978: 45 retirements
1980-1984: 32
1986-1990: 31
1992-1996: 50*
1998-2002: 45
2004-2008: 49
2010-2014: 43
2016-2020: 64


* 1992 happened to be a year with 50+ retirements total, and then a lot of swing state Rs retired in the face of Clinton scandal backlash. Those retirement numbers helped end Newt’s career.
Author:  tragabigzanda [ Wed September 04, 2019 10:26 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Election 2020
McParadigm wrote:
Mickey wrote:
Is 20+ in a range of 13-27 statistically significant?

For any given 2 year period, 20 is a rare number to reach. But to put the impact of it happening 3 elections in a row into perspective, let’s assume that 6 more retirements are announced in the coming months:

1974-1978: 45 retirements
1980-1984: 32
1986-1990: 31
1992-1996: 50*
1998-2002: 45
2004-2008: 49
2010-2014: 43
2016-2020: 64


* 1992 happened to be a year with 50+ retirements total, and then a lot of swing state Rs retired in the face of Clinton scandal backlash. Those retirement numbers helped end Newt’s career.

this was helpful, thanks McP
Author:  McParadigm [ Wed September 04, 2019 10:34 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Election 2020
Guys
Author:  tragabigzanda [ Wed September 04, 2019 10:35 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Election 2020
lol
Author:  washing machine [ Wed September 04, 2019 10:57 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Election 2020
Maybe they're just opening up the opportunity for more good, young, common sense republicans like Dan Crenshaw for the sake of the party.
Author:  Mickey [ Wed September 04, 2019 10:59 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Election 2020
tragabigzanda wrote:
McParadigm wrote:
Mickey wrote:
Is 20+ in a range of 13-27 statistically significant?

For any given 2 year period, 20 is a rare number to reach. But to put the impact of it happening 3 elections in a row into perspective, let’s assume that 6 more retirements are announced in the coming months:

1974-1978: 45 retirements
1980-1984: 32
1986-1990: 31
1992-1996: 50*
1998-2002: 45
2004-2008: 49
2010-2014: 43
2016-2020: 64


* 1992 happened to be a year with 50+ retirements total, and then a lot of swing state Rs retired in the face of Clinton scandal backlash. Those retirement numbers helped end Newt’s career.

this was helpful, thanks McP


Yeah this is really helpful contextualization.
Author:  bune [ Wed September 04, 2019 11:09 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Election 2020
washing machine wrote:
Maybe they're just opening up the opportunity for more good, young, common sense republicans like Dan Crenshaw for the sake of the party.

there's no way you typed that with a straight face.
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