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What are the odds on all of these guys/gals becoming lobbyists?
Analysts on the cable channel Trump wanted when he instead was elected?
_________________ "The fatal flaw of all revolutionaries is that they know how to tear things down but don't have a f**king clue about how to build anything."
Joined: Wed January 02, 2013 6:02 am Posts: 9712 Location: Tristes Tropiques
meatwad wrote:
It's completely normal for so many from the incumbent president's party to retire in a re-election year though right?
I would love to see numbers on this. It feels odd to me, almost certain it didn't happen with Obama in 2012, but maybe I'm not remembering 2004 very well?
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VinylGuy wrote:
its really tiresome to see these ¨good guys¨ talking about any political stuff in tv while also being kinda funny and hip and cool....its just...please enough of this shit.
Republican retirements have been ramping up slowly since hitting a low point in 2010, when the tea party surge gave them a 60+ seat jump in the House.
2010: 13 retirements, massively successful election 2012: 14 2014: 16 2016: 20, mostly in the aftermath of the Republican primary 2018: 26, mostly due to savage internal polling 2020: 12 already, with multiple Republican strategists suggesting many more announcements are coming. This is probably going to be the third straight election year with more than 20 “pure” (not running for other office) Republican retirements, which hasn’t happened in at least half a century and maybe ever.
For reference, in 2008 they had 27 retirements leading up to an election where Democrats gained 8 senate seats and 21 House seats. High retirement numbers usually mean bad internal polling for some, plus a handful of folks in safe seats retiring rather than waiting to become part of the minority party.
Joined: Wed January 02, 2013 6:02 am Posts: 9712 Location: Tristes Tropiques
Is 20+ in a range of 13-27 statistically significant?
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VinylGuy wrote:
its really tiresome to see these ¨good guys¨ talking about any political stuff in tv while also being kinda funny and hip and cool....its just...please enough of this shit.
Is 20+ in a range of 13-27 statistically significant?
For any given 2 year period, 20 is a rare number to reach. But to put the impact of it happening 3 elections in a row into perspective, let’s assume that 6 more retirements are announced in the coming months:
* 1992 happened to be a year with 50+ retirements total, and then a lot of swing state Rs retired in the face of Clinton scandal backlash. Those retirement numbers helped end Newt’s career.
Joined: Tue September 24, 2013 5:56 pm Posts: 46993 Location: In the oatmeal aisle wearing a Shellac shirt
McParadigm wrote:
Mickey wrote:
Is 20+ in a range of 13-27 statistically significant?
For any given 2 year period, 20 is a rare number to reach. But to put the impact of it happening 3 elections in a row into perspective, let’s assume that 6 more retirements are announced in the coming months:
* 1992 happened to be a year with 50+ retirements total, and then a lot of swing state Rs retired in the face of Clinton scandal backlash. Those retirement numbers helped end Newt’s career.
Joined: Wed January 02, 2013 6:02 am Posts: 9712 Location: Tristes Tropiques
tragabigzanda wrote:
McParadigm wrote:
Mickey wrote:
Is 20+ in a range of 13-27 statistically significant?
For any given 2 year period, 20 is a rare number to reach. But to put the impact of it happening 3 elections in a row into perspective, let’s assume that 6 more retirements are announced in the coming months:
* 1992 happened to be a year with 50+ retirements total, and then a lot of swing state Rs retired in the face of Clinton scandal backlash. Those retirement numbers helped end Newt’s career.
this was helpful, thanks McP
Yeah this is really helpful contextualization.
_________________
VinylGuy wrote:
its really tiresome to see these ¨good guys¨ talking about any political stuff in tv while also being kinda funny and hip and cool....its just...please enough of this shit.
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