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It’s gonna be sporadic civil wars, then more of a caste system situation, then a real pandemic, then Eloi live happily ever after while the computers move on to the rest of the universe.
Makes you wonder if it hasn’t already happened
_________________ "The fatal flaw of all revolutionaries is that they know how to tear things down but don't have a f**king clue about how to build anything."
ChatGPT being integrated into the Microsoft 365 suite
Quote:
The main feature the company will be releasing is what it calls the Microsoft 365 Copilot. It will be embedded inside its Microsoft 365 suite, and allow users, through natural-language inputs, to generate documents, presentations and original text.
A Word user will be able to highlight a paragraph and the AI can offer different options for a rewritten version of it. The technology can create a PowerPoint presentation based on the text from a document, the company said. It could, for example, take an essay about the French Revolution and turn it into a presentation with multiple slides and images.
Inside Excel, the spreadsheet tool, Copilot can help users analyze sales data, determine trends and create charts without becoming Excel experts.
Microsoft has also built an AI-powered tool called Business Chat which works across Microsoft 365 and can do things like summarizing multiple emails, creating transcripts from conversations on Microsoft Teams and highlighting the times a specific topic came up in meetings.
We had some internal demos last week using AI tools and for the first time I’m now more than sure than not there will be a second civil war in our lifetime. Total wipe out of remaining middle class white collar jobs in the next 20 years. teachers and nurses will still be around, jobs the require face to face emotional connections, but more like therapists than what they are today which means most will opt for unemployed family members to do the work.
_________________ "The fatal flaw of all revolutionaries is that they know how to tear things down but don't have a f**king clue about how to build anything."
We had some internal demos last week using AI tools and for the first time I’m now more than sure than not there will be a second civil war in our lifetime. Total wipe out of remaining middle class white collar jobs in the next 20 years. teachers and nurses will still be around, jobs the require face to face emotional connections, but more like therapists than what they are today which means most will opt for unemployed family members to do the work.
Sounds like we might be able to go back to five days of school a week!
Joined: Tue September 24, 2013 5:56 pm Posts: 47165 Location: In the oatmeal aisle wearing a Shellac shirt
Speaking strictly from an American perspective, I think you’re A) overestimating the impacts of automation as it bumps up against B) population decline. More likely, there will be a certain demographic — anyone in college now, recently graduated, or headed there soon — that gets lost in the shuffle, but long-term we’ll see a continued increase in employment in A) knowledge work (four-year degrees+) and B) trades.
The pain points will (continue to be) most acutely felt in the historically supportive/underpaid roles: hospitality/service, teaching, nursing.
The people who are going to be crying “the robots took our jobs!” are the same ones who probably lack access to capital and good education opportunities. It’ll be a wide swath, for sure. But taking the 10K foot view, there will be plenty of demand for them in knowledge and trades, and we’ll see educational orgs get the message and create more of these accelerated and flexible degree/certification programs (i.e. “get a plumber’s license from home in 18 months.”). I’m confident in this because I’m already seeing legislation move towards these changes here, and supportive capital and IP coming from Silicon Valley.
The cost of automating physical activities seems to be much higher than implementing AI to replace email/ remote work jobs. Investments in robotics have been dropping off a bit as the hoped for ROI hasn't been realized for many applications.
Joined: Tue September 24, 2013 5:56 pm Posts: 47165 Location: In the oatmeal aisle wearing a Shellac shirt
simple schoolboy wrote:
The cost of automating physical activities seems to be much higher than implementing AI to replace email/ remote work jobs. Investments in robotics have been dropping off a bit as the hoped for ROI hasn't been realized for many applications.
Sure, but those jobs aren’t going to pay anywhere near what the do today when there are 10 million more people competing for them. And the shift won’t be in automating what is done today, it will be on the backend with more and larger prefabbed pieces that will simplify last mile work.
_________________ "The fatal flaw of all revolutionaries is that they know how to tear things down but don't have a f**king clue about how to build anything."
The cost of automating physical activities seems to be much higher than implementing AI to replace email/ remote work jobs. Investments in robotics have been dropping off a bit as the hoped for ROI hasn't been realized for many applications.
Yep
This is a statement about current state. Whether it remains true tomorrow is uncertain. Half of the innovation impact of a new technology occurs in the application phase, as companies hunt down every possible way they can use the new thing to their financial advantage.
I think it’s uncontroversial to say that companies like Amazon are already fantasizing about a world where your entire order is automated, front to back.
The cost of automating physical activities seems to be much higher than implementing AI to replace email/ remote work jobs. Investments in robotics have been dropping off a bit as the hoped for ROI hasn't been realized for many applications.
Yep
This is a statement about current state. Whether it remains true tomorrow is uncertain. Half of the innovation impact of a new technology occurs in the application phase, as companies hunt down every possible way they can use the new thing to their financial advantage.
I think it’s uncontroversial to say that companies like Amazon are already fantasizing about a world where your entire order is automated, front to back.
Good post. Historically the thought was that manual labor would be automated, but hardware is much more difficult than software, so now the tooling is being applied to the labor cost problem from the opposite direction and I don’t think the masses have realized what that means for them and their loved ones.
From this perspective dense 15 minute cities make much sense.
_________________ "The fatal flaw of all revolutionaries is that they know how to tear things down but don't have a f**king clue about how to build anything."
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