I've made a handful of recent posts about the views contained in this terrific book:



Remarkably prescient, there have been a number of recent headlines that were explicitly foretold by Zeihan, including the US investing resources into the naval capacity of Japan and the rest of the Pacific islands, and last week's news that China's death rate has officially surpassed its birth rate.

Realizing I'm now the guy who read one book and considers himself an expert on the subject, I think this thread is going to get a lot of traction in time...

Zeihan also has offered implications for today's massive earthquake in Turkey and Syria. In a nutshell, Turkey is at a massive geographic advantage vis-a-vis trade routes, supply chains, and importantly, oil refining and distribution. Unlike the rest of the Middle East, they've made big strides to engage industry experts in the refining process, positioning themselves as a critical lynchpin in Eurasia's energy future.

Will the US come to Turkey's aid? Will Biden leverage any potential support to further isolate Syria and/or China/Russia?

If you thought two Gulf wars were fun, just wait for the next 20 years in energy geopolitics!

Are you saying Turkey needs a little freedom?

I think Turkey is, perhaps counterintuitively, poised to become the Silicon Valley of the Middle East

Peter Zeihan is one of those guys that I can't figure out how much weight to give to his positions. Seems way too optimistic about the US, way too pessimistic about China. Those that closely follow China seem especially critical of him.

I don't think he'll be right about everything -- but as a working model of where we are headed, I think his is the most grounded I've come across. What specifically is it about his views on China that others push back on? Dexter Roberts is also pessimistic about China, and he seems like a pretty qualified guy.

Mainly that China has more runway than Zeihan credits them. Some level of economic decline is coming, but there's not going to be a total collapse within the next decade. Doesn't Zeihan say the game is up for China by 2030 or so?

He basically says that by 2030, their current model will be completely unsustainable. I think even he was surprised at how soon the deathrate news came to pass -- I think he was seeing that as happening around 2030. Like me, he's probably interested to see what sorts of new capital controls they start implementing. LOTS of Chinese money in my neck of the woods...

Wouldn't we expect crypto to be higher if capital controls were imminent?

i think that's a fairly conservative view of crypto. that shit is like a circus in eight different languages.

Please take this to The Weight Loss thread in Sports.

What the fuck has Mac Jones ever won that’s worthy of a victory cigar?

He read this book, bammer.

I do not understand the mac Jones reference.

He's made some pretty recent claims about Russian Nat Gas/ Oil well heads/pipes freezing up due to condensate. Might be specific enough to be falsifiable.

Also covered by Zeihan!

Shit, sorry, this referred to Zeihan, not whoever Mac Jones is. I am also at a loss there.

Ah. Yeah, I hadn’t seen those recent claims but in the book he discusses the inherent difficulties in piping oil/NG through thousands of miles of sub-zero temps.

Yeah, he seems to claim too much niche knowledge in too many domains. And then he turns around and gives paid speeches at obscure state schools. He's somewhere on the under appreciated polymath to talking out of his ass spectrum is all I can figure.

That his outlook generally flatters his audience might indicate which way his bias operates.