Thu July 06, 2017 3:28 pm
@SkitchP wrote:Im more on the Scherzer is getting in train now. If he keeps this year up? Yeah.
Thu July 06, 2017 3:31 pm
cutuphalfdead wrote:@SkitchP wrote:Im more on the Scherzer is getting in train now. If he keeps this year up? Yeah.
welcome to reality
Wed July 12, 2017 5:51 pm
Wed July 12, 2017 6:48 pm
philpritchard wrote:I still don't think you can induct someone into the Hall of Fame based solely on peak when it's not Sandy Koufax-level insane. There should be at least some kind of standard of longevity.
Wed July 12, 2017 7:14 pm
@SkitchP wrote:philpritchard wrote:I still don't think you can induct someone into the Hall of Fame based solely on peak when it's not Sandy Koufax-level insane. There should be at least some kind of standard of longevity.
Hall of Fame Statistics
Black Ink
Pitching - 39 (42), Average HOFer ≈ 40
Gray Ink
Pitching - 133 (133), Average HOFer ≈ 185
Hall of Fame Monitor
Pitching - 92 (115), Likely HOFer ≈ 100
Hall of Fame Standards
Pitching - 38 (84), Average HOFer ≈ 50
from Baseball reference... he's getting really close on a lot of those numbers.
Thu July 13, 2017 12:17 am
philpritchard wrote:@SkitchP wrote:philpritchard wrote:I still don't think you can induct someone into the Hall of Fame based solely on peak when it's not Sandy Koufax-level insane. There should be at least some kind of standard of longevity.
Hall of Fame Statistics
Black Ink
Pitching - 39 (42), Average HOFer ≈ 40
Gray Ink
Pitching - 133 (133), Average HOFer ≈ 185
Hall of Fame Monitor
Pitching - 92 (115), Likely HOFer ≈ 100
Hall of Fame Standards
Pitching - 38 (84), Average HOFer ≈ 50
from Baseball reference... he's getting really close on a lot of those numbers.
For sure. And "really close" is why I still don't think he's in the "if he retired today..." group. He's "really close".
His case is entirely (like... entirely) built around his seven year peak. And his peak is amazing! But included in that seven year peak is a 3.3 WAR season (meh), and his 8th best is 1.3 WAR.
Another season or two at this level makes him pretty much a slam dunk. Even if he drops off drastically, a handful of seasons of being a league average pitcher probably does it. But if he retired right now, he's not quite there.
Now... Clayton Kershaw. There's someone whose peak is insane enough at this point that he's probably in regardless.
Thu July 13, 2017 5:01 am
Thu July 13, 2017 11:44 am
Thu July 13, 2017 4:45 pm
philpritchard wrote:He's not as close as Scherzer, but he has a much stronger case than Morris.
Morris was a good pitcher. For a few years, he was even a very good pitcher! But there's no way in hell he was a Hall of Famer, especially when a superior contemporary in Dave Steib was off the ballot after one year.
Kevin Brown and Mike Mussina getting completely ignored is a travesty. I would include Schilling there, but... I get it.
Thu July 13, 2017 7:13 pm
Thu July 13, 2017 7:23 pm
Thu July 13, 2017 8:03 pm
MattA75 wrote:philpritchard wrote:He's not as close as Scherzer, but he has a much stronger case than Morris.
Morris was a good pitcher. For a few years, he was even a very good pitcher! But there's no way in hell he was a Hall of Famer, especially when a superior contemporary in Dave Steib was off the ballot after one year.
Kevin Brown and Mike Mussina getting completely ignored is a travesty. I would include Schilling there, but... I get it.
Kevin Brown being completely ignored is one of the few things baseball writers have gotten right with the HOF
Fri July 14, 2017 12:35 am
philpritchard wrote:MattA75 wrote:philpritchard wrote:He's not as close as Scherzer, but he has a much stronger case than Morris.
Morris was a good pitcher. For a few years, he was even a very good pitcher! But there's no way in hell he was a Hall of Famer, especially when a superior contemporary in Dave Steib was off the ballot after one year.
Kevin Brown and Mike Mussina getting completely ignored is a travesty. I would include Schilling there, but... I get it.
Kevin Brown being completely ignored is one of the few things baseball writers have gotten right with the HOF
How? He was one of the most dominant pitchers of his era and had one of the best pitching careers of all time.
Fri July 14, 2017 2:14 am
Fri July 14, 2017 5:32 am
philpritchard wrote:MattA75 wrote:philpritchard wrote:He's not as close as Scherzer, but he has a much stronger case than Morris.
Morris was a good pitcher. For a few years, he was even a very good pitcher! But there's no way in hell he was a Hall of Famer, especially when a superior contemporary in Dave Steib was off the ballot after one year.
Kevin Brown and Mike Mussina getting completely ignored is a travesty. I would include Schilling there, but... I get it.
Kevin Brown being completely ignored is one of the few things baseball writers have gotten right with the HOF
How? He was one of the most dominant pitchers of his era and had one of the best pitching careers of all time.
Fri July 14, 2017 6:51 am
Fri July 14, 2017 11:14 pm
philpritchard wrote:If you look exclusively at those baseball card stats, then sure, Brown and Tiant look pretty similar. But then you consider that Tiant managed his 3.30 career ERA in the '60s and '70s and Brown managed his 3.28 ERA in the most absurdly offensive era in baseball history and it should become pretty easy to understand why Tiant's 54.8 WAR is absolutely dwarfed by Brown's 76.5.
That WAR total, by the way, is 24th all-time. It's just a couple behind John Smoltz and it's ten more than Tom Glavine. He's not in Pedro/Clemens/Johnson/Maddux territory because those are inner-circle Hall of Famers, but he had an amazing career and a 10+ year peak that makes Scherzer's peak look like a mid-rotation starter.
It seems like you're giving a lot of weight to a shitty 10 inning playoff stretch when he was 39 years old.
Sat July 15, 2017 3:38 am
MattA75 wrote:philpritchard wrote:If you look exclusively at those baseball card stats, then sure, Brown and Tiant look pretty similar. But then you consider that Tiant managed his 3.30 career ERA in the '60s and '70s and Brown managed his 3.28 ERA in the most absurdly offensive era in baseball history and it should become pretty easy to understand why Tiant's 54.8 WAR is absolutely dwarfed by Brown's 76.5.
That WAR total, by the way, is 24th all-time. It's just a couple behind John Smoltz and it's ten more than Tom Glavine. He's not in Pedro/Clemens/Johnson/Maddux territory because those are inner-circle Hall of Famers, but he had an amazing career and a 10+ year peak that makes Scherzer's peak look like a mid-rotation starter.
It seems like you're giving a lot of weight to a shitty 10 inning playoff stretch when he was 39 years old.
Baseball Reference has Glavine at an 81.5 WAR, and Brown at 68.3,...they have Tiant at 66.7 FWIW, but you do raise a good point about the different eras
To be honest, I always thought Kevin Brown was kind of a dink...that perception probably has more to do with my feelings on him than any postseason performance...to me he's more like a better David Cone (again, not a knock)
Sat July 15, 2017 11:11 pm
Sat July 15, 2017 11:28 pm