Will he be a Hall of Famer?

[Norris]

Im more on the Scherzer is getting in train now. If he keeps this year up? Yeah.

welcome to reality

[@SkitchP]

Im more on the Scherzer is getting in train now. If he keeps this year up? Yeah.

welcome to reality

um, i was the one saying it chud.

[philpritchard]

I still don't think you can induct someone into the Hall of Fame based solely on peak when it's not Sandy Koufax-level insane. There should be at least some kind of standard of longevity.

[@SkitchP]

I still don't think you can induct someone into the Hall of Fame based solely on peak when it's not Sandy Koufax-level insane. There should be at least some kind of standard of longevity.

Hall of Fame Statistics
Black Ink
Pitching - 39 (42), Average HOFer ≈ 40
Gray Ink
Pitching - 133 (133), Average HOFer ≈ 185
Hall of Fame Monitor
Pitching - 92 (115), Likely HOFer ≈ 100
Hall of Fame Standards
Pitching - 38 (84), Average HOFer ≈ 50

from Baseball reference... he's getting really close on a lot of those numbers.

[philpritchard]

I still don't think you can induct someone into the Hall of Fame based solely on peak when it's not Sandy Koufax-level insane. There should be at least some kind of standard of longevity.

Hall of Fame Statistics
Black Ink
Pitching - 39 (42), Average HOFer ≈ 40
Gray Ink
Pitching - 133 (133), Average HOFer ≈ 185
Hall of Fame Monitor
Pitching - 92 (115), Likely HOFer ≈ 100
Hall of Fame Standards
Pitching - 38 (84), Average HOFer ≈ 50

from Baseball reference... he's getting really close on a lot of those numbers.

For sure. And "really close" is why I still don't think he's in the "if he retired today..." group. He's "really close".

His case is entirely (like... entirely) built around his seven year peak. And his peak is amazing! But included in that seven year peak is a 3.3 WAR season (meh), and his 8th best is 1.3 WAR.

Another season or two at this level makes him pretty much a slam dunk. Even if he drops off drastically, a handful of seasons of being a league average pitcher probably does it. But if he retired right now, he's not quite there.

Now... Clayton Kershaw. There's someone whose peak is insane enough at this point that he's probably in regardless.

[MadTIGERmaN]

I still don't think you can induct someone into the Hall of Fame based solely on peak when it's not Sandy Koufax-level insane. There should be at least some kind of standard of longevity.

Hall of Fame Statistics
Black Ink
Pitching - 39 (42), Average HOFer ≈ 40
Gray Ink
Pitching - 133 (133), Average HOFer ≈ 185
Hall of Fame Monitor
Pitching - 92 (115), Likely HOFer ≈ 100
Hall of Fame Standards
Pitching - 38 (84), Average HOFer ≈ 50

from Baseball reference... he's getting really close on a lot of those numbers.

For sure. And "really close" is why I still don't think he's in the "if he retired today..." group. He's "really close".

His case is entirely (like... entirely) built around his seven year peak. And his peak is amazing! But included in that seven year peak is a 3.3 WAR season (meh), and his 8th best is 1.3 WAR.

Another season or two at this level makes him pretty much a slam dunk. Even if he drops off drastically, a handful of seasons of being a league average pitcher probably does it. But if he retired right now, he's not quite there.

Now... Clayton Kershaw. There's someone whose peak is insane enough at this point that he's probably in regardless.

What do you guys think on Greinke? I feel like if he would have got that 2nd Cy Young 2 years ago when Arrieta and him had the unbelievable seasons hed be right on the door of the HoF, but without that 2nd Cy Young, hes going to be just on the outside.

Hall of Fame Statistics

Black Ink
  Pitching - 14 (167), Average HOFer ≈ 40
Gray Ink
  Pitching - 137 (123), Average HOFer ≈ 185
Hall of Fame Monitor
  Pitching - 80 (147), Likely HOFer ≈ 100
Hall of Fame Standards
  Pitching - 37 (91), Average HOFer ≈ 50

[PHATJ]

Greinke feels a lot like Jack Morris to me, but he doesn't have the championships that Jack has, or the signature game seven, 10 inning, complete game shutout. And Morris isn't in. I think Zack still has quite a bit of work left to do.

[philpritchard]

He's not as close as Scherzer, but he has a much stronger case than Morris.

Morris was a good pitcher. For a few years, he was even a very good pitcher! But there's no way in hell he was a Hall of Famer, especially when a superior contemporary in Dave Steib was off the ballot after one year.

Kevin Brown and Mike Mussina getting completely ignored is a travesty. I would include Schilling there, but... I get it.

[MattA75]

He's not as close as Scherzer, but he has a much stronger case than Morris.

Morris was a good pitcher. For a few years, he was even a very good pitcher! But there's no way in hell he was a Hall of Famer, especially when a superior contemporary in Dave Steib was off the ballot after one year.

Kevin Brown and Mike Mussina getting completely ignored is a travesty. I would include Schilling there, but... I get it.

Kevin Brown being completely ignored is one of the few things baseball writers have gotten right with the HOF

[Norris]

Mussina should be in.

[lennytheweedwhacker]

altuve

[philpritchard]

He's not as close as Scherzer, but he has a much stronger case than Morris.

Morris was a good pitcher. For a few years, he was even a very good pitcher! But there's no way in hell he was a Hall of Famer, especially when a superior contemporary in Dave Steib was off the ballot after one year.

Kevin Brown and Mike Mussina getting completely ignored is a travesty. I would include Schilling there, but... I get it.

Kevin Brown being completely ignored is one of the few things baseball writers have gotten right with the HOF

How? He was one of the most dominant pitchers of his era and had one of the best pitching careers of all time.

[MadTIGERmaN]

He's not as close as Scherzer, but he has a much stronger case than Morris.

Morris was a good pitcher. For a few years, he was even a very good pitcher! But there's no way in hell he was a Hall of Famer, especially when a superior contemporary in Dave Steib was off the ballot after one year.

Kevin Brown and Mike Mussina getting completely ignored is a travesty. I would include Schilling there, but... I get it.

Kevin Brown being completely ignored is one of the few things baseball writers have gotten right with the HOF

How? He was one of the most dominant pitchers of his era and had one of the best pitching careers of all time.

Kevin Brown
Black Ink
  Pitching - 19 (112), Average HOFer ≈ 40
Gray Ink
  Pitching - 166 (78), Average HOFer ≈ 185
Hall of Fame Monitor
  Pitching - 93 (113), Likely HOFer ≈ 100
Hall of Fame Standards
  Pitching - 41 (71), Average HOFer ≈ 50

He definitely has some great seasons sprinkled in there. But I don't even remember him pitching for Baltimore, SD, or NYY.

I love Mike Mussina, but nothing jumps off his baseball card at you that says Hall of Famer.

Looking at Greinkie, similar pitchers are -
Roy Oswalt, Jared Weaver, Felix Hernandez, Justin Verlander, Cliff Lee.
I think Greinke and Felix need another Cy Young season to knock on the door.

[philpritchard]

"Baseball card stats" should be a secondary consideration because they tell you very little about the quality of a player.

Mussina and Brown were both outstanding pitchers who were overlooked and underrated in their time because advanced stats weren't yet widely used. They're a lot like Bert Blyleven, and basically the anti-Morris.

[MattA75]

He's not as close as Scherzer, but he has a much stronger case than Morris.

Morris was a good pitcher. For a few years, he was even a very good pitcher! But there's no way in hell he was a Hall of Famer, especially when a superior contemporary in Dave Steib was off the ballot after one year.

Kevin Brown and Mike Mussina getting completely ignored is a travesty. I would include Schilling there, but... I get it.

Kevin Brown being completely ignored is one of the few things baseball writers have gotten right with the HOF

How? He was one of the most dominant pitchers of his era and had one of the best pitching careers of all time.

Of his era? So he's up there with Glavine/Maddux/Pedro/Randy Johnson/Clemens? Surely you jest...if I put Kevin Brown's name in there it quickly becomes the old Sesame Street "one of these things is not like the other"

He's essentially Luis Tiant...that's not a knock, Tiant was very good...but no one would say he had one of the best pitching careers of all time, and no one outside of the biggest Red Sox nutswingers would ever suggest Tiant is HOF worthy

but I'll always love Kevin Brown for the way he utterly puked all over himself in game 7 of the 2004 ALCS

[philpritchard]

If you look exclusively at those baseball card stats, then sure, Brown and Tiant look pretty similar. But then you consider that Tiant managed his 3.30 career ERA in the '60s and '70s and Brown managed his 3.28 ERA in the most absurdly offensive era in baseball history and it should become pretty easy to understand why Tiant's 54.8 WAR is absolutely dwarfed by Brown's 76.5.

That WAR total, by the way, is 24th all-time. It's just a couple behind John Smoltz and it's ten more than Tom Glavine. He's not in Pedro/Clemens/Johnson/Maddux territory because those are inner-circle Hall of Famers, but he had an amazing career and a 10+ year peak that makes Scherzer's peak look like a mid-rotation starter.

It seems like you're giving a lot of weight to a shitty 10 inning playoff stretch when he was 39 years old.

[MattA75]

If you look exclusively at those baseball card stats, then sure, Brown and Tiant look pretty similar. But then you consider that Tiant managed his 3.30 career ERA in the '60s and '70s and Brown managed his 3.28 ERA in the most absurdly offensive era in baseball history and it should become pretty easy to understand why Tiant's 54.8 WAR is absolutely dwarfed by Brown's 76.5.

That WAR total, by the way, is 24th all-time. It's just a couple behind John Smoltz and it's ten more than Tom Glavine. He's not in Pedro/Clemens/Johnson/Maddux territory because those are inner-circle Hall of Famers, but he had an amazing career and a 10+ year peak that makes Scherzer's peak look like a mid-rotation starter.

It seems like you're giving a lot of weight to a shitty 10 inning playoff stretch when he was 39 years old.

Baseball Reference has Glavine at an 81.5 WAR, and Brown at 68.3,...they have Tiant at 66.7 FWIW, but you do raise a good point about the different eras

To be honest, I always thought Kevin Brown was kind of a dink...that perception probably has more to do with my feelings on him than any postseason performance...to me he's more like a better David Cone (again, not a knock)

[philpritchard]

If you look exclusively at those baseball card stats, then sure, Brown and Tiant look pretty similar. But then you consider that Tiant managed his 3.30 career ERA in the '60s and '70s and Brown managed his 3.28 ERA in the most absurdly offensive era in baseball history and it should become pretty easy to understand why Tiant's 54.8 WAR is absolutely dwarfed by Brown's 76.5.

That WAR total, by the way, is 24th all-time. It's just a couple behind John Smoltz and it's ten more than Tom Glavine. He's not in Pedro/Clemens/Johnson/Maddux territory because those are inner-circle Hall of Famers, but he had an amazing career and a 10+ year peak that makes Scherzer's peak look like a mid-rotation starter.

It seems like you're giving a lot of weight to a shitty 10 inning playoff stretch when he was 39 years old.

Baseball Reference has Glavine at an 81.5 WAR, and Brown at 68.3,...they have Tiant at 66.7 FWIW, but you do raise a good point about the different eras

To be honest, I always thought Kevin Brown was kind of a dink...that perception probably has more to do with my feelings on him than any postseason performance...to me he's more like a better David Cone (again, not a knock)

I generally use Fangraphs, so that's where that discrepancy comes in, but 68.3 WAR is, at absolute worst, a borderline Hall of Famer. More likely, it's a pretty clear Hall of Famer. The two semi-recent pitchers directly above him on the B-R leaderboard are Smoltz and Jim Palmer. The two below him are Don Sutton and Don Drysdale. He belongs in that company, and no one would question where the other four belong in the Hall.

As for the perception that he's "kind of a dink"... I have no idea what that's based on or why you feel that way, but I don't see how that's relevant to his case. I don't think a player's personality should be part of the consideration except for the most extreme cases.

[MadTIGERmaN]

So we were talking about this last night, and were trying to come up with a list of locks for the HoF currently playing.

Ichiro, Pujols, Miggy, Beltre and Kershaw (who technically still has to play one more season to even be eligible) are really the only locks we could come up with that we all agreed on.

A bunch of other names were mentioned, Yadi Molina, Greinke, King Felix, Verlander, Scherzer, Cano, Trout (its too early), Pedrioa, Votto.. But all of them need either another big award season / or to up the counting stats. Scherzer is probably the closest to being a lock.

Anyone else? besides the 5 we all agreed on, that you all would say are already locks?

[philpritchard]

Trout is about as close as anyone.