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Joined: Wed January 02, 2013 2:02 am Posts: 15145 Location: Gigatown
cutuphalfdead wrote:
philpritchard wrote:
cutuphalfdead wrote:
Max Scherzer
As of right now, he's an easy no. But he's got a hell of a peak under his belt and at this point probably just needs to do some compiling for a bunch of years.
If he keeps this going for another 2 or 3 years beyond this season, he's got that 7 year peak that everyone likes in a HoFer. I think he's closer than you're giving him credit for.
Joined: Wed January 02, 2013 7:12 am Posts: 1642 Location: The Jungle
PHATJ wrote:
cutuphalfdead wrote:
philpritchard wrote:
cutuphalfdead wrote:
Max Scherzer
As of right now, he's an easy no. But he's got a hell of a peak under his belt and at this point probably just needs to do some compiling for a bunch of years.
If he keeps this going for another 2 or 3 years beyond this season, he's got that 7 year peak that everyone likes in a HoFer. I think he's closer than you're giving him credit for.
Agree with chud.
Shin-Soo Choo... when facing Max Scherzer. career batting average of .571 against Max
The part about him being an "easy no" was in an "if he retires today" sense. I actually agree... a couple more years the way he's pitching now would probably do it. That, plus a few lesser years to wind down his career and hit some counting stat milestones, likely gets him in the 60-WAR range, too.
The part about him being an "easy no" was in an "if he retires today" sense. I actually agree... a couple more years the way he's pitching now would probably do it. That, plus a few lesser years to wind down his career and hit some counting stat milestones, likely gets him in the 60-WAR range, too.
Honestly, if he were to hang it up now for an injury or other tragedy? I think he'd be in, In large part because his dominance satisfies the old guard:
2 Cy Youngs (one in both leagues) and 2 other top 5's 5 consecutive All Star Appearances (assuming this year) 2 No Hitters a 20 Strike Out Game 3 times wins leader
and the new k/9, WAR, etc.
assuming he stays healthy, he just needs to be "very good" for 2-3 more years to get the counting stats up.
I honestly think the more interesting case could be... ~gasp~ Rick Porcello. This is only assuming he cobbles together another dumb luck fucking season like he had last year. Rick Porcello is still, somehow, only 28 years old and realistically could have seven more season of Inning Eating Counting stats with a good offense and high payroll behind him... if he gets another CYA and retires before the old BBWAA guys are gone...
The part about him being an "easy no" was in an "if he retires today" sense. I actually agree... a couple more years the way he's pitching now would probably do it. That, plus a few lesser years to wind down his career and hit some counting stat milestones, likely gets him in the 60-WAR range, too.
Honestly, if he were to hang it up now for an injury or other tragedy? I think he'd be in, In large part because his dominance satisfies the old guard:
2 Cy Youngs (one in both leagues) and 2 other top 5's 5 consecutive All Star Appearances (assuming this year) 2 No Hitters a 20 Strike Out Game 3 times wins leader
and the new k/9, WAR, etc.
By WAR, he's just ahead of Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter, and behind guys like Derek Lowe, AJ Burnett, and John Lackey. As far as peak, he's basically where Jake Peavy was at the same age.
The best straight up comparison I can think of is Johan Santana. Santana probably would have needed a couple more excellent seasons or a bunch of solid ones to get his numbers (both traditional counting stats and WAR) to where he would have been a Hall of Famer.
@SkitchP wrote:
assuming he stays healthy, he just needs to be "very good" for 2-3 more years to get the counting stats up.
That's basically what I'm saying. From an advanced stats perspective, you probably need at least 50 WAR to be in the conversation. He's at 40 right now. A couple more high-end seasons gets him there, then some late-career stat-padding during his decline gets him around 60 and "no brainer" territory.
@SkitchP wrote:
I honestly think the more interesting case could be... ~gasp~ Rick Porcello. This is only assuming he cobbles together another dumb luck fucking season like he had last year. Rick Porcello is still, somehow, only 28 years old and realistically could have seven more season of Inning Eating Counting stats with a good offense and high payroll behind him... if he gets another CYA and retires before the old BBWAA guys are gone...
By WAR, he's just ahead of Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter, and behind guys like Derek Lowe, AJ Burnett, and John Lackey. As far as peak, he's basically where Jake Peavy was at the same age.
The best straight up comparison I can think of is Johan Santana. Santana probably would have needed a couple more excellent seasons or a bunch of solid ones to get his numbers (both traditional counting stats and WAR) to where he would have been a Hall of Famer.
I agree with the Santana comparison, but lets say he died tragically instead of just needing Tommy John... You dont think he might have gotten in? I think its possible.
And as it stands now, Max is on pace for a 300K, 7.8 WAR season and probably approaching 20 wins again... which could mean a 3rd Cy Young in what, 5 years? If he wins a third Cy Young, outside of PEDs or Pedophilia he's pretty much a lock.
Im not saying I agree with it, but when Rick Porcello retires in 10 years with more wins than Verlander, Kershaw, Scherzer or Price and a Cy Young under his belt.. He'll stay on the ballot for all 10 years I bet.
Joined: Tue January 01, 2013 9:55 pm Posts: 13819 Location: An office full of assholes
@SkitchP wrote:
cutuphalfdead wrote:
philpritchard wrote:
Haha
Im not saying I agree with it, but when Rick Porcello retires in 10 years with more wins than Verlander, Kershaw, Scherzer or Price and a Cy Young under his belt.. He'll stay on the ballot for all 10 years I bet.
hopefully in 15 years guys that still value pitcher wins won't be voting for the HOF
Im not saying I agree with it, but when Rick Porcello retires in 10 years with more wins than Verlander, Kershaw, Scherzer or Price and a Cy Young under his belt.. He'll stay on the ballot for all 10 years I bet.
hopefully in 15 years guys that still value pitcher wins won't be voting for the HOF
I agree with the Santana comparison, but lets say he died tragically instead of just needing Tommy John... You dont think he might have gotten in? I think its possible.
I think he still had a fairly long way to go.
How many seasons does each pitcher have where you would call him "really good"? For Scherzer, I count six, maybe seven, in which he was a significantly above average pitcher. Like I said, the peak is there already, but if you think Scherzer is worthy right now, then I don't think you're putting enough emphasis on career length.
And, oddly enough, I tend to put far more stock in peak over longevity. But Scherzer needs more of the latter. It's not like he has a Pedro/Koufax level peak.
@SkitchP wrote:
And as it stands now, Max is on pace for a 300K, 7.8 WAR season and probably approaching 20 wins again... which could mean a 3rd Cy Young in what, 5 years? If he wins a third Cy Young, outside of PEDs or Pedophilia he's pretty much a lock.
Only 9 guys have 3 or more.
And if he ends up doing that then I'll change my "needs two or three more really good years" to "needs another really good year and/or a bunch decent innings".
It's always a little unfair to compare a bunch of guys' full careers to a guy in the middle of his career who hasn't been hit with decline yet, but yeah.
Similar to Scherzer, I think Votto already has the necessary peak and just needs to compile a little bit.
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