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If Bama doesn't get complacent, I don't think there's anyone that can touch them this year. Tua is that good. Their backups can beat most teams this year.
I'm not sure what the spread would have to be for someone to take Georgia in the SEC title game, but I don't think I'd get in under about +25. +30 would be safer and even then I'd probably still take Bama.
Georgia's defense is not in the same hemisphere as LSU. Clemson has the talent, but I don't think they would put up much of a game either.
If Bama doesn't get complacent, I don't think there's anyone that can touch them this year. Tua is that good. Their backups can beat most teams this year.
I'm not sure what the spread would have to be for someone to take Georgia in the SEC title game, but I don't think I'd get in under about +25. +30 would be safer and even then I'd probably still take Bama.
Georgia's defense is not in the same hemisphere as LSU. Clemson has the talent, but I don't think they would put up much of a game either.
You're not far off, according to the guy that writes One Foot Inbounds on FO:
Quote:
We need to talk about Alabama. Yes, this was a week where nine ranked teams lost, but it's high time that we discuss what's happening in Tuscaloosa.
Alabama played their toughest test of the season against LSU -- a matchup of the first- and third-ranked teams in the College Football Playoff standings -- and managed to shut them out 29-0. It was tied for their best performance to date, with an S&P+ postgame win expectancy of 100 percent, a +42.5 adjusted scoring margin, and a 97 percent performance overall.
The scary thing here is that Alabama did that against LSU, which has by far the best secondary the Crimson Tide have seen this season, making Tua Tagovailoa look at least a little mortal. Tagovailoa completed 60 percent of his passes for just 6.7 yards per attempt (including sacks), including just a 47 percent completion rate on passing downs, and he threw his first interception of the year. So the Tide running backs, Damien Harris and Najee Harris, stepped up: 25 rush attempts, 190 yards, 63 and 83 percent success rates, and 5.3 and 11.2 highlight yards per opportunity, respectively. Both were the top running backs in their respective recruiting classes, if you needed a reminder (which is fair; Tagovailoa and the passing game have somehow overshadowed the fourth-ranked S&P+ rushing attack).
But even with just a "really good" performance from Tagovailoa, the Tide had a 21 percent success rate margin over LSU, holding the Tigers to just 26 percent for the game. It was really a vintage Tide defensive performance, with LSU getting just a 13 percent rushing success rate and 19 (!) total rushing yards from its running backs on 13 carries. For comparison, Georgia allowed LSU's two backs to run for 209 yards on 35 carries.
To show just how dominant Alabama looks, Alabama will face the 11th- and 15th-ranked S&P+ teams over the next three weeks (Mississippi State and Auburn), but is projected as 17.8- and 20.4-point S&P+ favorites anyway. It's fair to question whether anyone in the country has above a 30 percent shot or so to knock off the Tide.
Joined: Tue January 01, 2013 6:03 pm Posts: 9359 Location: Washington State
I would have been happier with a blowout, I could then say "look, they fall apart in the last three games of the season every fucking year" but to come that close hurts.
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