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 Post subject: Re: OFFICIAL RM CENSUS -- Results are in!
PostPosted: Sat April 22, 2017 12:54 pm 
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The worst
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so was I. It was a sophie's choice of a post

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*Led Zeppelin Mega Tournament: Click here*


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 Post subject: Re: OFFICIAL RM CENSUS -- Results are in!
PostPosted: Sat April 22, 2017 3:25 pm 
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post-structuralist
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Joined: Tue January 01, 2013 2:22 pm
Posts: 14819
Location: faked by jorge
cutuphalfdead wrote:
Kaius wrote:
cutuphalfdead wrote:
he's a fraud

Power resides where men believe it resides. No more and no less.

Like I said, fraud.

jim is jim

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Dev wrote:
im such a nice guy and malice is total garbage.


Spoiler: show
people change. people stay the same. people are so often disappointing - random PM, person unnamed


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 Post subject: Re: OFFICIAL RM CENSUS -- Results are in!
PostPosted: Sat April 22, 2017 3:27 pm 
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The Master
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Location: Sector 7-G
malice wrote:
cutuphalfdead wrote:
Kaius wrote:
cutuphalfdead wrote:
he's a fraud

Power resides where men believe it resides. No more and no less.

Like I said, fraud.

jim is jim

hot dogs are hot dogs


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 Post subject: Re: OFFICIAL RM CENSUS -- Results are in!
PostPosted: Sat April 22, 2017 3:28 pm 
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post-structuralist
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Joined: Tue January 01, 2013 2:22 pm
Posts: 14819
Location: faked by jorge
cutuphalfdead wrote:
malice wrote:
cutuphalfdead wrote:
Kaius wrote:
cutuphalfdead wrote:
he's a fraud

Power resides where men believe it resides. No more and no less.

Like I said, fraud.

jim is jim

hot dogs are hot dogs

are you flirting with me

_________________
Dev wrote:
im such a nice guy and malice is total garbage.


Spoiler: show
people change. people stay the same. people are so often disappointing - random PM, person unnamed


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 Post subject: Re: OFFICIAL RM CENSUS -- Results are in!
PostPosted: Sat April 22, 2017 3:28 pm 
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The Master
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Joined: Tue January 01, 2013 2:04 pm
Posts: 46613
Location: Sector 7-G
malice wrote:
cutuphalfdead wrote:
malice wrote:
cutuphalfdead wrote:
Kaius wrote:
cutuphalfdead wrote:
he's a fraud

Power resides where men believe it resides. No more and no less.

Like I said, fraud.

jim is jim

hot dogs are hot dogs

are you flirting with me

always


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 Post subject: Re: OFFICIAL RM CENSUS -- Results are in!
PostPosted: Sat April 22, 2017 3:29 pm 
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post-structuralist
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Joined: Tue January 01, 2013 2:22 pm
Posts: 14819
Location: faked by jorge
cutuphalfdead wrote:
malice wrote:
cutuphalfdead wrote:
malice wrote:
cutuphalfdead wrote:
Kaius wrote:
cutuphalfdead wrote:
he's a fraud

Power resides where men believe it resides. No more and no less.

Like I said, fraud.

jim is jim

hot dogs are hot dogs

are you flirting with me

always

has dev hit on you yet?

_________________
Dev wrote:
im such a nice guy and malice is total garbage.


Spoiler: show
people change. people stay the same. people are so often disappointing - random PM, person unnamed


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 Post subject: Re: OFFICIAL RM CENSUS -- Results are in!
PostPosted: Sat April 22, 2017 3:31 pm 
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The Master
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Joined: Tue January 01, 2013 2:04 pm
Posts: 46613
Location: Sector 7-G
malice wrote:
cutuphalfdead wrote:
malice wrote:
cutuphalfdead wrote:
malice wrote:
cutuphalfdead wrote:
Kaius wrote:
cutuphalfdead wrote:
he's a fraud

Power resides where men believe it resides. No more and no less.

Like I said, fraud.

jim is jim

hot dogs are hot dogs

are you flirting with me

always

has dev hit on you yet?

oh heavens now


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 Post subject: Re: OFFICIAL RM CENSUS -- Results are in!
PostPosted: Sat April 22, 2017 3:31 pm 
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Stone's Bitch
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Joined: Tue January 01, 2013 6:47 pm
Posts: 5764
Location: unnamed mental hospital
stip wrote:
so was I. It was a sophie's choice of a post


sometimes you gotta drop macauley culkin to save elijah wood.

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Wendy Carlos's Twin wrote:
Well fuckhead,


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 Post subject: Re: OFFICIAL RM CENSUS -- Results are in!
PostPosted: Sat April 22, 2017 5:08 pm 
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Fake NYC Setlist Relayer
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Joined: Tue January 01, 2013 5:53 pm
Posts: 7747
Who lives in the middle east?


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 Post subject: Re: OFFICIAL RM CENSUS -- Results are in!
PostPosted: Sat April 22, 2017 5:36 pm 
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Stone's Bitch
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Joined: Tue January 01, 2013 6:47 pm
Posts: 5764
Location: unnamed mental hospital
Myriad Jews, Palestinians, Arabs, etc.

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Wendy Carlos's Twin wrote:
Well fuckhead,


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 Post subject: Re: OFFICIAL RM CENSUS -- Results are in!
PostPosted: Sun April 23, 2017 2:25 am 
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Joined: Wed December 19, 2012 7:17 pm
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bada wrote:
Who lives in the middle east?

maybe mayaan took this?!


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 Post subject: Re: OFFICIAL RM CENSUS -- Results are in!
PostPosted: Sun April 23, 2017 5:19 am 
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"You kids quit having fun with the word filter!"
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Joined: Tue January 01, 2013 3:35 pm
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Location: don't PM me I don't have anything
Yeah Maayan is in the middle east. Not sure if she took this though... I'll ask her

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tragabigzanda wrote:
Stop it, this is pissing me off.


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 Post subject: Re: OFFICIAL RM CENSUS -- Results are in!
PostPosted: Sun April 23, 2017 6:44 am 
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10Club Complaint Department
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Joined: Tue January 01, 2013 11:46 pm
Posts: 15913
anyway congrats Jorge. you're as popular as Joey. that's huge.

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The Argonaut wrote:
Dev thinks that his philosophical rants make sense and are easily followable and logical.


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 Post subject: Re: OFFICIAL RM CENSUS -- Results are in!
PostPosted: Sun April 23, 2017 7:41 am 
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"You kids quit having fun with the word filter!"
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Joined: Tue January 01, 2013 3:35 pm
Posts: 27213
Location: don't PM me I don't have anything
Thank you. I feel good about it.

_________________
tragabigzanda wrote:
Stop it, this is pissing me off.


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 Post subject: Re: OFFICIAL RM CENSUS
PostPosted: Sun April 23, 2017 11:19 am 
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Broken Tamborine
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Joined: Wed January 02, 2013 4:06 am
Posts: 271
Missed all the Monty Hall discussion so apologies if this is completely dead ground by now but here's my attempt to explain it.

Higgs wrote:
Essentially, the only way you don't win the car if you swap doors is if you happened to originally pick the door that the car was behind. That means you have a 1/3 chance of picking the door with the car if you don't swap against a 2/3 chance of winning the car if you do swap.


This is 100% right and the most succinct explanation but I'll try to extrapolate it to be more digestible.

Key thing to remember is you are dealing with statistical likelihood. Choosing to switch does not guarantee you a car but it does increase your chance. What that actually means is if you got to play the game many, many times you would end up with significantly more cars if you always switched.

To show this lets play the game 100 times and ALWAYS switch.

That results in 33 times where you will have chosen the car door straight off (because you have a 1 in 3 chance of picking the car in your initial guess). When you subsequently switch you will dick yourself out of the car (in this scenario it doesn't matter which door the host chose to reveal to you - either would have shown you a goat).

BUT

The remaining 67 times you will have chosen a goat door in your first choice. This means that host has a car door and a goat door left from which to reveal something to you. He will always reveal a goat door, thus removing the only remaining negative selection if you were to switch.

Once again, this doesn't guarantee you the car. If you only played this once there would still be a 33% chance you'd end up with a goat by choosing to switch. So you could still very easily be kicking yourself whilst you're forced to grin and wave with Drew Carey. Get to play this out 20 or more times and you would start to see the value of switching.

Ultimately, if you played 100 times and NEVER switched, you would end up with 33 cars. If you played 100 times and ALWAYS switched you would end up with 67 cars.

Edit: you're vs. your because I'm an idiot


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 Post subject: Re: OFFICIAL RM CENSUS -- Results are in!
PostPosted: Sun April 23, 2017 11:43 am 
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Joined: Tue January 01, 2013 3:17 pm
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Location: right there
I went back to the original question and turns out I read it wrong. I read it as the host knew the car was behind door No. 1, so I was thinking "why would I switch? it says right in the question, it's behind door NO. 1!"
It makes no difference but now I understand why the 10 pages of debate better.

_________________
Art never killed anybody.


Last edited by doone on Sun April 23, 2017 11:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: OFFICIAL RM CENSUS -- Results are in!
PostPosted: Sun April 23, 2017 12:27 pm 
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Worst Moderator
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Joined: Tue January 01, 2013 2:48 pm
Posts: 44629
theplatypus wrote:
Yeah Maayan is in the middle east. Not sure if she took this though... I'll ask her

She didn't

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Clouuuuds Rolll byyy...BANG BANG BANG BANG


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 Post subject: Re: OFFICIAL RM CENSUS
PostPosted: Sun April 23, 2017 12:44 pm 
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Stone's Bitch
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Joined: Tue January 01, 2013 6:47 pm
Posts: 5764
Location: unnamed mental hospital
Citizen Dick wrote:
Missed all the Monty Hall discussion so apologies if this is completely dead ground by now but here's my attempt to explain it.

Higgs wrote:
Essentially, the only way you don't win the car if you swap doors is if you happened to originally pick the door that the car was behind. That means you have a 1/3 chance of picking the door with the car if you don't swap against a 2/3 chance of winning the car if you do swap.


This is 100% right and the most succinct explanation but I'll try to extrapolate it to be more digestible.

Key thing to remember is you are dealing with statistical likelihood. Choosing to switch does not guarantee you a car but it does increase your chance. What that actually means is if you got to play the game many, many times you would end up with significantly more cars if you always switched.

To show this lets play the game 100 times and ALWAYS switch.

That results in 33 times where you will have chosen the car door straight off (because you have a 1 in 3 chance of picking the car in your initial guess). When you subsequently switch you will dick yourself out of the car (in this scenario it doesn't matter which door the host chose to reveal to you - either would have shown you a goat).

BUT

The remaining 67 times you will have chosen a goat door in your first choice. This means that host has a car door and a goat door left from which to reveal something to you. He will always reveal a goat door, thus removing the only remaining negative selection if you were to switch.

Once again, this doesn't guarantee you the car. If you only played this once there would still be a 33% chance you'd end up with a goat by choosing to switch. So you could still very easily be kicking yourself whilst you're forced to grin and wave with Drew Carey. Get to play this out 20 or more times and you would start to see the value of switching.

Ultimately, if you played 100 times and NEVER switched, you would end up with 33 cars. If you played 100 times and ALWAYS switched you would end up with 67 cars.

Edit: you're vs. your because I'm an idiot

TLDR:
Spoiler: show
Image

_________________
Wendy Carlos's Twin wrote:
Well fuckhead,


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 Post subject: Re: OFFICIAL RM CENSUS
PostPosted: Sun April 23, 2017 12:51 pm 
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Broken Tamborine
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Joined: Wed January 02, 2013 4:06 am
Posts: 271
evenslow wrote:
Citizen Dick wrote:
Missed all the Monty Hall discussion so apologies if this is completely dead ground by now but here's my attempt to explain it.

Higgs wrote:
Essentially, the only way you don't win the car if you swap doors is if you happened to originally pick the door that the car was behind. That means you have a 1/3 chance of picking the door with the car if you don't swap against a 2/3 chance of winning the car if you do swap.


This is 100% right and the most succinct explanation but I'll try to extrapolate it to be more digestible.

Key thing to remember is you are dealing with statistical likelihood. Choosing to switch does not guarantee you a car but it does increase your chance. What that actually means is if you got to play the game many, many times you would end up with significantly more cars if you always switched.

To show this lets play the game 100 times and ALWAYS switch.

That results in 33 times where you will have chosen the car door straight off (because you have a 1 in 3 chance of picking the car in your initial guess). When you subsequently switch you will dick yourself out of the car (in this scenario it doesn't matter which door the host chose to reveal to you - either would have shown you a goat).

BUT

The remaining 67 times you will have chosen a goat door in your first choice. This means that host has a car door and a goat door left from which to reveal something to you. He will always reveal a goat door, thus removing the only remaining negative selection if you were to switch.

Once again, this doesn't guarantee you the car. If you only played this once there would still be a 33% chance you'd end up with a goat by choosing to switch. So you could still very easily be kicking yourself whilst you're forced to grin and wave with Drew Carey. Get to play this out 20 or more times and you would start to see the value of switching.

Ultimately, if you played 100 times and NEVER switched, you would end up with 33 cars. If you played 100 times and ALWAYS switched you would end up with 67 cars.

Edit: you're vs. your because I'm an idiot

TLDR:
Spoiler: show
Image


Glad I could help.


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 Post subject: Re: OFFICIAL RM CENSUS -- Results are in!
PostPosted: Mon April 24, 2017 6:39 pm 
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Rank This Poster
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Joined: Tue January 01, 2013 9:08 pm
Posts: 3948
Location: 5th floor, Bay 8, position 5851
Well, I certainly seem to fit into most of our demographics.


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